A Shares "God Reversal" Institutional Differences Increased: Some People Shouted "Do More A Shares" Some People Worry About The "Shock Market".

In March 2nd, A shares suddenly reversed.

In February, the last trading day ended with a sharp fall. In March 2nd, A shares opened up strongly. The three major indexes opened up collectively. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.15%, Shenzhen Composite Index rose 3.65%, and the gem index rose 3.08%.

The three major indexes are rising. Is A share full reversal or stage rebound? After the huge earthquake last week, institutional differences are increasing: some people believe that the bull market trend of A shares has become, can do more; there are also concerns that A shares have entered the concussion market since then.

External market pressure

It is worth noting that although the industry sector rose all the same day, but the early strong semiconductor and chips and other technology concepts, new energy vehicles and other hot plate are small rise, did not win the market or only reached the average level, but 5G in recent policy support has a good performance. And the big infrastructure industry broke out, building materials and building decoration increased by over 8%, and machinery and equipment increased nearly 5%.

Although the turnover of A shares exceeded ninth trillion yuan in a row, there were some shrinkage in March 2nd. The increase in shrinkage has made market participants entangled, and the uncertainty of the external stock market has also exacerbated this concern.

Last week, the three major U.S. stock indexes, Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S & P 500, fell 12.36%, 10.54%, 11.49%, respectively, and A shares fell into a huge earthquake. However, on the previous trading day, US stocks have begun to save themselves. Last Friday (February 28th local time), the US stock market opened, and the market index dropped nearly 4%. Later, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the Federal Reserve would use tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. Powell's speech strongly hinted that interest rates could be cut even at the FOMC meeting on 17-18 March. Since then, the US stock market has rebounded sharply. The Dow closed narrowed down to 1.39%, while NASDAQ dropped 3% from the lowest to the close. The closing price of the S & P 500 also narrowed to 0.82%.

"Since the spread of the epidemic outside China is more obvious, the return of risk assets is more intense. Considering the situation of countries and the extent of market adjustment, it is expected that panic will soon end." Wei Fengchun, chief macroeconomic strategist at the time fund, said.

Yang Delong, the Qianhai open source fund, believes that the sharp fall in overseas markets is mainly due to the spread of the epidemic in the overseas market and the fact that the stock market itself is at a high level in the ten year cycle. "The US stock market crash has only a short-term psychological impact on the trend of A shares."

Yan Shiwen, deputy director of Tian He investment research department, also holds the same view. "The main logic of driving the current rally is the expected increase in the fiscal policy caused by the outbreak and the loose expectation of monetary policy. The sharp drop in the external market will only affect the short-term trend. Instead, the market will bring down the opportunity to move on to the market. The decline of A shares last weekend is a golden pit reconstruction."

Institutional differences increase

However, after last week's shock, institutional differences have increased.

"A shares rebound, bull market trend has been formed, the market can do more A shares." In March 2nd, Yang Delong said.

Banyan investment general manager Zhai Jingyong also believes that at present, A shares already have the three major elements of the bull market: first, political stability, funds begin to pursue risky assets; two, the system design for promoting capital market is becoming more and more perfect; three, outstanding enterprises representing the future trend of development are constantly emerging. "The rise in 2019 is only a starting point, and a comprehensive bull market will take place in 2020."

For the layout of the future market, Yang Delong's proposal is: "the future traditional white horse stocks and emerging leading stocks will become the two pillar pattern of A shares, and there will be relatively good investment opportunities. Consumption, brokers and technology are the three major directions that we should continue to pay attention to."

Yan Shiwen suggested that "the recent recommendations should focus on two main lines, one is the opportunity to benefit from fiscal policy overweight, such as building materials, high-speed rail, UHV, and civil explosives," and the two is to benefit from loose investment opportunities in monetary policy, such as coloured and so on, with relatively short short-term elasticity.

But some agencies are worried that the A share market will enter the shock market.

Bo Shi Fund said that in March 2nd, A shares rose sharply, and all major indexes rose by more than 3%. On the plate, the counter cyclical plate represented by architecture leads the market. Considering that the market fever and the money making effect have not been confirmed to disappear, the rapid fall of overseas risky assets may also come to an end. The rise may be thought of as a rebound after a sharp fall last week. The weekend did not introduce a new and vigorous counter cyclical policy. Looking ahead, before the rapid rise of the superposition of last week's adjustment, the impact on the market will not end soon, followed by the market is likely to enter a period of concussion.

"Although the overseas market rate will end fast down and no longer have a significant impact on the domestic market, considering the high activity level of A shares, especially the gem, there are obvious signs of capital push. Even if there is a rebound later, the market shock triggered by last week's adjustment may still continue for some time. Meanwhile, the risk of subsequent rebound of the epidemic has not been eliminated or can be considered. The combination of anti risk level. Wei Fengchun said.

However, the confidence index of the private sector is rising and the position is rising. The latest survey results of confidence index of hedge fund managers in China show that the confidence index of A shares fund managers in March 2020 was 114.85, up 1.03% from the previous month.

From the existing positions, the current stock strategy private placement fund average position is 73.26%, compared to last month's 71.83% average position increased slightly, is still in the high level in the past six months. In view of the market situation in March, 42.75% of the fund managers were extremely optimistic or optimistic, and 65.27% of the fund managers chose to maintain their existing positions unchanged. 27.48% of the fund managers intend to increase their positions or substantially increase their positions.

The findings from private placement nets show that most private equity managers are neutral about the March A share market expectations, and most fund managers say the positions remain unchanged.

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