1-2, The Professional Market Downturn Sharply, Try Online Sales To Ease The Impact Of The Epidemic.

The monitoring results of the circulation of China Textile Federation show that in 2020 1-2, the national textile and apparel professional market managers' prosperity index was 16.13, down 33.82 percentage points from 49.95 in December, and the professional market business climate index was 36.40, 14.06 percentage points lower than that of December.

First, management boom and business downturn.

Data show that 1-2 months, the textile and garment professional market managers and business climate index has a significant decline.

1, the manager's prosperity index has dropped by 33.82 percentage points.

Chart 1 list of managers' indices

Data source: circulation branch database

From the manager's prosperity index, the 1-2 month managers' prosperity index is 16.13, which is 33.82 percentage points lower than that of 49.95 in December, and the operating environment index is 17.74, which is 33.55 percentage points lower than that of December.

The total operating index of the sub index is 3.23, which is 46.12 percentage points lower than that of 49.35 in December; the logistics delivery volume index is 1.61, which is 48.39 percentage points lower than that of December; the passenger flow index is 1.61, which is 49.04 percentage points lower than that of 50.65 in December; the opening rate index is 1.61, which is reduced by 1.61 percentage points over that of December; the rental index is 1.61, which is down by 100% compared with that in December. The electricity supplier index is 59.68, up 8.71 percentage points from 50.97 in December.

2, the business climate index has dropped by 14.06 percentage points.

Chart 2 list of merchant indices

Data source: circulation branch database

From the business climate index, the business climate index of the total index is 36.40, down 14.06 percentage points from 50.46 in December, and the operating environment index is 36.81, down 14.11 percentage points from 50.92 in December.

In the sub index, the sales volume index was 14.93, down 36.91 percentage points from 51.84 in December; the average selling price index was 27.08, which was 23.35 percentage points lower than that of December; the profit index was 17.01, which was 34.62 percentage points lower than that of December; the composite cost index was 59.72, an increase of 59.72 percentage points over that of December; the stock index was 59.72, which was higher than that of December. Electricity sales index was 45.83, down 4.38 percentage points from 50.21 in December.

Two. Data analysis

1. Affected by Spring Festival holidays and epidemic situation, market indices have declined sharply.

In the 1-2 month, the proportion of total market share decreased by 93.55%, up 74.20 percentage points from 19.35% in December, and the proportion of logistics delivery decreased by 96.77%, up 77.42 percentage points from 19.35% in December, and the proportion of customers choosing to reduce traffic volume was 96.77%, an increase of 83.87 percentage points over 12.90% in December. In 1-2 months, the textile and garment market across the country was postponed by the Spring Festival holiday and the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The total business volume, logistics and delivery volume and passenger volume of the market had dropped sharply, and the professional market operation basically stopped.

2, the professional market tries to mitigate the impact of the epidemic through online sales.

In 1-2 months, the proportion of the increase in the proportion of electricity suppliers in the market was 35.48%, an increase of 19.35 percentage points from 16.13% in December, and the proportion of e-commerce sales increased by 18.06%, up 10.97 percentage points from 7.09% in December. In the absence of normal business, the proportion of e-commerce sales in textile and garment markets and businesses increased. The manager electricity supplier sales index was 59.68, an increase of 8.71 percentage points from 50.97 in December. It is the sole index of over 50 of all managers' indices. In the past two months, the business shock of the new crown pneumonia epidemic will bring more attention to the exploration of online sales mode, increase investment and accelerate the transformation of online and offline integration.

3, merchant cost index and stock index increase.

The composite cost index is 59.72, up 11.35 percentage points from 48.37 in December, and the stock index is 53.82, up 3.54 percentage points from 50.28 in December. In the 1-2 month, merchants who could not carry out day-to-day operations at the market stalls mostly chose to sell some products through online channels, and the inventory pressure eased slightly. At the same time, they also saved expenses in labor, publicity, miscellaneous expenses and outgoing, and the cost pressure was relatively small.

4, business climate overall higher than management boom

In 1-2 months, the business climate index was 36.40, the manager's prosperity index was 16.13, the business environment index was 36.81, and the manager's operating environment index was 17.74. In the case of professional market stagnation, merchants still sell certain commodities through online sales channels, and the prosperity index and sub index are slightly higher than the managers' prosperity index. It can be seen that under the special circumstances of the industry, the ability to resist risks and flexibility of businesses has been slightly improved, and their dependence on the professional market has declined.

Three. Prediction index

Data show that managers, the next management boom index is 19.35, down 31.30 percentage points from 50.65 in December; the next operating environment index is 17.74, down 50.65 percentage points from December's 32.91 percentage points. In terms of business, the next business climate index is 39.58, down 11.41 percentage points from 50.99 in December, and the next operating environment index is 37.85, down 12.86 percentage points from 50.71 in December. The four forecast indices showed a big decline. It is obvious that the management environment of the next stage is uncertain. Managers and businessmen are pessimistic about the management next month. The impact of the new crown pneumonia on the market and business operators will continue for some time.

Enclosure:

1, monitoring methods

"Textile and clothing professional market prosperity index" consists of two parts: "manager index" and "merchant index". Sampling method was adopted to select clothing and fabrics, home textiles and small commodities in different markets.

2. Monitoring samples

The manager's prosperity sample is made up of 32 textile and garment specialized markets, such as Guangzhou Baima clothing market, Beijing Tianya women's wear building, Jiangsu's perichi Bridge home textile market, Shanghai new seven Pu clothing market and Liaoning Xi Liu clothing market. The business life samples are composed of 150 businessmen, such as Tao Tao dress, Muzi hut, Ruili Han Shi, and Chi Di dress.

3. Monitoring cycle

The monitoring cycle is monthly, monthly and monthly.

4. Index structure

In the "textile and clothing professional market prosperity index", the "manager index" is composed of four index indexes: the current manager's prosperity index, the next manager's prosperity index, the current business environment index and the next business environment index. "The current manager's prosperity index" consists of the total operating index, the logistics delivery index, the passenger flow index, the opening rate index, the rental index, and the electricity supplier. The sales index consists of six two level indices.

The "merchant index" is composed of four first level indices, namely, the current business climate index, the next business climate index, the current business environment index and the next business environment index. The "business climate index" is composed of six index two indices, namely, sales volume index, average price index, profit index, comprehensive cost index, inventory index and electricity supplier sales index.

5, index analysis

The positive index includes manager's total operating index, logistics delivery index, passenger flow index, door opening rate index, rental index, electricity supplier sales ratio index and merchant sales index, average price index, profit index, electricity supplier sales ratio index. The positive index is more than 50, which indicates that the business condition is optimistic, the bigger the value is, the more optimistic the positive index is less than 50, which indicates that the business condition is not optimistic; the smaller the value, the more pessimistic it is.

The reverse index includes the cost index and inventory index. The cost index is more than 50, which indicates that the cost pressure of merchants decreases, the greater the cost, the lower the cost pressure. The cost index is lower than 50, which indicates that the cost pressure of business increases, the smaller the cost, the greater the cost pressure. An inventory index of more than 50 indicates that the inventory pressure decreases, the larger the inventory pressure is, the lower the inventory index is, which means that the inventory pressure increases, the smaller the inventory pressure, the greater the inventory pressure.