Stocks Are High And Shipping Is Still Scarce. When Is The Pressure On Polyester Factories?

Following the opening of China Light Textile City in February 18th, today (February 21st), China's Eastern Silk Market, known as "China's first market," was officially opened.

On the other hand, with the continuation of the epidemic, there are about 6000000 tons of polyester production reduction or parking after the holiday. Up to now, the total start-up of polyester has dropped to a low level near 65%, far below the same level in previous years.

Will the two largest textile markets in Jiangsu and Zhejiang open in succession, will they bring changes to the weak polyester raw material market?

Polyester filament: did not fall? Because no one bought it!

If we use a word to describe the present polyester filament, that is, "price without market".

Affected by the epidemic, the resumption time of textile enterprises is generally postponed. For weaving enterprises, of course, the capacity is affected. But in 2019, under the precondition of regular overlay of grey cloth and a large amount of stock being not digested, delayed construction would cause some losses, but it is not a totally unacceptable thing.

But for polyester enterprises, the situation is much worse. As of February 13th, the POY stock of polyester filament has risen to about 24 days, FDY stock has risen to 26 days, and DTY stock has risen to about 30 days.

Compared with weaving enterprises, high storage to polyester factories brings pure high pressure.

Although the price of polyester filament has not fluctuated in recent years, it is also because almost no enterprise buys raw materials at this time. It is foreseeable that when the weaving enterprises are resuming work and the polyester is gradually starting to sell, the price of polyester will further decline under the pressure of high inventory.

Weaving is slow and demand for raw materials is weakening.

In addition, the recent resumption of weaving Market is not optimistic.

The textile industry is a labor-intensive industry. The demand for workers is very high. However, because the epidemic has affected the traffic, a large number of migrant workers are unable to get to the labor force in the Yangtze River Delta from time to time.

Judging from the current situation, the current operating rate of Changshu Taicang area is about 1-2%, and the Wujiang region can recover 3-4 of its capacity by the end of this month. The Haining area is slightly better, but the production capacity will be restored to 6-7 at the end of the month.

Capacity recovery is slow and demand for raw materials is low. At the end of last year, China's silk net had conducted a survey of the number of hoarding goods at the end of the weaving business. The survey results showed that, because of the inaccurate prediction of the textile market in 2020, most of the weaving mills almost only prepared raw materials for 15-30 days, and were ready to buy with them after the beginning of the year.

Less raw materials for weaving enterprises should be a good opportunity for polyester factories to go to stock. However, due to slow progress, the demand for raw materials for weaving enterprises will be further reduced, which will also cause greater inventory pressure on polyester factories.

The dyeing mill has low capacity, but the boss is afraid to answer it.

In addition to the slow recovery of weaving enterprises, the problem of slow recovery of supporting industries such as dyeing and finishing is even more serious.

In order to produce a qualified fabric, any part of the textile industry chain is indispensable. Weaving enterprises are slow to start up, and there are plenty of stock cloth that can be put on top.

But now, the recovery of the finishing plant is not optimistic.

In February 18th, the Shaoxing thermal power plant announced that it was postponed to stop steam. The dyeing factories in Wujiang only resumed part of the dyeing pretreatment work, and it would take a long time to really recover to normal conditions.

If the dyeing and finishing link is not restored, the textile people will be trapped in an embarrassing situation. It is true that because of the backlog of demand, there are many lists that can be received in the market, but if we can deliver the goods on time after receiving the order, it will be the biggest impact on the docking list at this stage.

Because of this situation, the market may have a further look at polyester raw materials.