Lint Price Trend In Early March: Slight Rise And Heavy Fall

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According to the business statistics, the average price of the domestic lint spot market was 12731 yuan / ton as of March 11th, down 2.89% from the beginning of the year, down 18.20% from the same month. Adjustment of domestic and foreign cotton price difference, in March 2nd, the average price of domestic lint market fell 1.37%, followed by the rise in cotton rose 0.75%, and entered a stable period. In March 9th, the US stock fell sharply, the crude oil limit led the Zheng cotton to explore, the domestic spot two day accumulative total fell 3.01%. In the first half of March, domestic cotton prices showed a small increase or a big decline. As of March 11th, domestic stock fell by 2.89% compared with the beginning of the month.

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　　 Self regulation of cotton market in China

In March 1st, China Cotton Reserve Management Limited announced that the purchase and storage work was suspended because of the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices, which had exceeded 800 yuan / ton for three consecutive working days. The cotton price is high and low, and the competitiveness of domestic cotton decreases. At the same time, the production cost of downstream textiles is also increased, which is not conducive to the ecological development of the domestic industrial chain. On March 2nd (Monday), the average price of domestic lint fell by 180 yuan per ton, or 1.37%. ICE cotton has a substantial rebound, after two days of adjustment, in March 3rd, domestic and foreign cotton prices reduced to 614 yuan / ton, storage and storage work can be restarted within a short time.

　　 Supply exceeds demand and market confidence is insufficient.

The market is worried about global economic growth due to the recent increase in foreign cases over China. On the 21-27 day of February 2020, the net signing volume of the US cotton in the 2019/20 year was 89 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 84% over the previous week, an increase of 40% over the previous four weeks, reaching a new high this year. In contrast, global cotton stocks are expected to increase. In 2019/20, the world's cotton production and ending inventory were up, and consumption was down by 800 thousand packages, of which China reduced 1 million packages; global output increased by about 250 thousand packs; the global end of the month inventory ratio increased by 1 million 300 thousand packs, an increase of 3 million 200 thousand packages compared to the same period last year. Under the background of less optimistic trade, cotton prices are rising hard.

　　 1-2 domestic textile and garment export reduction

Textile and garment exports dropped sharply after the Spring Festival holidays and the resumption of postponement. According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, the export volume of textiles and clothing in China in 2020 1-2 was 29 billion 835 million US dollars, down 20% from the same period last year. Among them, exports of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and articles) amounted to US $13 billion 773 million, down 19.9% compared to the same period last year. Exports of garments (including garments and accessories) were US $16 billion 62 million, down 20% from the same period last year.

　　 The price of foreign yarn has dropped, and domestic wait-and-see remains unchanged.

In early March, cotton yarn traders said that India, Pakistan, Vietnam and other producing cotton yarn external newspaper continued to decline. In Shandong, the price of yarn is mainly immovable and the discount is subsidiary. Although cotton prices have shown a downward trend since the resumption of work, cotton prices in January were warmer, resulting in high cost of cotton stocks in textile enterprises, declining market consumption, weak textile production and low production costs. Compared with previous years, the operating rate has been reduced, cotton yarn stocks have been reduced, and quotations have been stabilized.

Business analysts believe that the market will not be able to turn a big turnaround without a clear and positive stimulus. Domestic purchasing and storage has a certain supporting role in cotton prices, relative business production is more cautious, market consumption is tightened, and cotton prices are expected to be low.