CPI Rose 4.5% In December 2019 Compared To The Same Period Last Year. CPI Is Expected To Gradually Fall After The Holiday.

The national consumer price index (CPI), released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, rose 4.5% in 2019, up from last month, the same as last month. From the aspect of the ring ratio, CPI rose from flat to flat, which means that the situation of price continued to rise has been alleviated, and what is behind the data fluctuation?

CPI rose 4.5% in December 2019, and pork prices weakened.

From the year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 4.5%, the same as last month. Among them, the rise in food prices has come down, and the support for the continued rise in prices has weakened. (food prices rose 17.4% over the same period, or 1.7 percentage points), affecting CPI's rise of about 3.43 percentage points.

According to specific food, pork prices were still rising, but the rate of decline was larger (pork prices rose 97%, or 13.2 percentage points). In addition, beef, mutton, chicken, duck meat and egg prices rose 7.3% to 20.4% year-on-year, varying degrees of decline.

Fresh fruit prices continued to decline, (fresh fruit prices fell by 8% over the same period last year, and the decline increased by 1.2 percentage points). It is worth noting that only a year-on-year increase in fresh vegetable prices has been reported in major foods (fresh vegetable prices rose 10.8% over the same period last year).

Insiders say that the price of vegetables and fruits is mixed, which has limited impact on the price trend. At the moment, the trend of pork prices should still be paid attention to.

Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the Institute of economic thought and practice, Tsinghua University, The rise in the overall price of CPI affected by the rise in pork prices has not fundamentally changed, but it is changing in the right direction.

Data show that pork prices rose by 97% in 2019 and December, up from 110% over the past few months. Judging from the chain ratio, the price of pork rose from 3.8% last month to 5.6%, affecting CPI's decrease of 0.27 percentage points. In the future, with the gradual recovery of pork production capacity and supply, the price of pork will continue downward.

PPI fell by 0.5% in December 2019, and the decline continued to narrow.

Another index PPI released today, that is, the producer price index of industrial producers, fell by 0.5% over the same period last year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from last month. From the aspect of the ring ratio, PPI dropped from 0.1% last month to flat. This means that the price of industrial goods is getting warmer.

In December 2019, the narrowing of PPI's year-on-year fall was mainly caused by price fluctuations in producer goods (producer prices fell by 1.2%, and the decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points). Among the main industries, the black metal ore mining industry increased by 8.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from last month, and non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry (up 1.1%, 0.6 percentage points).

The decline has narrowed down the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and chemicals; petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries; ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing.

In addition, the oil and natural gas extraction industry increased by 5.8%. Industry insiders say that the rise in industrial prices is mainly related to rising international commodity prices and warmer domestic demand. Future infrastructure investment and other efforts will drive some industrial prices to continue to rise.

Wang Jun, Dean of Futures Research Institute, founder and medium-term: The prices of raw materials, including iron ore, rebar and wire materials, have been on the rise.

Experts: CPI will gradually fall after Spring Festival

Galaxy Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Xu Dongshi: In January, influenced by the Spring Festival, the price of food was generally up. The CPI was estimated to be between 5.3% and 5.5%. In the end of the Spring Festival in February, CPI is expected to come down year by year, even if pork prices are still high, affecting the CPI chain. CPI gradually dropped in 2020, and is expected to be below 3% in February.