Monthly Report On China'S Cotton Situation In January 2020 (Supply And Demand Balance Sheet)

In January, China and the United States signed the first stage economic and trade agreement. Cotton prices both rose at home and abroad. In the second half of the Spring Festival holiday, the national cotton sales progress slowed down, and all cotton processing enterprises stopped. The processing volume was lower than that of the same period last year. The cotton seed purchase price decreased slightly; the textile enterprises had some replenishment before the festival, the market turnover increased slightly, and the cotton business inventories decreased slightly.

1. The intention to reduce cotton planting is decreasing.

In February, the cotton association of China conducted the second national cotton planting area survey in 2020. The survey results showed that the average cotton planting area in China was 45 million 574 thousand and 800 mu, down 5.36% from the same period last year, and the decrease was 2.14 percentage points lower than that of the previous period. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2020 was 35 million 73 thousand mu, a decrease of 4.88% compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points compared with that of the previous period. The cotton fields in the mainland were affected by the epidemic situation, and the cotton farmers were not allowed to go out, which was unfavorable for the early spring plowing and broadcasting work. The cotton planting area was tentatively scheduled for the previous period, and the intention of the the Yellow River River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 8.12% and 5.30% respectively. Meanwhile, cotton farmers are worried that the production, transportation and supply of agricultural products will be affected, leading to price increases.

Two, seed cotton purchase price decline

In late January, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the acquisition of seed cotton has stopped, and the processing of all enterprises has been shut down. The progress of processing is slower than that of the same period last year, and the purchase price of seed cotton has declined compared with the same period last year. By the end of January 31st, the total processing volume of the country was about 5 million 129 thousand tons, down 0.80% from the same period last year, and the average purchase price of seed cotton was 5.63 yuan / kg, down 13.78% compared to the same period last year.

Three, the price of cotton inside and outside is rising.

In January, with the signing of the first stage economic and trade agreement between China and the United States, cotton prices both rose at home and abroad in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, the price of domestic new coronavirus was affected by the spread of the new coronavirus epidemic. At the end of the month, China's cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) was 13833 yuan / ton, up 464 yuan from the end of last month, and the monthly average price was 13827 yuan / ton, up 674 yuan, down 1596 yuan compared with the same period last year. The international cotton price has gone up, and the difference between inside and outside cotton prices has narrowed compared with the end of last month. The price index of China's cotton imports FCIndexM 80.09 cents per month, up 3.14 cents. The end of the month is 80.91 cents / pound, 1.44 cents higher than the end of last month, 1% yuan discount 13940 yuan / ton, higher than the domestic spot 107 yuan in the same period, and the difference between inside and outside cotton price is reduced by 248 yuan compared with the end of last month.

Four, business inventories declined slightly.

With the advent of the Spring Festival, although the cotton enterprises are closed for work and holidays, there are different levels of raw materials replenishment before the festival, and commercial inventories have dropped slightly at the end of the month. At the end of January, the total inventory of cotton business in China was about 5 million 11 thousand and 900 tons, a decrease of 3.37%, an increase of 3.37% over the same period last year. Affected by the Spring Festival, Xinjiang cotton shipments decreased, but higher than the same period last year. According to statistics, in the month, the Xinjiang professional cotton warehouse went out of Xinjiang for 363 thousand and 500 tons, a decrease of 88 thousand and 800 tons, up from 69 thousand and 200 tons in the same period last year.

Five. The decline of cotton reserves has dropped.

In January, 120 thousand tons of cotton reserves were planned, and the actual turnover was 18 thousand and 240 tons, a decrease of 18 thousand and 760 tons compared with the previous month. The turnover rate was 15.20%, which was 8.83 percentage points lower than that of last month. The average transaction price was 14075 yuan / ton, up 820 yuan / ton compared with December.

Six, textile production decline, raw material inventory reduction

In the first half of January, the first phase of Sino US economic and trade agreements signed, the market confidence was restored, the textile market sales were smoother, and the second half of the month, the market was gradually fading. In the whole month, the output of textile enterprises decreased, of which yarn production decreased by 9.6%, down 3.4% compared with the same period last year, and cloth production decreased by 10.3% compared with the same period last year, down 4.8% from the same period last year. Due to the close of the holiday, textile enterprises began to replenishment after the beginning of the month, and the volume of cotton market gradually declined, and cotton inventories fell year-on-year. As of January 31st, textile enterprises had 726 thousand and 500 tons of cotton stocks, down 6 thousand tons from the end of last month, down 102 thousand and 400 tons compared with the same period last year.