How Can Textile Enterprises Stabilize Foreign Trade Under The Epidemic Situation?

Under the epidemic, how is the progress of textile and garment production resuming? What is the trend of manufacturing transformation? What is the impact of the current and future foreign trade? And how should we take care of future consumption trends?

As a record player and lookout for the industry, the textile and clothing Weekly has opened an interactive interview column for "war epidemic reception hall". It invited entrepreneurs, experts and scholars to take part in the new difficulties and changes in the industry under the new crown pneumonia epidemic situation. With the export, consumption, production and other chapters, it will grasp the current situation with the industry readers and explore the way of development.

Guests during the current interview:

International Market Research Institute, Ministry of Commerce

Bai Ming, deputy director and researcher

Donghua University textile industry "one belt and one road"

Wang Hua, chief researcher of International Cooperation Center

Shanghai Zhong Hao Knitting Co., Ltd.

Chairman Gao Baolin

Host:

Textile and clothing weekly

Xu Changjie, deputy editor in chief

TA Weekly:

The new crown pneumonia epidemic poses severe challenges to the current foreign trade operation, but the impact of the epidemic is periodic and temporary. From the perspective of local and industry reflection, due to the impact of poor logistics and delayed start up, the growth rate of imports and exports will be substantially reduced from 1 to February this year. What aspects do you think the impact of the new crown on the foreign trade of the textile and garment industry comes from?

Gao Baolin:

In fact, for enterprises, the biggest impact on foreign trade or the upstream and downstream industry chain enterprises have not fully resumed work. At this stage, logistics has begun to flow smoothly, but because the upstream and downstream enterprises are still in the stage of gradual recovery, the delivery period is still unable to guarantee. On the other hand, due to the epidemic situation, it is very difficult to communicate with customers face to face, which will also affect some foreign trade orders. At the same time, at present, European and American markets are also affected by the epidemic, such as WAL-MART, and so on. Orders for textile and garment industry. For the textile and garment industry, foreign trade will remain in an unstable region for half a year.

Wang Hua:

The global spread of the new crown disease has led to the global economic crisis, and the consumption and consumption ability of the world's textile and apparel consumers has declined, especially luxury consumption. At the same time, the export of Chinese textile and garment products is bound to affect the global textile and apparel industry chain, supply chain and value chain.

TA Weekly:

Indeed, no one in the world today can be single. Recently, we have observed that many people compare and forecast the export of textile and clothing after the SARS epidemic in 2003 to the current post epidemic era. What do you think of this?

Bai Ming:

As one of the "six stability", due to the greater impact on the external environment, "stable foreign trade" is the most difficult and the most valuable. Since the beginning of this year, with the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, China's foreign trade has encountered severe challenges. The more stable the foreign trade is, the more difficult it will be.

In my view, judging the impact of the epidemic on China's foreign trade can not be simply interpreted as a replica of the impact of SARS 17 years ago. In July 2003, with the end of the SARS epidemic in the world, the foreign trade of our country did appear obvious recovery growth. In 2003, our import and export volume increased by 37.1%. Now, looking back, it is also the highest growth rate over the past 40 years since reform and opening up. Now that things are going on, we can not imagine a return to the substantial growth of foreign trade.

First, when the outbreak of SARS broke out 17 years ago, China was in the concentrated release period of the accession to the WTO, and now China's accession to the WTO dividend is not only fully released, but also China's position in developing countries in the WTO is challenged.

Second, when the outbreak of SARS broke out 17 years ago, the labor cost in China was relatively low, the average wage of workers was only 14040 yuan, while in 2019 it increased to 82461 yuan, and the increase was 17 in 17 years.

Third, the outbreak of SARS 17 years ago, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries have not yet challenged me in the labor-intensive industries, but now some domestic enterprises have transferred to Southeast Asian countries. It is not difficult to see that even if there is no epidemic situation, the pressure on foreign trade in China is very large at the present stage, and the epidemic situation is more serious than 17 years ago.

From this point of view, we can not wishfully believe that as long as the epidemic is over, stable foreign trade will not be a problem. Of course, compared with the past 17 years ago, the favorable conditions for stabilizing foreign trade were obvious. During the period of SARS, China's foreign trade scale was far less than that of now. In 2019, the import and export volume decreased by 1 percentage points, which was equivalent to 4.475 percentage points reduction in import and export volume in 2003. As the dependence on foreign trade has dropped from 52.2% in 2003 to 31.8% in 2019, the reduction in the proportion of foreign trade in the same period should be somewhat less than that in the period of SARS.

Wang Hua:

Many friends in the textile and garment industry prefer to compare the impact of the SARS epidemic on China's textile and garment industry in 2003. But I think the impact of the new crown epidemic on China's textile industry in 2020 is not the same, because the scope, depth, breadth and the global trading environment are totally different. The most important thing is the supply chain, so the most important thing now is to resume production, and China's textile and apparel industry chain and supply chain are our strengths and competitiveness. Second, the order is affected by the post epidemic period. Whether we can stabilize customers or stabilize orders is our comprehensive competitiveness. Enterprises should adjust their export strategies according to their specific circumstances. The second is the impact of exchange rate fluctuations.

TA Weekly:

Recently, we have learned that qualified foreign trade enterprises are paying close attention to the resumption of work and production. However, from a broader perspective, it will take some time to resume production, and the adjustment of the industrial chain will take time. Do you think this will affect the foreign trade orders of industry enterprises?

