Is It Difficult To Recover The Epidemic?

Since February 28th, several important events in the market have touched people's hearts. 1, the epidemic is spreading all over the world. On the 2 and 28 th, global stock markets plummeted, and the market shrouded in pessimism. Zheng cotton fell sharply and fell to the limit. ICE cotton also almost stopped. 3, the difference between the inside and outside cotton price is over 800 yuan / ton, and the 2 cotton reserve has been suspended.

It's all bad news. There's a lot of rain coming. So, how do we view this crisis?

First, the root cause of the spread of the epidemic is global. In March 3rd, the latest news of the global epidemic showed that 600 new cases were added to the South Korea every day, 4812 cases were diagnosed and 29 cases died, 43 new cases were confirmed in Thailand, 43 cases were confirmed in Moscow, 24 were hospitalized, 83 were isolated. Who: over the past 24 hours, 64 out of China have identified 8774 cases and 128 deaths. WHO director general Tan Desai announced in Geneva that the global risk level of the new crown pneumonia epidemic will be raised to "very high" from the previous "high" level.

With the spread of the epidemic in the world, many countries and regions have declared a state of emergency, the global economy has been dragged down, and the pessimism of the market has also spread.

Two, the epidemic will not be difficult to recover. In China, the epidemic is under control. At present, new cases are rare except for Hubei and Wuhan. Enterprises have completed more than 90% of their work resumption, and China's economy is continuing to recover.

In the international arena, the epidemic is still at an early stage, and the future development depends on the wisdom and courage of the people of the world, especially in the mobilization of social and medical resources.

New crown pneumonia is highly disseminated and hidden, and one person infection is often isolated from many people. Therefore, it is hard to say that the epidemic will not recover on a global scale.

Three, the short term, the market or panic drop. It can be said that Zheng cotton's 28 day slump was dragged down by the global stock market; in March 2nd, zhengmian reduced the warehouse to rush high, and the daily line formed the 1/2 line.

In February 27th, ICE cotton was also diving at the same depth, and most of the contracts closed near the limit, close to the low point of last year's harvest. However, by March 2nd, the first day of March, the global stock market rose sharply, and ICE cotton rebounded sharply.

The whole market is jumping up and down in the mood of people. So, in the short term, the market will be more affected by "emotions".

Four, the long term, the internal and external market or differences are getting bigger and bigger. Recently, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices continued to exceed 800 yuan / ton, and the suspension of cotton reserves was suspended, indicating that domestic cotton prices fell far below the decline in international cotton prices.

This trend also confirms the fact that the epidemic is spreading in China and the world. Domestic industry confidence is slowly recovering, and international industry confidence has been hit by waves.

According to feedback from weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, prices of grey fabrics and fabrics have risen sharply since late February. Take Zhili city as an example, the recent price increase is 0.1-0.4 yuan / meter. The main reason for the rise is that most enterprises fail to recover their capacity, and the market supply and demand are relatively inconsistent. In addition, it is also inseparable from China's epidemic control and bright future prospects. Therefore, the recent domestic yarn and cotton market is acceptable, and it is expected that with the gradual outflow of the epidemic, China's consumption will be able to sustain itself.

On the contrary, cotton and outer yarns are mostly caused by the reduction of port workers and the suspension of business by traders, and so on.

Therefore, it is predicted that with the spread and aggravation of the epidemic in the world, the differentiation of two domestic and international markets will become more and more serious, and the internal and external spreads will also intensify.

To sum up, these events are whether the mountain rain is coming or the darkness before dawn is dialectical. It may be a rainy day for the international market.