When Will The Textile Market Usher In "Calm And Calm" Under Internal And External Troubles?

The three major indexes of the US stock market in New York fell again on the 18 day, which is the fourth time in the US stock market in 10 days.

After the Federal Reserve "cut interest rates to zero + quantitative easing" on the stock market failed, local time on March 17th, the Federal Reserve gave away the financial crisis "killing device". The US government also announced that it would launch a new round of economic stimulus plan, which was used in the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Depression of last century to alleviate the impact of the epidemic on the US economy.

But the most direct factor that has triggered the current global economy is the continuous growth of the new crown epidemic, with more than 100 thousand confirmed cases outside China, and the epicenter of the epidemic in Europe.

An outbreak has caused global shocks.

Many countries and regions have declared "closed door":

11, the United States announced a ban on travel to Europe.

Belgium announced the closure of the city on the evening of 12 after the national security conference held in Belgium.

On the 13 day, Venezuelan President Maduro delivered a televised speech in the evening, announcing that the whole country was on alert.

14, France announced the closure of "non essential" public places.

14 Saudi Arabia announced that all international flights were grounded.

14 evening announced that Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez announced that Spain will blockade the country from 16.

On the 15 day, the government of Estonia declared a ban on entry of foreign tourists.

On the 15 day, the president of Kazakhstan declared a state of emergency throughout the country.

16, Romania entered a state of emergency this week.
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It can be seen that no matter what is home or abroad, there is no good news for textile bosses. Especially after the last week to the darker moments, the hearts of the textile people are "unable to calm down for a long time". "Recently, customers have cancelled orders with us!" A textile boss who has been exporting for more than ten years said, "it is estimated that this is just the beginning. Next, there will be cancellation or delay of orders."

At present, Saudi Arabia and Russia are still fighting for the gas market. The weakness of the crude oil market has not changed. In the short term, the market for raw materials is weakening. At present, all sectors of the textile industry are looking forward to the first "overturn" in the downstream, so that the whole industry can get better. But what is the truth?

Production and sales balance > supply exceeds demand. The market has entered the "watershed".

Recently, a lot of textile friends will ask, in the early stage, because of the low rate of operation and the low supply of market capacity, many traders were busy making orders, and the gray cloth was very diligent, which led to a "hot" situation in the market. But in the last week, the voice of the market is getting smaller and smaller. Is the market in an early turning point?

"This market has not been met for so many years. Recently, we are not as good as the early March, when we could walk 60 thousand meters per day," he said. "Now we have a lot of goods to go, and some of the specifications are already in storage." A textile boss who has done more than ten years' taffeta says.

Coincidentally, a textile boss with 8 customers from Hubei said helplessly:

"Originally wanted to follow all of you, we plan to start in late February, but if our customers haven't started yet, we will be dragged to the beginning of March. If we do not start again, the workers will be lost. It will be difficult for us to recruit. Now we have no orders, we can only produce stocks. That is, every day is produced by stock.

From the perspective of the current market fundamentals, the market is gradually shifting from production and sales balance to oversupply. Recently, the sample enterprises from China's silk net monitoring can say that more and more textile bosses say that orders have been out of date, and the execution of orders has come to an end. After a year, the new ones are not enough to follow up, and the starting rate is picking up gradually.

The boss has chosen not to start. Is he helpless or sensible?

In March, it was generally the highest season in the whole year, but this year it was different. First, because the epidemic situation was postponed, then the problem of shortage of workers began to recover slowly.

At present, many textile bosses are in such a state of mind, but the cost of equipment depreciation, rent, labor, water and electricity and so on have forced them to start work. Only when they start work can they have output value. Of course, a small number of employers choose to maintain low start-up or even fail to start.

"At present, 2 of the machines have been opened in the factory. Now the raw materials are slumping and the orders are not large. The inventory is easy to depreciate. It is very unwise to take up too much money in the current market." Keqiao textile boss Chen said.

In addition, I heard that a few textile owners who opened factories in Jiangxi chose not to start to avoid the uncomfortable market in the first half of this year.

According to the relevant people, production in the field and local distribution are many ways of survival in the Midwest. During the epidemic period, due to the obstruction of logistics, the stock that had been transported to the local warehouse had been successfully digested. Therefore, the stock of these small factories is not high, or even some of them are out of stock. That is, these bosses take the risk of the current market into consideration and choose not to start temporarily, so as to avoid the dilemma brought by this "black swan".

In any case, from the current market evolution, in the late March, raw materials will linger in a lower position for a period of time, resulting in the depreciation of the stocks in the factory, and many manufacturers with higher inventory will either maintain or even reduce their load, or compete for the shrinking share in the full price war.

The opening of the largest fabric trading market in the South will be able to inject "warm current" into the market.

In March 9th, more than a month after the announcement of the deadline for opening the market, Guangzhou's China Textile circle was finally resumed. It is the largest wholesale market for garment accessories and accessories in Southern China. It has over 2 shops, with an annual turnover exceeding 200 billion yuan, forming a textile and garment industry circulation market including shops, garment factories and workshops, with over 100 thousand practitioners.

March was the peak season for purchasing, but this year's operation delayed one month, which also led to a slow recovery in the market order. According to a market source, the factory resumption does not represent the recovery of orders and production capacity. At present, the factory's utilization rate is only about 5-6.

In any case, now the major textile and garment clusters in China are gradually recovering, which also indicates that the domestic demand market is also recovering. Although many orders have been lagged behind by the epidemic, but it is easy to stimulate orders when the downstream market is slowing down.

"There are quite a few customers recently, and some are even urgent. It is obvious that the customers are also very anxious to catch up with the opportunity of the summer wear market." A trader in Wujiang said, "our foreign trade orders are shrinking at the moment, but the domestic market may be able to recover."

There are also many market participants who have heard that many textile and clothing bosses in Guangzhou are heavily pressed, and their basic stocks are in the hundreds of thousands or even millions, which means that their demand for fabrics will be more cautious. "From now on, all normalization may have to wait for the 6 and July autumn order production, hoping to inhibit the consumer market for a long time in the consumer retaliatory rebound, and only when customers buy and buy, can we sell, sell and sell!" Said the trader.