Massive Early Warning! The Risk Of Exporting To These Countries Has Risen Sharply.

Because panic caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic has not been effectively alleviated, the panic of the US economy has entered a recession. The three big indexes of the US stock market in New York fell again on the 18 day. On the same day, the US stock market opened sharply lower in the morning, and the S & P 500 index fell more than 7%, triggering the fusing mechanism again, and stopping for 15 minutes. This is the fourth time that the US stock market has flocked in 10 days.

On the same day, the National Bureau of statistics released the macroeconomic data for the first two months of this year. Industry, consumption and investment all hit or near the lowest level in the same period, reflecting the impact of the new crown epidemic on the economy.

The epidemic blocking war. China won the first half at a heavy cost, but we can not get the best of the second half if the overseas countries fail to win the second half. In this regard, the understanding of foreign trade people will be more profound.

At present, these countries are in a high-risk state. Please pay attention to the safety of the goods.

Italy has become the most serious country outside China. Up to 18 p.m. Paris time on March 17th, 31506 people were infected in Italy, 2503 people were dead, and 3526 confirmed cases were compared with the previous day. Italy has entered the "closed city" state since March 10th, and has closed all shops except food stores and drugstores since 12.

Although it is the third largest economy in the euro area, Italy's economy has not slowed down from the previous crisis.

The northern part of Italy, which is most affected by the epidemic, not only accounts for 1/3 of Italy's economic share and 1/4 of its population, but also the economic backbone of high-end manufacturing, fashion industry and tourism. Lombardy is even known as "one of the four engines of European economy".

The epidemic will cause heavy losses to Italy. Zhu Min, President of the National Finance Research Institute of Tsinghua University, and former vice president of IMF, believe that According to Italy's control of the epidemic situation in June, the epidemic will seriously affect the economy in the first half of 2020 and continue to impact the economic development in the third quarter. After the epidemic continued to June, without strong fiscal policy support, there may be a continuous recession in the first three quarters of 2020. Employment, household income, investment, corporate profits and inflation all glide across the board. In 2020, the economy is expected to decline by 2%.

At present, Spain has become the second most serious European country after Italy. As of March 17th, there were 11409 confirmed cases and 510 deaths in Spain. On March 14th, Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez declared a state of emergency for a period of 15 days and imposed a "no order" in Spain, which will begin at 8 a.m. on March 16th. "Prohibition order" requires residents not to go out.

Nearly half of the confirmed cases are concentrated in the capital of Madrid and Basque, an industrial center. Affected by the epidemic, some electrical installations, auto parts and other factories in Basque area have been declared closed. In fact, as early as the end of 2, due to the lack of supporting parts and equipment, some factories in the area were unable to start. At present, the closure of these factories has disrupted the industrial chain of European industry.

It is worth noting that Europe has become the epicenter of the epidemic. The cumulative number of confirmed cases is over 1000 countries including Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Norway and Holland. Many countries declared a state of emergency, and Italy, Holland, France and Spain adopted national blockade measures. Unless necessary, residents could not leave their homes. In addition, on March 17th, EU leaders have agreed to temporarily close the EU border for 30 days. Don't think about the April European exhibition.

More than that, according to data released by the German think-tank ZEW in March 17th, The euro area March ZEW economic prosperity index was -49.5, the lowest level since December 2011, and Germany's ZEW economic index in March is -49.5, with an expected value of 8.7.

Achim Wambach, President of ZEW, said the ZEW economy is expected to decline sharply. The red warning lights have been lit up in the European economic situation. And this downward trend will continue in the second quarter.

In May 2018, the US unilaterally withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement and restarted sanctions against Iraq, and Iran's economy was gradually falling into the cold winter. The epidemic has made Iran's economy worse.

In March 15th, the number of confirmed cases of Iran's new crown pneumonia reached 13938. Meanwhile, Iran's rial's unofficial exchange rate against the US dollar also dropped to 15550:1, a 7.7% depreciation compared with the first confirmed case of new crown pneumonia in Iran in February 29th.

According to Chao Jian, a Chinese businessman who makes lighting business in Tehran, most of Iran businessmen will concentrate on purchasing in China at the end of December or early January. When goods arrive in Iran by sea, they will be able to sell them before March. "But now they have stopped because of the epidemic."

As of March 17th, there were 8320 confirmed cases and 81 deaths in South Korea. The number of newly diagnosed cases has been lower than 100 cases for 3 consecutive days. To some extent, the new crown pneumonia epidemic situation in South Korea has been controlled, and there has been a relaxation trend.

South Korea is an export-oriented economy, highly dependent on the international market. Since last year, the Korean economy has continued to slump, and the total export volume has dropped by 10.3% year-on-year. Undoubtedly, the epidemic will continue to deteriorate. Jin Chengtai, head of economic outlook for Korea Development Research Institute, predicts that if the epidemic lasts for more than 3 months, it will have a major impact on manufacturing industry. Shen Guan Hao, an economics professor at Korea University, bluntly said that the epidemic will continue to increase the risk of enterprise bankruptcy.

