Disturbance Of Overseas Epidemic: Technology Stocks: Consumer Electronics And "Domestic Alternative" Or Current Watershed

The spread of the overseas epidemic has made the technology stock market that had been warmer.

In March 17th, in the case of the three big index decline, benefiting from the two phase investment of the national big fund, the technology stock market is still strong, and photoresist, semiconductor materials and index are among the top gainers. But looking at the semiconductor sector, there has been a sharp differentiation in the interior.

Since the Spring Festival, technology boards like semiconductors, electronic components and communication equipment have been surging forward. After reaching the high point at the end of February, they began to callback sharply, and recently entered the shock adjustment.

This is not the original script. According to the plan of the year, 2020 will be the year when 5G broke out, and the technology sector will usher in spring. This is from the 2019 annual report released by relevant companies, which also seems to confirm this trend.

But the epidemic has changed everything. Especially after the domestic epidemic has improved, the increase of overseas epidemic has made the uncertainty increase sharply, and overseas business accounts for relatively large consumer electronics.

"From the current public data, the demand for mobile phone sales dropped more in the first two months of this year, but wearable devices also maintained a relatively fast growth rate. The epidemic will definitely affect the first quarter results, which is also expected. However, the development of overseas epidemic is too fast, which will have much impact on the company's future performance. It is difficult for us to judge that we still need to observe. " In March 17th, an apple industry chain listed company's Securities Department told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report.

Performance of leading stocks

In last year's investment logic of institutional analysis technology stocks, "performance is king" is always a main line.

Of the 176 listed companies in the electronics industry, a total of 119 companies reported a growth in net profit last year. The top three companies are Jinyi technology, intelligent power and Yuan Wang Valley, with net profit growth reaching 3971.65%, 1795.27% and 592.53% respectively. The other seven are the intelligent manufacturing, Jingyan technology, Beijing Jun Zheng, LAN Si technology, Lehman optoelectronics, Zhuo Shengwei and Ou Feiguang.

It is not hard to find that in the top ten list of net profit growth, many companies are the stars of the A share market in 2019. From this perspective, the achievement of technology stocks meets market expectations.

Among them, Jinyi technology is considered a leading ETC by the market, and its share price doubled last year. For the reasons for the substantial increase in performance, the company said that during the reporting period, the state vigorously promoted the abolition of the national expressway toll toll station project construction, and promoted the popularization and application of ETC electronic tags. The market demand of ETC related equipment such as roadside antennas and electronic tags increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the sales of ETC related products increased significantly.

The transcript of "net profit of 880 million yuan and nearly 40 times the growth rate" delivered by Jinyi technology is undoubtedly the most powerful support for doubling the share price.

In addition, the reporter noted that in the top ten list, the consumer electronics industry can be seen as the biggest winner. Such as apple, HUAWEI, Ou Feiguang, Zhuo Sheng Wei, apple, HUAWEI industrial chain company are also hot stocks in the A share market, and the mobile phone industry chain is hot.

Blue Technology said that in 2019, the industry entered a new stage of development. The company met the needs of the major consumer brands in the global consumer electronics industry for smart phones, smart wearable devices, tablet computers, notebook computers, integrated computers and other products. At the same time, high-end smart cars, smart home appliances and other business sectors have achieved high-speed and high quality growth, and successfully completed the annual breakout growth target.

Zhuo Sheng Wei was one of the most popular HUAWEI concept stocks last year. Last year, it achieved 1 billion 520 million yuan in revenue, an increase of 170.45% over the same period last year, achieving a net profit of 500 million yuan, an increase of 207.47% over the same period last year. The company said that, on the one hand, it has achieved certain results in expanding new customers; on the other hand, it has been insisting on independent research and innovation, and the new products launched on the client scale have been gradually increased, and the sales volume and profitability of the company have increased considerably.

This trend is likely to continue this year. Taking the quarterly report of HUAWEI and apple industry chain company as an example, the first quarter is expected to achieve net profit of about 73 million 527 thousand yuan -8650.24 yuan, the change range is 70%-100%, mainly due to the company's sales promotion to major international customers and new products.

Consumer electronics and "domestic alternative" or differentiation

But the epidemic has shifted the trend. In February, the technology companies affected by the domestic outbreaks and shutdowns were again hit by overseas epidemic.

"In the first two months of this year, sales and sales in the first quarter were slightly affected by downtime and logistics problems, but had little effect on the annual performance estimates. This information has been released to investors through the interactive platform. However, the development of overseas epidemic is too fast and has much impact on the company's performance. It is difficult for us to judge and still need to observe. The securities company of the listed company told reporters.

The impact of the epidemic is first reflected in the stock price. Semiconductor Index reached a high point in February 25th, down the road, as of March 17th, the cumulative callback of about 32%. Even in the top ten, the technology stocks supported by performance, the stock price has declined since the Spring Festival. From February 3rd to February 17th, the cumulative decline was 26%, averaging 30% more than the highest price in the region.

In March 17th, an electronic industry analyst said in an interview: "market sentiment is bound to be affected, and the future market mainly depends on the development of overseas epidemic. In the medium term, the consumer electronics industry, which participates in the global industry chain and sales, is also a process of "killing" valuation. With the evolution of the epidemic, wait until 6 and July to see whether the actual sales and actual sales are up to expectations.

The impact of the epidemic on the consumer electronics overseas market is not alarmist. A research report of Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that "in 2018, A share technology stocks earned about 670 billion yuan overseas business, accounting for 22% of business revenue. Considering that overseas business income is not mandatory disclosure of annual reports, for example, the industry Fu Lian revenue is not included in the statistics, and some customers are domestic companies, but their customers' products are supplied overseas. Therefore, A share technology stocks are more dependent on overseas markets than they appear on the surface.

Twenty-first Century economic news reporter noted that recently, many investors are concerned about the impact of overseas epidemic on the interactive platform. An investor asked Shennan electric circuit: "now that the overseas epidemic is becoming more and more serious, will it lead to a reduction in foreign orders?"

Shennan circuit responded, "in the first half of 2019, foreign income accounted for less than 35%. Since the outbreak of the outbreak, the company has paid close attention to the development of the epidemic situation at home and abroad, and has adopted an emergency strategy. As the epidemic is not yet over, the company will continue to focus on future changes and risk prevention. "

However, although the market has fallen, it is in danger. "For example, semiconductors with independent control, there is no fixed anchor for valuation. If we can control independently, we will replace or accelerate domestic production. Another example is the partial software in technology, the rise of online education and cloud office. This market demand is increasing. The electronic industry analyst said.

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