Oil Price Surges To Polyester Market Opportunity. Spring Festival Polyester Filament Price Trend Steadily Rises.

After the death of senior commanders of the Iran army after the US air attack, the participants in the international energy market were "restless". Some analysts said in January 3rd that international oil prices could soar to $80 a barrel if escalating geopolitical tensions disrupt Middle East crude oil supply.

For the polyester industry, take this opportunity to see whether oil prices could soar to a high of $80. Polyester has taken the opportunity to get rid of oversupply, and the low price situation has become the focus of many people's attention.

Analysts: if the United States and Iraq fight, international oil prices will rise to $80 a barrel.

As news came out, international oil prices rose, and oil prices rose more than 4% after the January 3rd attacks. As of January 6th, Brent crude oil quoted 70.66 US dollars / barrel, or up to 3%; WTI crude oil quoted 64.53 US dollars / barrel, or 2.5%. In addition, China's crude oil rose more than 4% in the previous period and stood at 500 yuan / barrel. Some analysts believe that oil prices could soar to a high of $80.

On the impact of the air raid, Marinoff, managing director of the Agricultural Bank of London, told reporters on Friday, "maybe it is too early to draw a really limited conclusion about the overall impact of oil on Valentin". (Marinov) After all, the OPEC meeting was held just now. They reiterated the further reduction of production at the meeting. "

Marinoff said: "in addition, we expect oil production to reach a real peak this year, so this trend is likely to continue."

The International Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC OPEC) and the non OPEC oil producers alliance, sometimes called OPEC +, agreed to cut 500 thousand barrels a day from January 1st this year on the basis of 1 million 200 thousand barrels of daily production.

For the global market, the recent series of events can be described as the first "black swan" in 2020, and this "black swan" is becoming more and more colorful. The outbreak of the incident caused more intense turmoil and even civil war in Iraq, which led to the interruption of Iraq's oil production and exports. The United States and Iran had already been in a state of confrontation with Trump's severe sanctions, which greatly affected the uncertainty of the global crude oil market.

According to the analysis of the market in 2019, it is estimated that the average price of crude oil in 2020 will remain at 58 US dollars / barrel, and the crude oil price in 2021 will be 53 US dollars per barrel. The price of crude oil in 2019 will be higher and lower. But analysts at Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm, say Brent crude oil may remain at about $70 per barrel for short term, but if the conflict spreads to oil fields in southern Iraq or Iran harassing the fleet through the holmos Strait, Brent crude oil may rise to $80.

The strong rebound of international oil prices has injected a strong heart to the declining polyester market.

East wind blowing drum drums, who are afraid of the United States and Iran? But for the polyester industry, take this opportunity to see whether oil prices could soar to a high of $80. Polyester has taken the opportunity to get rid of oversupply, and the low price situation has become the focus of many people's attention.

According to industry analysis, this event is the "starting point" of the Middle East vortex in 2020. Once an extreme situation occurs, oil prices are likely to show explosive growth at some time in 2020. It is difficult to estimate the price and market trend of domestic oil industry, such as reserves and prices, and downstream industries such as oil.

The chemical fiber industry is closely related to oil. More than 90% of the products in the chemical fiber industry are based on petroleum raw materials. The raw materials of polyester, nylon, acrylic and polypropylene in the industrial chain all come from petroleum, and the demand for oil increases year by year. As a result, the price of naphtha, PX, PTA and other products followed the rise of crude oil prices, and the prices of downstream polyester products were also indirectly increased. Historically, crude oil prices fluctuated at US $10 per barrel, and the cost of polyethylene production fluctuated by US $100-110.

From the perspective of polyester production and marketing, in January 6th, the production and sales of polyester factories exceeded 200%, which is relatively rare in the second half of this year. It can be said that the last wave of polyester weaving market has come this year.

Prepare for the last stock preparation before the Spring Festival?

The US Iraq crisis is affecting the market nerves. The rising trend of crude oil has been irreversible, and the center of next cycle oil price will be raised wider. OPEC crude oil production plan continued, will affect the price of crude oil, so that crude oil prices continue to be high, will make the relevant chemical raw materials will be skyrocketing all over the line. With strong support from the news, the possibility of falling crude oil in the medium and short term is less likely, or will continue to rise to the next year. In this sense, it may be expensive to buy raw materials in the next year. Should we make preparations in advance?

Xiaobian believes that for the pre operation of polyester enterprises, the future price of polyester filament is unlikely to fall even if the international oil price fluctuates again. At present, the stock of polyester enterprises is in reasonable stock, and it is unlikely that the price reduction will act as a way to suppress market enthusiasm.

For pre - service weaving enterprises, there is still a low level of stocking tradition and raw materials inventory. If you want to hoard raw materials, the next week or the last chance this year. At the same time, according to the price statistics, although the price has risen in recent months, the price of polyester filament is still at a low level compared with the previous two years, and it is also within the acceptable range of the enterprise.

Conclusion: crude oil futures have been rising for several days, and the market of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been steadily rising.

The main reasons are as follows:

First, the international oil price tends to rise, which has a positive impact on polyester related products.

Second, there is a centralized maintenance plan for PTA and MEG production facilities, which will further reduce the level of market supply and help improve the market supply and demand pattern.

Third, the market price of polyester related products has dropped to the bottom of the cycle, and the raw material reserves of downstream factories are not high enough, and there is a traditional demand for stocking before the market.

To sum up, we expect that the market of polyester related products before the festival will keep rising. However, the order of the terminal textile industry is more serious with the Spring Festival factor. At the same time, the high inventory of weaving industry takes time to digest, and the market price keeps steady and has a rising trend.