Affected by the continuous spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the recent exchange rate falls in the currencies of many countries. When a country's currency depreciates sharply, the cost of imports will be raised. Some importers may choose to abandon, reject, delay payment, or even pay in order to avoid losses. Therefore, foreign trade people need to pay close attention to the exchange rate fluctuations in the target export market in order to cope with possible risks.

The fall in oil prices led to the plunge in the Russian rouble exchange rate. In March 6th, the ruble exchange rate experienced a rare drop in recent years. On the next trading day (9), the ruble continued to depreciate, and the US dollar reached 1:75.04 against the ruble, which was further devalued by 9.5% compared with the 6 day.

In order to reduce the impact of sharp oil shocks on the rouble, the Russian central bank issued a notice on March 9th as part of the budget requirements. Russia has decided not to buy foreign exchange in the domestic market within 30 days (initially it should have purchased about 3 billion U.S. dollars of foreign exchange in March). From 9 to 12, the ruble exchange rate stopped a sharp downward trend and maintained stability in a small concussion.

Russian financial analysts believe that in the next period of time, the ruble exchange rate will be in a small range of shocks.

In March 16th, RGI fell to the lowest level since June 2017, against the US dollar, as at 5 times in the afternoon, 4.3070 to 1 yuan. Kenna grid research analyst expects Under the impact of many unfavorable factors, the exchange rate of the RG against the US dollar may continue to linger at the level of 4.30 RGC to US $1, or even lower.

In addition, the epidemic situation in Malaysia is also noteworthy. In March 17th, 120 new confirmed cases were added in Malaysia, and the number of new confirmed cases was broken up for three consecutive days. The country has issued "restrictions on activities", and public action control will be implemented from 18.

The rupee appeared in early March in India. Panic plunged into Asia's worst performing currency at one point. In March, it fell by about 3.1%, the lowest level in more than a year.

The new crown pneumonia epidemic combined with US sanctions made Iran's currency devaluation intensified. Since February, rial has been in the process of devaluation. In early February, the exchange rate was 1 US dollars to 135 thousand rial. In February 22nd, the open market of rial opened a sharp decline, reaching a low level in the past year, closing at a price of 1 US dollars for 153 thousand rial. In March 15th, Iran's rial's unofficial exchange rate against the US dollar also dropped to 15550:1, a 7.7% depreciation compared with the first confirmed case of new crown pneumonia in Iran in February 29th.

Affected by the collapse of international crude oil prices, new crown pneumonia and nationwide power rationing, South African currency Rand fell nearly 8% against the US dollar in March 9th. At one point, it was close to 17 Rand mark, which is the lowest level of Rand's exchange rate against the US dollar since February 2016.

Sarah Hunt, a South African economist, said the new crown pneumonia epidemic is far from over. The South African economy will continue to suffer serious shocks in the second quarter. It is difficult to judge the future trend and "inflection point", and the market will continue to fluctuate violently.

In March 16th, Real fell below the "5" mark for the first time against the dollar, closing at 5.0467 Real to 1 dollars, and Real losing 4.68%. This month, Real has depreciated by 12.62%. And this year, Real has accumulated depreciation of 25.76%.

In March 9th, the US dollar fell to 1 pesos against the peso Mexico exchange rate of 22 pesos. The daily decline was more than 10%, the largest decline since 2008. In the morning of March 16th, Mexico pesos fell to the lowest level in exchange rate against the US dollar and dropped by more than 4.11%. The exchange rate of Mexico pesos for the US dollar was 23.03 pesos to 1 US dollars, which also broke the bottom line of the market psychology of 23 pesos for us $1.

Besides, The currencies of Columbia, Chile and Uruguay also showed significant depreciation. 。

In view of the above countries' orders, we recommend foreign trade enterprises:

First, pay attention to the outbreak areas. Consumption demand decreases, income decreases, unemployment rate rises, enterprise closures. And so on.

Keep focus on target market. Exchange rate changes 。

3. Concern Fluctuation of RMB exchange rate 。 With the US Federal Reserve sharply cutting interest rates by 100 basis points and launching the $700 billion QE plan, the RMB exchange rate is "behind the waves", but it is surging in the dark.

4. Orders placed by buyers in severe epidemic areas must be communicated with guests before delivery. Local traffic control The situation prevents guests from taking delivery. Attention is also needed. Buyer's operation To prevent default risk.

After shipment, pay close attention to the transportation of goods and make sure that you have enough time and pay attention to the additional cost.

New customers and new orders must be more cautious. Use CIF and FOB trade terms as far as possible To ensure the safety of the loan.

When necessary Buying CITIC insurance 。 At present, many policies have been put in place to strengthen export credit insurance support and give certain premium subsidies, and local rules and regulations can be consulted by local rules and regulations.