Market Suddenly "Black Swan", Crude Oil New Year'S First Round Skyrocketing, PTA Stop And Rebound, The Year Before The Stocking Node, Polyester Filament Also Rose To Move?

On the morning of January 3rd, the Iraqi capital Baghdad Airport was attacked by 3 rockets in the early hours of 3 hours, killing at least 8 people. US officials confirmed that the United States launched an attack on two Iran related targets in Baghdad on Friday. The US Iraq conflict escalated again, attracting the first surge of crude oil in the new year.

On the morning of January 3rd, New York oil and New York crude oil rose in early January 3rd, of which New York crude oil rose further to 4.47%, the highest price being 63.84 U.S. dollars / barrel, a new high since September 2019, and the oil price rose 4.44% to the highest 69.16 U.S. dollars / barrel.

　　 PTA, glycol futures face up

In the early stage, due to the commissioning of the 40 million ton / year integrated refining and chemical integration project of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, it gave the PTA market a major negative advantage, and PTA futures opened up a downward trend. But this was boosted by the sharp rise in crude oil, and PTA futures rebounded and pulled up rapidly after the opening, and stood on 5000 points again. As of the end of 3 afternoon closing, Zheng Shang PTA futures main contract 2005 to 5012 yuan / ton closed, or 0.97%.

　　 As a raw material for polyester, ethylene glycol market has also risen. As of the end of 3 days afternoon, the 2005 contract of big business ethylene glycol futures contract closed at 4655 yuan / ton, or 0.89%.

　　 Under the stimulation of international oil prices and polyester raw materials, although the focus of recent quotations of polyester manufacturers is still based on stability, the overall production and marketing of this market is actually rising.

On the afternoon of 3 th, the purchasing mood of weaving factories increased. The trading atmosphere of the polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was significantly improved. The average production and sales of the mainstream factories were around 136%, and some of the better factories were sold near 120%, 246%, 280% and 300%.

　　 At the beginning of the new year, the raw material of polyester has started to erupt, and the production and marketing has finally thrown off the recent gloomy haze. Once again, the raw material polyester filament can still rise again in the pre season preparation boom.

Yes! Market demand still exists, polyester low inventory

At the end of 2019, the market has been in a quiet stage. In fact, most textile people hope that the rise in crude oil prices will drive PTA and MEG up. At the same time, the upstream profits will quickly spread to polyester industry, and the price of polyester factories can be raised and the weaving Market will be warmer.

From this production and marketing, polyester raw materials end up, polyester filament production and sales on the enthusiastic response, indicating that the market is still in demand, some of the wait-and-see enterprises in this time on the hand. In particular, if the price of raw polyester can be increased, it will surely give the weaving manufacturer a "reassurance". Raw materials have gone up, indicating that the market is showing signs of improvement.

At the same time, from the statistics of China's silk net, the overall stock of the polyester market is concentrated in 9-18 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are stored for 3-7 days, FDY stocks are close to 7-12 days, while DTY stocks are about 14-19 days. Looking at the whole year, the current polyester stock can be said to be a low level in the year. When polyester enterprises are stockpiles, they usually take price promotion measures, but polyester is now low inventory, which provides certain support for the price rise of raw materials.

　　 No! There are too many uncertainties on the cost side, so the weaving factory has no money to pay the bill.

Although crude oil has a decisive impact on the whole industry chain, but crude oil is too uncertain, and it will rise tomorrow, or it may fall tomorrow. At the same time, --PTA and ethylene glycol as raw materials for polyester filament have been mixed up recently. Especially in the first quarter of this year, new installations are expected to be put into operation, and the pressure on the supply side is increasing, which will inevitably impact on prices, and will hardly form a powerful assisting for the price rise of polyester filament.

But no matter whether the price of polyester rises or not, the most important thing is that the weaving factory has no money to pay the bill. This year, the problem of money recovery is more severe than before. When the holiday is coming, workers' wages, water and electricity, rent and so on are all the mountains on the weaving factory. The only funds must be allocated rationally. Without money, there will be no price increase. At the same time, this year the general holiday is earlier, the dyeing factory basically has 10 days or so to have a holiday, the dye factory can not deliver the goods before a year, the weaving factory also cannot order again, the raw material also did not have the price of the bottom.