The Impact Of The International Epidemic Is Beyond Expectations, Affecting Our Export Orders For Spinning Garments.

Report summary

Rewinding of clothing consumption during and after the SARS epidemic in 2003

1) epidemic period: the SARS epidemic mainly affects Q2 for 03 years, and the retail growth rate of 03Q2 clothing shoes and hats is obviously dragged down by 12.4PCT to 6.3%, and the extent of damage is larger than that of the retail sector and the optional category. 2) after the outbreak (03Q3~04Q2): there is a recovery consumption, which is smaller than the total retail sales. The recovery consumption is mainly reflected in the second half of 03 years and 04Q2, and the 14~68% of the total consumption loss accounts for 44% during the epidemic period.

On the whole, the impact of the epidemic on clothing consumption was first damaged and then rebounded, but the rebound rate failed to fully compensate for the epidemic. The combined effect was negative. The 03 annual epidemic dragged down the retail sales of clothing shoes and hats 2.3~2.6PCT. In the long term, the growth rate of 02~04 industry is still rising year after year. The epidemic will only bring short-term disturbance, and will not change the growth trend of the industry.

How can we deduce the short-term impact of the 2020 epidemic?

In 2003, the impact of the epidemic in 2020 was deduced on the basis of 2003: 1) the impact of rhythm: clothing footwear consumption will continue for some 03 years. Consumption is suppressed during the epidemic season and recovery consumption is expected after the period. However, the recovery consumption rate is not expected to make up for the consumption loss and the combined effect is negative. 2) the degree of impact is compared with that of 03 years: we need to take into account the different direction effects of multiple factors, such as the epidemic prevention and control efforts are greater. At present, economic development and consumers are more rational, leading to a lower preference for clothing.

What trend changes will the epidemic bring to the industry?

It is also expected that the current round of epidemics will not change the overall characteristics and development stages of the industry. However, it will bring about some trend and structural changes, such as promoting the development of the Ministry's molecular industry and enhancing the overall efficiency of the industry.

The key points are as follows: 1) the sports apparel category is in a high boom. After the outbreak, the demand for sports fitness is increased and its icing on the cake is added. 2) the permeability of non-woven products is low, and the demand for related protective products will increase in the short term. The industrial structure will be promoted in a long term, and the industrial textiles that are represented by non-woven fabrics are expected to develop smoothly. 3) the continuous integration of channels and lines; and 4) the marketing of live products and the fans' economy.

Investment suggestion

Short term perspective: the retail industry is expected to bear pressure during the epidemic period, focusing on the basic inflection point brought about by the related protective equipment target, the direct broadcast trademark and the restorative consumption.

Long term perspective: 1) from the perspective of children's industry, it is recommended to pay close attention to Anta sports, Lining and related international cursors, Shenzhou International, Junsheng group and related non-woven fabrics. 2) from the overall perspective of the industry, the clothing industry is relatively mature, and the outbreak will exacerbate the survival of the fittest and promote the improvement of concentration. The leading companies in the online and offline layout are perfect and actively embrace the new channel / marketing trend of the industry. They will have stronger ability to resist risks. They should pay attention to the leading clothing of the public clothing, the Semir clothing and so on, and acquire the MCN of the direct seeding electricity supplier on Saturday. As well as the higher online open run shares, Antarctic electricity providers and so on.

Risk warning

Terminal retail is weak; domestic epidemic situation is over expected, affecting the sales and production of enterprises; the international epidemic situation has an impact on China's textile export orders.

Release date: 2020-03-08