Polyester Raw Material Prices Fell Sharply To Inflection Point? Polyester Filament Market Is Still Difficult To Turn Around.

After the outbreak of the epidemic, PTA and other polyester raw materials are making profits to downstream polyester. Since last week, polyester producers have begun to reduce prices slightly, but although the downstream and terminal factories have resumed their work, the overall load increases are relatively slow.

On the 3 day, the market ushered in a wave of big reversal. Influenced by the sharp rise in crude oil, the production and sales of polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were greatly improved. The average production and sales of the mainstream factories were 80%-150%, and some of the better factories were able to produce and sell 200-300%.

Last week, the new crown outbreak broke out in the world, resulting in a substantial drop in the polyester raw material spot and futures market, and the cost side lacks support. Recently, the market is running smoothly. It seems that there are signs of bottoming. The pessimism brought by the new crown has weakened.

This contradiction has been basically digested, and does that mean that the market will usher in a stage of rebound?

The main factor of the recent high level of repression: the pressure on stock of polyester products.

At present, the downstream reemployment time is relatively late, the pressure of supply and demand of polyester factories is large. At present, the stock pressure of polyester products is large. According to the data, the overall stock of the polyester market is concentrated in 32-42 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are stored for 26-32 days, and FDY stocks are close to 27-33 days, while DTY stocks are about 33-42 days.

If the actual inventory is considered, some factories will be more than a week or more. It is learnt that the terminal order is less than last year, and there is more material inventory at this time, there is no obvious intention to continue to make up the stock. This will gradually negative feedback to direct demand. At present, it is still hard to say optimistic. The contradiction between supply and demand is temporarily difficult to digest, which is also a major factor in the recent suppression of the rebound.

We believe that with the gradual improvement of the following epidemic situation, market sentiment will gradually return to calm. However, at present, the resumption of the terminal weaving enterprises has been rapidly resumed, but the market orders have greater uncertainty, and the procurement is still cautious, so the short-term market is still repeated.

Risk factors shifted from domestic to overseas, and trade orders became particularly critical.

With the gradual control of the domestic epidemic, the risk factors have shifted from China to foreign countries, and the impact of the market on foreign trade has become more and more important. Then, what is the impact of the new crown epidemic on textile foreign trade?

In fact, some enterprises in the textile industry are faced with the problem of business difficulties. It is hard to usher in the national tide of resumption of work, the global outbreak of new crown pneumonia, cloth boss on the way to meet again bumpy, especially foreign trade enterprises. At present, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran and other countries are most serious.

These areas and ours are the main places of import and export of textile trade. It is understood that the recent cancellation of orders due to the epidemic is really a lot, especially foreign trade enterprises. The head of a foreign trade enterprise complained: "recently, the situation of customer cancelling orders has been encountered, which has a great impact on our company. And most customers are on the sidelines.

At the same time, taking shipping oil demand representing the terminal demand of shipping as an example, transport demand in the coastal shipping market has dropped to a low level due to public health emergencies. In February, the BDI index was high, and the Baltic dry freight index BDI averages 457 points, down 258 points or 36.08%.

This month, the BDI index fell to a low level and then rebounded slowly, and all major ship rates declined, especially the Cape ship index fell to the negative value for the first time. The international shipping market is very low. Under the light freight transport, the overall sales volume of ship oil has dropped significantly, and the market has changed from a shortage of supply to a relaxed state. The industry has seen a clear market outlook, and the market price still has a downside risk.

Although polyester factory price promotions drive polyester production and sales to pick up, boost market mentality. In the near future, the downstream weaving Market is also focusing on the resumption of work. The trading situation is expected to rebound slightly.

But in the later stage, overseas public health incidents continue to ferment, crude oil storage continues to decline, and PTA, ethylene glycol polyester and terminal weaving load increase is relatively slow, next week or will be weak shock, supply side, in order to control the finished product inventory, polyester filament factory will slow down its load speed, but there is no substantial improvement in domestic demand at this time, weaving. The factory's new single transaction is limited, while foreign trade, public health events make the late foreign trade demand uncertain, and demand side has no obvious positive. Therefore, it is expected that the later polyester filament factory will still take preferential delivery and reduce inventory policy.