Bai Ming:

Resumption of production and recovery does not mean that foreign trade is stable. With the continuation of the epidemic, the difficulties in stabilizing foreign trade will extend from the resumption of production on the supply side to the market development on the demand side, and the premise of market development is that foreign customers are unwilling to continue to import from China. Moreover, unlike the outbreak of the outbreak, the current hot spots of epidemic outbreaks are no longer focused on China, but are being accelerated in some countries such as Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran, France, Germany and the United States. Not only are the breakpoints of the international industrial chain increasing, but also these market demand prospects are uncertain.

In this case, in addition to the more effective implementation of stable foreign trade in the maintenance and expansion of customer channels, if necessary, we also need to retreat in order to actively expand the domestic market, combined with the upgrading of consumption. In the era of economic globalization, the domestic market can be regarded as the "market of China" in the global market. Through deep ploughing the domestic market, domestic enterprises, especially some light textile enterprises, can leave "green hills" under the worsening external environment. Once the international market situation improves, these enterprises will have more opportunities to take the lead in the recovery of the international market.

TA Weekly:

Do you think there will be any new situations or opportunities for the Sino US trade frictions?

Wang Hua:

I think in the long run, there is no way for the us to suppress the trend toward China and the national strategy. The outbreak of the global epidemic this year, the United States is also deep in it, the United States economic and political turmoil, we have a rare window period to enhance and improve our mechanism and competitiveness. Under the premise of global logistics flow, we should seize the layout of the "one belt and one line" countries in the post epidemic period, and do well in the cooperation and transfer of production capacity.

TA Weekly:

For foreign trade enterprises, what aspects do you think should be taken to reduce the negative effects?

Bai Ming:

Although enterprises need to bear various costs during the fight against epidemics, they can not be regarded as spending money wrongly. They should focus on big accounts. I do not believe that China's foreign trade lacks the follow-up motive force to take the initiative to grow bigger and stronger. From the perspective of the international industrial chain, the epidemic makes us face many "breakpoints" in the upstream and downstream. Foreign trade enterprises are not easy to maintain their original trade partnership or to seek new partners. In addition, the current staff turnover and transportation logistics are not smooth, which means that the cost of maintaining trade channels is rising. In the context of combating the epidemic, it is also worthwhile for foreign trade enterprises to earn less or spend more money as long as they are in favor of maintaining their status in the international industrial chain.

Wang Hua:

I believe that the premise of stable foreign trade is to stabilize customers and steady orders. Secondly, we should upgrade management and marketing methods, and do well in the digitalization process of big data and industrial Internet +5G. Seize the iterative opportunity of online marketing, upgrade its own big data driven operation system, and speed up the digitalization and intelligent upgrading of enterprises. Team building, product matching, channel building, marketing and sales operation should be carried out in the international market. In the final analysis, the structure of export business or sales market can not be too single, and can not be confined to traditional markets and channels. Because single market and order business and no structural layout ahead of schedule will lead to a significant impact on the export of enterprises.

In the post epidemic market, the global health industry is bound to usher in explosive growth. The health and protection consciousness of people around the world will also be further enhanced. Health and health will be the theme of people's future life. For the underwear industry, consumers will pay more attention to healthy products and lifestyle, which will greatly stimulate the healthy underwear industry and the outbreak of peripheral protective products. Growth.

TA Weekly:

How do you anticipate the export situation of the textile and garment industry for the whole year?

Wang Hua:

I think this should be seen in different markets. This year, the countries along the belt and road along the textile and garment industry basically remain stable, especially in ASEAN and African countries, and the EU countries and the United States will further decline.

TA Weekly:

What do you think is the way to relieve the pressure on the industry?

Gao Baolin:

I think we should encourage private investment to stimulate the economy, and at the same time, we can further reduce taxes on enterprises. At present, the private sector has 60 or 70 trillion investment strength, but at present, the investment intention is not strong. Investment pull is the simplest and most effective way to alleviate the economy. At the same time, it can also reduce the export enterprise income tax. If there are difficulties in reducing the whole industry, we can reduce some difficult export enterprises.

Wang Hua:

In the face of the global economic crisis, textile enterprises are facing difficulties in domestic sales, product inventory increase and capital turnover. Export enterprises are facing difficulties in order reduction and export difficulties. Therefore, during the post epidemic period, I suggest:

First, it is suggested that governments at all levels should further classify and guide enterprises to help them, and help domestic enterprises to implement various policies that are mainly aimed at stabilizing employment, while increasing the intensity of bank lending rates. Second, the export rebate rate of export enterprises will be increased at a stage to help enterprises stabilize exports. Third, at present, domestic clothing enterprises have high inventory of clothing in spring and summer. It is suggested that enterprises should increase their discount strength, digest inventory and revitalize funds. Fourth, textile and garment enterprises should control the pace of foreign exchange settlement and sale and exchange rate hedging, because this year's exchange rate fluctuations are still frequent.

TA Weekly:

Under the background of the pressure of global economic and trade increasing, it is necessary for the international community to work together to tide over the difficulties. We are fully confident and capable of winning the epidemic prevention and control. We believe that with the steady progress of a series of stable foreign trade policies, China's trade development and business environment will be further improved. The epidemic is a reshuffle for our industry, and it needs to be hardened. The important prescription for enterprises to cope with the epidemic is to enhance their immunity. I believe that with the new phase effect of the epidemic prevention and control, foreign trade will usher in a recovery growth.