Credit Risk Measurement Under Epidemic Situation: Exposure To Liquidity Pressure Eight Point Four Eight Trillions Of Credit Debt To Be Repaid

The epidemic continues to cause turbulence at home and abroad.

Twenty-first Century economic report combing reporters found that recently, many bonds because of the impact of the epidemic caused by the payment problem, many announcement of the per capita announcement of the impact of the epidemic and liquidity pressure.

In March 17th, Hua Changda announced that the "17 Huachang 01" will expire in March 22nd and repay the principal and interest. However, due to the outbreak of the "new crown virus" outbreak in Hubei area, the normal operation of the company is seriously affected. In order to alleviate the risk of bond payment and safeguard the interests of investors, the company intends to make a bond replacement for the principal of "17 Huachang 01" in a non cash way.

This is a case of bond replacement after the replacement of the Sander project due to the uncertainty of the "17 Sander project MTN001" due to the epidemic.

In the foregoing institutional prediction, the companies that need to be vigilant due to the impact of the epidemic are concentrated in the tourism, hotels and aviation industries with strong consumption attributes and significantly reduced traffic volume; the downstream industries are also the companies with manufacturing enterprises, demand and operating rate being dragged down by the epidemic, or the high dependence of the business mode on logistics; and the risk of post demand, price pressure, high inventory, and risk of price falls. Upstream resource industry and so on.

"Sudden economic activity caused by epidemic prevention and control measures will make the global economy face recession this year, and then cause huge credit pressure. A sharp drop in cash flow, a sharp tightening of the financing environment and a sharp drop in oil prices will impact the global credit environment, which may lead to a sharp increase in the number of defaults. S & P global ratings credit research global chief Alexandra Dimitrijevic said.

Pressure appearance

Under the pressure of the epidemic, the sensitive sectors such as tourism and related companies in Hubei are the first to bear the brunt.

"At present, systemic credit risk is relatively controllable in China, but we need to guard against individual risks in sensitive industries and heavily affected areas, and pay attention to the capital chain of issuers who maintain basic expenditures in the case of stagnation of operations." Director of fixed income of a large public fund in Beijing told the twenty-first Century business reporter.

From Sander project and Hua Changda's case, both companies have pointed out the operational pressure brought about by the project's location in Hubei.

Sander project said that due to the suspension of operation in Hubei and several affected areas, the daily operation was greatly affected, resulting in problems such as tight liquidity. Hua Changda said that the Hubei area of the company was seriously affected by the outbreak.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter combing, the current Sander project has "19 Sander project SCP001" and "17 Sander project MTN001" two bonds were affected, of which the scale of 500 million yuan "19 Sander project SCP001" will change the bond payment date from February 25, 2020 to November 20, 2020, "17 Sander project MTN001" take the bond replacement, investors agreed to replace 400 million yuan, the remaining 100 million Yuan declared a breach of contract.

For Hua Chang Da, the company itself is in the Hubei area. The company is mainly engaged in complete sets of automation production equipment for automobile and construction machinery industry. The current balance of "17 Huachang 01" is Two point three nine Billion yuan, which is also the only surviving bond of Hua Chang Da.

However, it is noteworthy that since the beginning of 2018, the credit debt default continued to erupt, which has brought financial pressure to the current liquidity predicament, and the outbreak of the new crown is undoubtedly the last straw.

For example, in the 2017, there were many disputes in front of Hua Chang Da, which led to the freezing of bank accounts. The latest performance bulletin showed that the net profit of Hua Chang Da in 2019 was a loss. Fourteen point six Billion yuan, net profit in the same period last year. Two thousand four hundred and twenty-four point two one Ten thousand yuan.

The Sander project is a typical environmental protection industry company. The main business development mode of the company is BOT and PPP. The investment is large and the repayment time is long. The return of project funds is highly dependent on the local government's financial strength and willingness to pay. The industry in 2019 has already been under the pressure of liquidity.

"Affected by the epidemic, the bond market credit differentiation trend or further highlights. For industrial enterprises, transportation, catering, tourism, film and television entertainment, physical retail, real estate industry, construction industry, agricultural and sideline products export industry or in the short term will be subject to certain shocks. We need to pay attention to the credit risk of small and medium-sized private enterprises with relatively low creditworthiness and relatively poor risk tolerance, while facing higher debt pressure. China integrity Research Institute pointed out.

Risk manometry

Data show that between February and December this year Eight point four eight Trillions of credit bonds need to be paid, and the overall solvency pressure is higher than that of the same period in 2019. From the time distribution of payment, the total amount of credit debt repayment in the first half is about Three point two five Trillion yuan, debt repayment pressure is relatively less than the second half.

"Even without the impact of the epidemic, the normalization of credit default defaults has been universally recognized, overlaying the pressure of the epidemic. We should pay more attention to credit differentiation and avoid the risk of issuers with poor qualifications." A fixed fund collector of a public fund in Southern China said.

Just as the credit differentiation problem of different companies mentioned by the agency, many companies have been affected by the epidemic. The typical "South China Airlines Group" meeting on "extremely difficult handling plan" has aroused market concern. Under the pressure of global spread of the epidemic, airlines at home and abroad are cutting back on their expenses to cope with the pressure.

In March 18th, Moodie said that the rating of Delta Airlines would be downgraded. Its estimated annual capacity of delta air lines will be reduced by about 35%, and the risk of downside scenarios facing greater challenges is very high. The severity and duration of pandemic and travel restrictions are very uncertain.

According to Moodie analysis, for China's bond market, Chinese entity retailers, travel service providers and transportation enterprises selling non essential commodities are most affected by the new coronavirus epidemic. The impact mainly comes from traffic disruption, travel ban and passenger flow reduction. In terms of credit risk caused by the epidemic, the credit risk of these industries is the highest.

In twenty-first Century, according to Wind data, the issue amount of bonds issued by the transport industry in the domestic bond market was issued in the past year. One point one one Trillion yuan, of which bonds expired within the year exceeded 400 billion yuan.

Relatively speaking, the related industries of the consumer industry have less debt issuance. According to the Ministry of industry, the food and beverage industry has issued a scale of debt in the past year. One thousand and seventeen point nine nine Billion yuan, the proportion of the issue amount only. 0.9% 。 The scale of bonds that expired during the year. Four hundred and sixty-three point five Billion yuan.

Although the epidemic has a certain impact on the operation of some enterprises, but if the epidemic situation can be controlled quickly, at the same time, under the policy background that regulators support corporate refinancing and maintain financial market stability, the impact of the epidemic on credit risk is relatively controllable. China integrity Research Institute said.

?