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PTA Supply And Demand Gap Widened, Pre Holiday Market Passive Stalemate

2020/1/13 10:06:00 0

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Since entering the January, although PTA has been affected by the relationship between the United States and Iran, the price has been rising. However, the ideal situation of "New Year's new atmosphere" has not been able to continue. At present, the stock of polyester plant is relatively healthy, and the tradition of stocking up before the end of the year is still in existence. However, the downward trend of downstream start-up is still unchanged, and the demand and supply balance is weakening, and the balance between supply and demand of PTA is expanding obviously.

surface 12020 year One Month forecast PTA Maintenance losses

Unit: 10000 tons

Enterprise name	capacity	repair time	Planned restart time	One Monthly maintenance days	Amount of loss
Jialong Petrochemical Company	Sixty	Eight Parking on 2 August	Restart time to be determined	Thirty-one	Five point three one
Yangzi Petrochemical	Thirty-five	Twelve Parking on 12 August	Restart time to be determined	Thirty-one	Three point one zero
Three lane	One hundred and twenty	Twelve Parking on 20 August	One Restart near 4	Three	One point zero three
Yanda Shanda	Two hundred and twenty-five	Twelve Parking on 29 August	One Near 11-12	Twelve	Seven point seven one
Sichuan's ability to vote	One hundred	Twelve Parking on 29 August	Postponed until February 18th	Thirty-one	Eight point eight six
Yisheng Ningbo	Sixty-five	One Parking on 1 August	Restart time to be determined	Thirty-one	Five point seven six
Zhuhai BP	One hundred and ten	One Parking on 2 August	One Near 15	Fourteen	Four Point Four Zero
Fuhai creation	Four hundred and fifty	One Load fell to 6 near 3.	Plan to bring up 8-9 yuan by the end of the week.	Eight point four	Ten point eight zero
Yisheng Ningbo	Two hundred and twenty	Scheduled for the end of January -2 months	Fifteen day	Three	One point eight nine
Total loss					Forty-eight point eight six
Estimated operating rate					88.20%

Source: lung Chung

According to the statistics of various sets of equipment overhaul by long Zhong information monitoring, it is found that the PTA loss in January is estimated at 488 thousand and 600 tons (see Table 1). It is estimated that the output of PTA will reach 3 million 990 thousand tons in January, and the operating rate will be around 88.20%.

surface Two polyester One Monthly scheduled maintenance and restart list

Unit: 10000 tons

factory	Involving capacity	repair time	Estimated restart time	Products involved
Anji Huayi	Eighteen	Twelve month Thirty-one day	Expected overhaul One Months	Filament and staple fiber
Fujian Bai Hong	Twenty	One month One day	Expected overhaul One Months	Polyester filament
Fujian Jinxing	Thirty	One month Two day	It is expected to restart after the year.	Filament and staple fiber
Xiaoshan Lian Da	Four point five	One month Two day	Expected overhaul One Months	Polyester filament
Ningbo Quan di	Twenty-five	One Beginning of the month	Undetermined	Filament and staple fiber
Zhejiang Tiansheng	Forty	One month Four day	After the Spring Festival	Polyester filament
Haixin, Suqian	Fifty	One month Five day	Expected overhaul One Months	Polyester filament
Wu Jianglixin	Eight	One month Five day	Two Beginning of the month	Filament and slice
Taicang Shen Jiu	Forty	One month Eight day	Two Beginning of the month	Polyester filament
Yizheng chemical fibre	Ten	Eleven month Twenty-five day	One month Fifteen day	Polyester staple fiber
Zhuhai Huarun	Thirty	Twelve The first ten days of a month	One month Ten day	PET bottle flakes
Xiamen Xiang Lu	Thirty-six	Twelve month Twenty day	One month Ten day	Filament and staple fiber
Dragon Aromatics	Twenty-four	Twelve month Twenty day	One month Ten day	PET bottle flakes
Tong Kun Heng Sheng	Ten	Twelve month Twenty day	Expected to overhaul for one month.	Polyester filament
Hainan Yisheng	Seventy-five	Twelve month Twenty day	One month Ten day	PET bottle flakes
New Feng Ming	Thirty	One month Ten day	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Changshu Heng Yi	Eighteen	One month Ten day	Expected overhaul One Months	Polyester filament
Zhangjiagang Xinxin	Fifteen	One month Ten day	Expected overhaul One Months	Polyester filament
Ningbo Jinsheng	Ten	One month Ten day	After the Spring Festival	Polyester filament
Ningbo Huaxing	Twenty	One month Ten day	Two month Five day	Polyester filament
Ningbo Zhuo Cheng	Seven point two	One month Ten day	After the Spring Festival	Polyester filament
Fujian latitude and longitude	Twenty-five	One month Eleven day	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Jiangsu Hongtai	Twenty-five	One month Twelve day	Expected overhaul One Months	Polyester filament
Fujian latitude and longitude	Twenty	One month Thirteen day	Undetermined	Polyester staple fiber
Ying Xiang	Twenty	One month Thirteen day	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Changle, Taicang	Twenty-five	One Mid month	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Ningbo Dafa	Twenty-two	One Mid month	Undetermined	Polyester staple fiber
Foville	Twenty-five	One Mid month	Undetermined	Polyester staple fiber
Jiangyin three lane	Forty	One Late mid month	After the Spring Festival	Polyester staple fiber
Jiangyin Huahong	Twenty	One Late mid month	After the Spring Festival	Polyester staple fiber
A large factory	Thirty	One Mid month	Undetermined	Polyester staple fiber
Xinmin	Thirty	One month Sixteen day	Undetermined	Polyester filament
Zhejiang Jiabao	Forty	One month Seventeen day	Estimate Three Restart at the end of the month	Filament and slice
Somlet	Twenty	One In mid December, we will gradually lose weight.	Expected overhaul One Months	PET chip
Huaya	Thirty	One month Twenty-two day	Two month Eighteen day	Polyester filament
Chuzhou Anxing	Twenty	One End of month	Expected overhaul One Months	Polyester staple fiber
Sichuan Hui Wei Shi	Fifteen	One End of month Two Beginning of the month	It is expected to be servicing for half a month.	Polyester staple fiber
Ancient towpath	One hundred and twenty	Two Mid month	Expected to overhaul for one month.	Filament and slice
Kelvin	Forty	Three month	Expected to overhaul for one month.	Filament and slice
Total	One thousand and eighty-seven point seven

