The Momentum Of Resuming Work And Resuming Production Continues The Overall Control Of The Impact Of The Epidemic On China'S Economy.

Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the main economic indicators of China's economic growth slowed down in the first two months, but the impact of the epidemic on China's economy is generally controllable in the short term. At present, the situation of epidemic prevention and control has gradually improved, and the trend of the long-term economic fundamentals and internal upward trend has not changed. With the central government's efforts to increase the intensity of macroeconomic policy, the momentum of resumption of production and resumption of production will continue. The recovery of the economy in the two quarter or the second half of this year may be accelerated. The employment situation in the second half of this year is expected to improve.

In March 16th, the National Bureau of statistics released the main indicators of national economic performance in the first two months of this year. Affected by the outbreak of new crown pneumonia, China's industrial production declined in the first two months, the production of services declined, market sales decreased and fixed assets investment decreased.

At a press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council, Mao Shengyong, spokesman of the State Statistical Bureau, said that under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee, all regions and departments should co-ordinate the work of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, accelerate the resumption of work and production, gradually restore the order of production and life, and achieve orderly operation of the national economy, so that the basic livelihood of the people can be effectively protected.

The epidemic of new crown pneumonia has a great impact on the operation of the national economy, but the impact of the epidemic is short-term, external and controllable. At present, the spread of the spread of the epidemic has been basically curbed, and the situation of prevention and control has gradually improved. The trend of the long-term economic fundamentals and internal upward trend has not changed. " Mao Shengyong said.

The national economy has withstood the impact of the epidemic.

Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the growth rate of China's main economic indicators slowed down in the first two months. Among them, the added value of scale industries increased by 13.5% compared with the same period last year, and the production index of the service industry dropped by 13% compared with the same period last year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 20.5% compared with the same period last year. Fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) decreased by 24.5% compared with the same period last year.

"The impact of the epidemic on China's economy is generally controllable in the short term, and the national economy has withstood the impact of the epidemic in the first two months." Mao Shengyong analysis said, first of all, China's production demand volume is considerable, the advantages of the super large scale economy have not changed. In 2019, the total economic volume of our country was close to 100 trillion yuan, and the per capita GDP was more than 10 thousand US dollars. The output of major industrial products continued to be the number one for many years, providing strong material guarantee for dealing with emergencies. In the first two months, the total output value of industrial products above designated size was 11 trillion and 500 billion yuan, the total retail sales of social consumer goods exceeded 5 trillion and 200 billion yuan, and the investment in fixed assets was over 3 trillion and 300 billion yuan, with a considerable scale.

Secondly, the basic industries and epidemic prevention materials are guaranteed effectively, and the strong economic development tenacity has not changed. The production of important industries related to the national economy and people's livelihood has not been interrupted, and some industries have maintained a good growth. In the first two months, the output of ethylene increased by 5.6% over the same period, and the output of crude steel and pig iron increased by 3.1%. The output of 10 kinds of nonferrous metals increased by 2.2%. During the epidemic prevention and control period, the demand for respirators, protective clothing and alcohol in the whole society increased sharply. After orderly regulation, the output of these products has expanded, and the capacity of related products has been greatly improved in a short time. " Mao Shengyong said.

Thirdly, the supply of daily necessities and utilities is adequate. The balance between supply and demand has not changed. During the epidemic prevention and control period, the basic livelihood of the 1 billion 400 million people has been effectively protected, and consumer goods have maintained a relatively good overall growth. Material supply and basic living goods protection are relatively strong, prices are generally stable, and the overall social and economic situation is stable.

Fourth, the development of the Internet economy is good, and the rapid growth of new kinetic energy has not changed. The Internet has played a good supporting role in epidemic prevention and control, material distribution, online education, remote inquiry and cultural entertainment consumption. And Internet related industries maintained a relatively fast growth.

In addition, the macroeconomic regulation and control policy is strong and promising, and the confidence in achieving the annual goal has not changed. The central government has issued a series of policies and measures to support the prevention and control of epidemic situation and support the promotion of resumption of work, including supporting enterprises to tide over difficulties and developing production.

Employment is expected to improve in the second half of this year.

Employment is the biggest livelihood of the people, connecting thousands of households. In the first two months, there were 1 million 80 thousand new jobs in cities and towns throughout the country. Among them, the unemployment rate of urban survey in February was 6.2%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over January, and the unemployment rate in 31 big cities and towns was 5.7%.

