Polyester Chip Cash Flow Is Ample, The Future Market Can Be Expected.

2020 is bound to be an extraordinary year. With the easing of domestic public health incidents, the textile market has just been breather for a while. Heavy oil events, such as the collapse of crude oil and the outbreak of overseas public health events, have occurred continuously. Where is the market going? How can we get the plum blossom fragrance without a cold cut? The little spark before dawn, though not prairie, has little expectation for the future.



As shown in Figure 1, as a raw material oriented product, PET chips are not able to be independent. It is difficult to change the trend with the trend of the flow. It is more restricted from height inventory and low demand. Since January, the polyester factories have been shipped on a homebound basis, showing a downward trend of volatility. From the perspective of raw material PTA, Fuhai Chuang Chuang and Hengli line 3 began to enter the repair service in March 12th. It is expected that near the two week, the new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand installation week will enter the inspection and repair period at the beginning of this week. PTA is currently running as low as 69.17%, and its supply and demand has been alleviated. However, the short-term high storage pressure is difficult to release, and the PTA resilience is limited, which is expected to show a weak trend. On the whole, although the polyester load increased by nearly 80%, in the environment where public health events triggered a worldwide panic surge, the rebound and sustainability of pet cost rise will be unsatisfactory. It is too early to say that the market turning point is too high. But from the profit analysis, the average cash flow of polyester chips in 1-3 months reached 300 yuan / ton. Recently, the polyester raw material surface concussion descended, the cash flow was even higher to 500 yuan / ton, and the profit of polyester chip factory was more abundant. In addition, although the local large factory stock was still at a high level, but under the support of the contract goods and the downstream just needed replenishment, the overall inventory pressure had obviously relieved.


Regenerated PET and primary polyester chips can be substituted in some fields. After analyzing the price data in the past two years, the difference between the original slice and the regenerated PET basically maintained a difference of 800 yuan / ton, especially in October 2018, where the product price difference was more than 3500 yuan / ton. At present, the scissors difference between the two has shrunk to a level of 300 yuan / ton. Attention should be paid to the fact that all the transactions in the regenerated PET market are not tax free. The original slicing contains 6-8% tax points. If the tax point is deducted, the prices of the two varieties are upside down, the regeneration industry lacks standardization, and the regenerated PET is mostly small family businesses, and more than 8 of them are also used in the field of chemical fiber. The proportion of polyester chips added to recycled chemical fiber enterprises is increased, and the new material has enhanced the reverse substitution effect. According to long Zhong information research, some production and recycling hollow chemical fiber enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have increased the proportion of raw slicing, and there are also manufacturers in Southern China. However, if the regenerated chemical fiber factory is converted to produce raw chips, it will also face greater risks. First, the viscosity of regenerated PET is near 0.68, while the viscosity of raw slicing is low. If the proportion of raw raw materials increases, there will be technical transformation requirements. Secondly, although polyester chips at present have obvious price advantages, in the long run, if the initial investment is invested, the latter risk can not be predicted. From the present point of view, the products produced by the original slicing have great attraction, both in terms of product quality and price. If the scissors difference between the two has not been significantly expanded, recycled fiber enterprises are more favored by native chips.

Although the supply and demand pressure of polyester chip market is difficult to alleviate at present, there is still a great downward pressure, but at present, its cash flow is still near 500 yuan / ton, which is more abundant; the factory's mentality of stabilizing is obvious, the decline is still within the controllable range, and the linkage with renewable PET is more and more confidential.