50 Cities Sold More Than 4 Trillion Yuan Last Year, Housing Prices Get Together To Return To A Second Tier City.

In 2019, the property market was constantly regulated, but the total land market in the 50 major cities still hit a new high, and some cities had more than 200 billion land sales.

It is noteworthy that the differentiation between cities is obvious, developers have returned to the second tier, and the three or four line land market is in the doldrums.

Changes in land supply and investment will lead to changes in the future market supply and demand and supply. In addition to the scarcity of housing supply in Shenzhen, in most cities, supply and demand balance or oversupply began to emerge. For example, in 2019, the real estate market in Beijing was in a depressed state. The main reason is the limited supply of competitive housing and huge inventory.

On the whole, the price of land has been shot high, thus affecting the pricing of new houses and pushing up housing prices. Under the tone of housing speculation, future housing prices will be further compressed.

Serious market division

Central Plains real estate data show that in 2019, the total land market in the 50 largest cities in the country remained high, and the total land sales totaled 4 trillion and 410 billion, up 19.33% over the same period last year, setting a new record.

Some cities earn more than 200 billion of their land sales, of which Hangzhou is the largest, reaching 283 billion 600 million.

The rest is like Shanghai selling land 199 billion 200 million, Guangzhou 186 billion 400 million, Suzhou 185 billion. A total of 35 cities have sold more than 50 billion, refresh their historical records, and the amount of land sold in 68% cities has increased year by year.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, said that compared with the strict land control in 2018, the land market constraints in 2019 were reduced. The fine-tuning of the policy made the developers' enthusiasm for taking the land significantly improved, and has been in a high position since the two quarter.

Because of the increase in the number of enterprises, the enthusiasm of the enterprises has also increased significantly, especially in the second echelon Housing enterprises.

As of November 2019, the top 50 housing companies took more than 2 trillion, up 17% in 2018, setting a new record. Among them, the largest number of Vanke 157 billion, Biguiyuan 123 billion 700 million, Baoli 96 billion 400 million, take more than 50 billion of the housing enterprises as high as 9, and 38 Housing enterprises to take more than 20 billion, refresh the same period of record.

It is impressive that in the land market in 2019, some central enterprises and state-owned enterprises were active or radical. Such as Pauli, Zhonghai, Yuexiu and so on, in Beijing, Guangzhou, Foshan and other cities to take a lot.

However, the property market is obviously different from the previous three years, and there has also been obvious differentiation between different urban areas. The interest of developers has shifted to the second tier, and the proportion of transactions has increased by 3 percentage points.

Relatively speaking, the three or four line of non premium land pricing and turnover have been down and sluggish, the Central Plains believes that some cities in the three or four line do not rule out further fine-tuning of the property market policy.

"Now the market as a whole downward, in a second tier cities can take place to improve sales, profits compared to the three or four tier cities larger." A developer said yes.

In the middle of 2019, the second tier cities had ushered in the rise of land prices. For example, Shenzhen made several land kings in June and received about 20000000000 gold a day.

However, after entering the second half of the year, due to the continuous tightening of financing channels, the pressure of Housing enterprises' capital is huge, and the enthusiasm of the housing enterprises has been greatly reduced. Most of the second and second tier businesses have been trading at a low premium or even a zero premium. The overall premium rate has dropped to below 10%, and the market heat of the three or four tier cities has continued to fall.

Nationwide, krill data showed that as of the end of November 2019, the total land area of the 300 cities in China was 2 billion 300 million square meters, which was 3.7% lower than that in the same period in 2018. Considering the difference between the volume of November and the volume of 430 million square meters in last year's total volume, the total land market in 2019 is difficult to reach the level of 2018, and it is expected to show a downward trend.

The growth rate of land sales has also slowed down. By the end of November 2019, the total amount of operating land for 300 cities in the country was 54169 billion yuan, up 10% from the same period last year, narrowing significantly compared with the 16% in 2018.