"The increase in unemployment rate in urban survey in February was mainly due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control, the decrease in employment demand and the decline in employment." Mao Shengyong said.

Despite the overall increase in urban survey unemployment rate in February, the employment situation of key groups is generally relatively stable. For example, the unemployment rate of the main age group between 25 and 59 is 5.6%, 0.6 percentage points lower than that of the overall population, and the unemployment rate of college aged 20 to 24 years is 0.4 percentage points lower than that of last month.

The CPC Central Committee and the State Council always attach great importance to the employment problem, and stable employment ranks first in the "six stability" policy. This year, the employment situation in China is more severe. Some enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, have been affected by the epidemic. The total number of new graduates has reached 8 million 740 thousand, which has brought great pressure to the job market.

"At present, the domestic epidemic prevention and control effectiveness is good, but the task of external epidemic prevention is very arduous. In particular, some new changes in the world economy have led to turbulence in the financial markets and massive fluctuations in commodity prices, and there may be some slowdown in world economic and trade growth. Under such circumstances, employment pressure is relatively large. Mao Shengyong said.

Mao Shengyong also said that China's economic development has strong resilience. With the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation better, the momentum of resumption of business and resumption of production continues. The two quarter or the second half of the year will probably accelerate the recovery process. By then, the production and living order of the whole society will continue to recover, and the demand for employment will continue to increase.

Mao Shengyong said that the central government will intensify the hedging of macro policies and strive to stabilize enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises with large demand for labor. Stabilizing enterprises and stabilizing economic operation will stabilize employment. Moreover, the employment priority policy will further intensify its efforts, such as increasing employment training for employment personnel, transfer workers or migrant workers, making good use of employment funds, and increasing assistance to key groups, including college students and migrant workers, so as to further promote flexible employment. Therefore, the employment situation is expected to improve in the second half of this year, and the unemployment rate will also decrease.

Efforts to achieve annual development goals and tasks

In the past two months, China's economic operation has been affected, but in general it has been affected by the epidemic. Especially in the second half of February, enterprises resumed their work and resumed production.

"Throughout January, especially before January 23rd, the economy was running better. During the epidemic prevention and control, the economy was affected. Since the middle and late February, the central government has made overall efforts to promote epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and this effect has gradually weakened. Mao Shengyong said.

The National Bureau of statistics has carried out 3 rapid surveys from February 12th to February 29th. As of February 29th, the operating rate of Enterprises above Designated Size, including industrial and construction industries, increased significantly. Recent data released by relevant departments also show that except Hubei, industrial enterprises above Designated Size have returned to over 95%.

"The return of enterprises is generally good, and the economic data in March will be significantly better than the first two months." Mao Shengyong analysis said that with the continuous emergence of domestic epidemic prevention and control effect, more importantly, the resumption of work and production accelerated. The normal production and life order has been restored. The impact of the epidemic on the domestic economy will gradually weaken in the two quarter, and some economic activities in the early stage will also be gradually released. Therefore, the two quarter economic situation will rise significantly in the first quarter. In the second half of this year, with the emergence of a series of more intensive hedging policies, the economy will become more robust.

It is worth noting that external epidemics are continuing to spread and external uncertainties increase. "We must continue to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control work, actively consolidate results, actively and orderly promote the whole industry chain coordination, resumption of production, promote the normalization of production and life order, strengthen international cooperation in epidemic prevention and control, better play the role of a responsible big country, and help some countries better control the epidemic situation." Mao Shengyong said: now the global economy is facing some difficulties. We should break away, cancel some unreasonable trade rules and barriers, and better enable the world economy to cope with the epidemic situation, so as to better bring the world economy and trade back to the track of normal development.

"If epidemic prevention and control are well done, there will be a good foundation for economic growth throughout the year. In particular, the policy effect will continue to emerge in the second half of the year after more aggressive hedging policies are introduced. Therefore, I have confidence in the steady and healthy operation of the economy throughout the year. Mao Shengyong suggested that we should further intensify our macroeconomic policies to drive momentum, hedge the impact of the epidemic and external risks, and promote stable and healthy operation of the economy. We must resolutely win the three major battle and strive to accomplish the annual development goals and tasks.