"88 Curse" Failure? Traders Hold High Positions To Catch Up With The Spring Market.

Under the spring impetuous market, institutional investors are enthusiastic about getting on the bus.

Information from a number of brokerage research reports shows that the average stock position of public offering stock funds is over 90%, and the position of partial equity hybrid funds is also in a higher position. At the end of last year, the average position of private equity strategy funds reached 77.01%, the highest point of last year.

All along, A shares have a "88 curse", that is, when the fund position of partial equity funds reaches 88% or more, A shares will meet with the top down. Will it be fulfilled this time?

According to the twenty-first Century economic report, the fund managers did not see eye to eye on the next market risk. They thought the risk was not high enough to maintain high positions.

High storehouse operation

"The recent A share market trend is relatively strong, and the spring offensive is becoming more and more intense, so the higher position of the fund is a normal phenomenon, which reflects the optimistic view of the market for the future market." In January 14th, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said.

The weekly reports from Tianfeng securities fund style configuration monitoring show that as of January 10, 2020, the median position of general equity funds was 90.5%, while the median of the equity hybrid funds was 87.3%. Other brokerage data also showed similar fund high position data. The quantitative analysis data released by state securities in January 13th showed that the stock fund has broken through 90% positions as a whole.

In fact, since the middle of November last year, public offerings have been maintained at high positions. At that time, the positions of general stock funds had been around 88%, 90% at the end of 12, and more than 90% positions in early January 2020. However, at least in the two months, "88 curse" did not appear.

However, when the market offensive is stronger, what choices will the fund managers make?

"What I have observed is that the overall position of public funds is relatively high. At present, I keep the high and middle positions, but the positions are always stable, and I do not frequently do the positions. In January 14th, a Shenzhen fund manager told reporters.

"In fact, over the past few years, more and more funds have not made much choice, so it is quite normal for public funds to maintain a higher position." The Shenzhen fund manager said.

A fund manager last year also said, "at present, the positions of public offering funds are generally high. There is no big risk in the market. Incremental capital is coming into the market. The policy is also good, and the impact of trade war on the market is also weakening.

Yang Delong said, "88 curse" mainly refers to the higher position of the fund, the short space is not big, may affect the short-term market trend, but "88 curse" does not necessarily mean that the market will fall. Sometimes after the 88% position of the fund appears, the market will continue to attack, even if there is a callback, it is also a periodic callback.

In fact, there were a lot of fund in 2020. For example, in January 13th, three new funds sold out in one day, raising nearly 17 billion yuan. In January 8th, the Schroder core driver of the Bank of China raised about 54000000000 yuan a day.

"Fund explosion frequently appears, showing strong willingness to enter investors." Yang Delong said.

Coincidentally, from the end of last year, private placement is also in a higher position. Data from private row nets show that in December 31, 2019, the average position of private equity funds in stock strategy had reached 77.01%, the highest point in 2019.

However, the 10 billion private placement presents another scene. Data show that as of December 31, 2019, the 10 billion private placement index was 74.86%. In 2019, the highest position of 10 billion private placement was 83.12% in February 1st last year. This means that the current position of 10 billion private placement has dropped by nearly 10 points compared with the highest level last year.

Private equity managers have different ways of doing things.

Li Kejie, general manager of the Hong Kong Private Equity Fund, said: "the market is improving in the near future. At this time, the opening of institutions is normal, sometimes it is a process of interaction: the market is good, the warehouse is open, the market is good.

However, Li Kejie reversed the operation: "we will sell when we are rising, so now the position is lighter than 3000."

Zhao Lisong, chairman of the upper German Valley investment, also said, "our products have been lowered to 30% positions, which turned out to be 60% positions. In the short term, the risk of A shares is still relatively large, so it is not appropriate to hold high positions before the Spring Festival. During this period, we gradually reduced our position and did not add any more.

"Jinyang fund currently stands at 9." Xu Jinghui, partner of Jinyang fund, said: "if there are risk factors in the near future, it will be reduced. Due to the long holiday and uncertainty, it is suggested that the festival be reduced.

Multi point flowering

Data from Tianfeng securities show that in the past two months, in the allocation of public funds, the market position declined, and the small positions rose.

In general equity funds, for example, the small cap in November 15, 2019 was 31.40%, followed by wave advance. By January 10, 2020, the small cap rose to 37.10%, while the market position dropped from 57.10% in November 15, 2019 to 53.40% in January 10, 2020.

In the specific industry direction, based on the classification of CITIC industries as the stock industry, as of January 10, 2020, the public fund has a high allocation weight in medicine, food and beverage, banking, non banking finance, electronic components, computers and other industries.

A number of fund managers interviewed by reporters said that in 2020, A shares were a structural market and generally favored technology, consumption and medical shares.

"From the plate ups and downs, it is still relatively hot technology direction, TMT, new energy vehicles and other gainers, in general, or the continuation of the four quarter of the style." An equity fund manager said.

A fund manager said that in the short term, because consumer goods, medical services and technology stocks have been more fully developed since the beginning of the year, and the margin of safety is relatively solid, the increase is small, and the direction of long-term valuation repair can be expected. However, in the long run, it is still a field representing the direction of economic transformation in the future, such as consumption, services, Internet and advanced manufacturing.

Zhao Lisong said, "in the future, we should be optimistic about new energy vehicles and technology stocks. These stocks still have absolute gains. In addition, we are closely concerned with white horse stocks and will intervene when we fall back to a reasonable price. "