Mr Ke believes that this is mainly due to tighter capital environment supervision in the second half of 2019, financing difficulties for developers, tighter funds and declining enthusiasm.

Supply affects housing prices

Jump out of the land market itself, another concern is the conduction effect of land price on housing prices. In the past, land prices were considered to be the forerunner of housing prices because of the fact that "flour is more expensive than bread".

Kerr statistics, land prices in 2019 did not continue the trend of price fall in 2018, the 300 cities nationwide land transaction price rose sharply, increased to 2396 yuan / square meter, up 13.7%, up to a record high.

In the second tier, most cities increased the supply of high-quality plots. For example, there were many unrestricted homestead in Beijing, and the supply of homestead in Shenzhen also increased significantly.

However, from the perspective of the new housing market and the second-hand housing market, the impact of land price on housing prices is weakening. Because the overall price is not high, the market's expectations and judgment logic are changing.

Zhongyuan pointed out that the land transaction premium rate was greatly reduced in 2019, which objectively suppressed the optimistic expectation of rising housing prices.

For example, the average premium rate for land transactions in Beijing is only 9.4%, down from 14% in 2018, the lowest in recent years.

A total of 50 different types of residential land, the average premium rate is only 10.5%, 18 are the bottom price transaction, the total number of commercial housing housing plots containing 35 competing plots, the premium rate of 0 plots of up to 12, and more recently, a number of plots of land price.

On the whole, the premium rate also showed a downward trend, from 15.8% in 2018 to 13.5% in 2019, down 2.3 percentage points over the same period last year. In the three quarter, under the influence of the tightening of financing channels for housing enterprises, the decline was very significant. The fourth quarter basically continued to decline, and the prudence of developers took a significant boost.

Up to the fourth quarter of 2019, the premium rate of all cities had dropped below 10%, especially the first tier cities' premium rate has fallen below 5%, and most of the plots have been traded at the base price. The premium rate has dropped to 8% and 9.7% respectively, and the land premium rate has also dropped to a relatively low level.

He pointed out that land prices in 2020 could not rise further. In 2019, some plots with better conditions appeared due to the low rate of return on investment. There was no sign up and filming. Under this influence, in order to ensure the supply, the government lowered the price expectation appropriately, and the land transaction price had dropped to the level of the same period last year at the end of 2019. Due to the weak expectation of capital market environment, the attitude of the housing enterprises to the land will be more cautious when the financing cost is high, and the land price in 2020 is also difficult to go up.

In addition, the gradual change of land supply structure is expected to radically change the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market and curb the sharp rise in housing prices.

The most typical example is Beijing. Since June 10, 2018, the total number of restricted entries has reached 76, more than 10 million square meters, and the number of residential units has reached 57344 sets, and the total number of net signed data is 24089 sets. The average net sign average price is 48615 yuan per square meter, the net sign completes 2 million 490 thousand square meters, according to the transaction number computation, the net sign completion rate is only 42%.

A large number of projects concentrated in the market, bringing market supply and inventory increasing. From the single month net sign data, Beijing has been a high level in recent months, but at the same time, the supply is bigger, the inventory is still backlog, and the limited competition room has been in the supply for more than 15 months.

Housing prices in Beijing fell sharply in 2019. As a large number of new houses led to the passenger flow, the second-hand housing market continued to slump, the overall decline of 15%-20%.

On a larger scale, in order to stabilize housing prices, the supply of land in key cities also increased significantly last year, such as Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Nanjing and other land supply exceeded the same period, and is expected to remain high in 2020.

In July last year, the draft amendment to the land management law deleted the "construction land must be state-owned", and cleared the legal obstacles for the collective land market, and the land supply channels were more diversified. This means that the supply of land and housing will increase in the mainstream cities in the future to further balance the supply and demand.

In 2019, the property market, except for the heat rising in Shenzhen near the end of the year, has seen a steady or slight decline in most other cities. In 2020, with the further improvement of land supply, the implementation of the implementation of the city strategy will make the national housing prices stable or normal.