Source: lung Chung

According to Longzhong information, polyester enterprises have gradually joined the maintenance queue in January. Although the maintenance devices such as Xiang Lu, Tenglong and Yisheng in Hainan have been restarted in the middle of the day, however, many sets of devices such as Jingwei, Ying Xiang, Hongtai, San Fang lane and Huahong are about to enter the parking state. Therefore, it is estimated that the average starting point of polyester will be around 76-77% in January, and the output is expected to be 3 million 890 thousand tons, and the demand for PTA should be 3 million 326 thousand tons.

chart 1 PTA Processing fee chart

Source: lung Chung

At the present stage, the PTA processing fee is on the rise. As of January 10th, the PTA processing fee to 528.95 yuan / ton. Compared with the gradual increase of supply in the market, there is a risk of further decline. The 500 processing fees or higher prices are already high.

In the middle of the vicinity, Yanda Chuang 2 million 250 thousand tons, Zhuhai BP110 million tons of equipment is expected to restart, and Fuhai 4 million 500 thousand tons of equipment load is facing improvement, and Hengli Petrochemical 4 phase has been commissioning, qualified products are coming soon, so the operating rate and output will increase, then the processing fee is again facing the risk of downshifting. Although there is no possibility of war between the two sides, the recent instability in the Middle East will not be quickly subsided, and the further easing of Global trade risk will also bring good results. Therefore, we still need to pay attention to the fluctuation of cost side.

surface 32020 year 1-3 Monthly forecast PTA Supply and demand balance sheet

Unit: 10000 tons

index	One Month E	Two Month E	Three Month E
yield	Three hundred and ninety-nine	Three hundred and ninety-three	Four hundred and forty-five
Imported	Six	Six	Six
Total supply	Four hundred and five	Three hundred and ninety-nine	Four hundred and fifty-one
Exit	Six	Six	Six
Downstream consumption	Three hundred and forty-four point six	Three hundred and thirty-seven point seven six	Four hundred and one point zero three
Aggregate demand	Three hundred and fifty point six	Three hundred and forty-three point seven six	Four hundred and seven point zero three
Supply and demand gap	Fifty-four point four	Fifty-five point two four	Forty-three point nine seven

Source: lung Chung

According to the supply and demand balance table, there was no centralized maintenance in PTA in 1-3 months. The operation of the plant was relatively stable, and new installations were put into operation. Downstream demand was affected by the traditional holiday of Spring Festival, and the start-up of the device was greatly reduced. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, supply and demand have accumulated too much.