Interpretation Of CPI And PPI Data In February 2020

Original title: CPI continued to rise in February 2020, but the gains have dropped, PPI has stabilized slightly.

Zhao Maohong, director of the National Bureau of statistics, interpretation of CPI and PPI data in February 2020

In February, the sudden outbreak of new crown pneumonia had a more complicated impact on the price trend. However, with the implementation of a series of policy measures such as the resumption of production and the stable price of the Central Committee and the State Council, the price operation was generally stable, showing a trend of structural change with rising and falling. CPI continued to rise but fell somewhat. Food prices rose more and PPI remained stable. There is a decrease.

First, prices continue to rise in the consumer sector.

CPI is still at a high level and its growth has dropped. In February, the national CPI rose 0.8%, or 0.6 percentage points from last month, up 5.2%, or 0.2 percentage points. It is estimated that in the 5.2% year-on-year increase in February, the impact of the price change last year was about 2.9 percentage points, and the impact of the new price increase is about 2.3 percentage points this year. The new price increases account for a relatively high 40%. From 1 to February, CPI increased by 5.3% over the same period last year, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over the same period last year.

Food prices rose more. In February, the price of foodstuffs increased by 4.3%, or 0.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which affected the increase of CPI by about 0.98 percentage points, up 21.9% from the same period, or 1.3 percentage points, which affected CPI's rise by about 4.45 percentage points. Fresh food prices continue to be high in food. The price of potato increased by 16%, or 8.3 percentage points, and the price of pork rose 9.3%, or 0.8 percentage points, while the prices of fresh vegetables, fresh fruits and aquatic products rose by 9.5%, 4.8% and 3% respectively, or 5.8, 0.7 and 1.5 percentage points respectively. The main reason for the rise in food prices is mainly from the supply side, mainly because of the implementation of traffic and transportation control measures in various parts of the country, and the poor logistics in some areas. The shortage of manpower has caused the difficulty of material distribution and the cost has increased. From the perspective of demand, some residents have been hoarding buying behavior due to the influence of "home requirement" and "risk aversion" psychology. In some areas, snapping instant noodles, meat products and quick-frozen foods are easy to store food, and even spread to other foods to boost prices. In February, the supply of eggs was adequate, and the price fell by 6.9%, a 3.2 percentage point increase from last month. From 1 to February, food prices rose by 21.3% over the same period last year, or 20 percentage points over the same period last year.

The prices of non essential necessities are basically stable. In February, due to the epidemic prevention and control, some commercial and service outlets ceased operation, and the consumption demand of some non essential necessities was also suppressed. Supply and demand had all been contracted, prices were basically stable, and some items were even falling. The price of industrial consumer goods rose from 0.1% last month to 0.4%, up 0.3% from a year ago, or 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of energy decreased, the price of gasoline and diesel decreased by 5.7% and 6.2% respectively, and the price of coal and liquefied petroleum gas decreased by 1% and 0.4% respectively. The listing of spring clothes was postponing, and the price of clothing decreased by 0.3%. The price of services increased from 1% last month to 0.2%, up 0.6% from the previous year, or 0.9 percentage points. Among them, the price of medical services increased by 0.1%, while the price of air tickets, haircuts and hotel accommodation decreased by 7.8%, 2.5% and 1% respectively.

Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI ratio rose from 0.5% last month to 0.1%, an increase of 1% over the previous year, or 0.5 percentage points lower than last month.

Two, prices in the field of production are stable.

PPI declined slightly. In February, affected by seasonal and epidemic factors, some industrial enterprises stopped production and production, and their demand weakened. The national PPI ratio decreased from 0.5% last month to a decrease of 0.1%, up from 0.1% to 0.4%. It is estimated that in February, a year-on-year fall of 0.4%, the impact of price changes last year was about 0.1 percentage points, and the new price increase was about -0.5 percentage points. From 1 to February, the PPI decreased by 0.2% over the same period last year.

The price of oil related industries fluctuated greatly. In February, the international crude oil market suffered a great impact, and the price dropped sharply, which affected the price of domestic oil and related industries. Among them, the price of oil and natural gas extraction industry increased from 4.3% last month to 11%, and the price of oil, coal and other fuel processing industry increased from 1.8% to 4.4%. Downstream chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing, rubber and plastic products manufacturing industry prices dropped to varying degrees. From the year-on-year perspective, the prices of these industries have also declined. The drop is between 0.4% and 10.7%. The total impact on PPI has dropped by about 0.44 percentage points, which is the main reason for PPI's decline from the same period last year.

Prices of coal, steel and non-ferrous metals have steadily decreased. In February, the supply and demand of coal basically balanced, and the price ratio decreased from 0.6% last month to flat. By the increase of steel stocks, the price of ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry decreased by 1.4%, the decline was 0.8 percentage points higher than that of last month. Influenced by the continuous decline of international copper prices, copper smelting refining price dropped by 3.6%, pulling the price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry up 0.6% from last month. For a decrease of 1.5%.

The price of pharmaceutical manufacturing rose slightly. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the medical protection material production enterprises actively resumed work and resumed production to ensure supply. However, the price of pharmaceutical manufacturing increased by 0.3% in February, due to the increase of raw material prices and the increase of logistics costs. Among them, the price of disinfection products increased by 14.8%, and the price of hygienic materials increased by 1.5%.