"Gold Three Silver Four" Is Difficult To Flourish In The Busy Season, And The Textile Industry Suffers Under The Epidemic Situation.

Recently, influenced by the black swan event, the cotton yarn market has dropped again. Textile people have called "this year's life is really bad. This year, if we can survive, we will win." Indeed, since the outbreak of public health incidents in China, the market has been pushed down the pause button. Due to delayed start, some orders have been transferred, and with the slow start of textile market in mid 2 months, the market is gradually getting better. However, foreign public health events broke out around March and triggered a sharp fall in the financial market. Raw materials plunged and orders dropped sharply. The market turnover was once again bad. Some companies responded to public health events more than the Sino US trade war. The 3 and April traditional peak season will become the most difficult time.

The loss of orders for 5000 tons of large customers has aggravated.

With the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic abroad, the global panic has increased, and there has been an outbreak of infection in Europe, North America and Southeast Asia. At present, a number of countries have declared a state of emergency and issued a series of measures such as sealing up the country and sealing the city. Similar to the previous domestic situation, it is bound to enter the state of home office and semi shutdown of some enterprises to varying degrees.

Of course, this situation will also lead to a sharp decrease in the number of domestic foreign trade documents, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers will be suppressed. Although the early resumption of exports, but also will face the following two problems. First, after the terminal goods export to the port of destination, the efficiency of customs clearance and transhipment will be greatly reduced, and the extension of the transport age will also generate a lot of additional port storage and other expenses. Secondly, affected by the epidemic, downstream traders may not pick up or abandon. So on the whole, it has caused immeasurable loss to exports. ??

However, the domestic market demand is sluggish, and it is difficult to improve in the short term. According to the data, the inventory of weaving factories is about 38 days. Although the epidemic situation has been well controlled in China, the downstream market has not changed much, and the inventory period in the later period is relatively longer. Moreover, according to the China Garment Association's survey of the resumption of production and production of garment enterprises, as of March 6th, 29.4% of the survey enterprises reflected that the orders were reduced due to the low market demand and the cancellation of orders, and some enterprises reflected the sharp decline in domestic orders.

Not only is the chemical fiber weaving enterprise, but also the cotton spinning enterprises are not optimistic. According to the investigation, the Sino US trade relations improved before the festival, the foreign trade orders were partly reflued, and the order of cotton spinning enterprises was arranged for about 15 days, and some enterprises were arranged for about 1 months.

However, domestic public health events before and after the Spring Festival delayed the start of textile enterprises for 7-30 days after the holiday, and some orders were transferred. With the resumption of textile enterprises in the end of February, orders began to improve. However, since March, the demand for textile products has been suppressed again, and some enterprises have responded to the recent sharp drop in foreign trade orders, and the domestic trade orders have also returned. From the survey of some large textile enterprises, there are 5000 tons of large customer turnover, mainly due to foreign fabric customers return.

Tsarist Russia's "price war" is becoming more and more serious, and the cost collapse has led to an increase in corporate losses.

Last week, the crude oil market was breathtaking, with a weekly drop of more than 20%. First, OPEC and Russia led the non OPEC reduction agreement aborted, superimposed on the new crown pneumonia epidemic spread abroad, crude oil hit the largest single day decline since 2014. Saudi Arabia sharply lowered its official selling price in April and increased its crude oil output in April, adding 7 consecutive weeks of growth in US crude oil inventories. Although countries have also issued corresponding policy incentives, the market will not buy it and continue to continue the low oscillation pattern.

In March 18th, Saudi Arabia announced that it would increase crude oil exports to a record high of 10 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast in the second quarter from 30 US dollars to 20 U.S. dollars / barrel. International oil prices fell across the board, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 6.17% to 27.21 U.S. dollars / barrel, cloth oil fell 3.76% to 30.5 U.S. dollars / barrel. Compared with the price at the beginning of March, WTI and Brent oil prices almost cut.

Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil prices, PX also fell cliff clipper, as of 17, the Asian PX market closing price of 572.67 U.S. dollars / ton CFR China and 554.67 U.S. dollars / ton FOB Korea, compared with the beginning of March, 125 U.S. dollars / ton, down 17.91% and 22.54% respectively. The downward trend of the PX market center means that the cost center of PTA is going down. From the early March to the lowest price of the main contract, the PTA market's center of gravity moved down 674, down 15.67%.

According to the current PX price and the processing fee of 500 yuan / ton, the PTA cost should be around 3570 yuan / ton, close to the disk price.

Combined with the low price of crude oil and PTA in 2016, the price of PTA has reached a new low since listing, while the top oil is slightly higher than the 2016 low point, and PTA is in a state of overfall. Moreover, from 2020 to February, the added value of industrial above Designated Size in China was further confirmed in 1.

From 1 to February, the added value of above scale industries decreased by 13.5% in real terms. In February, the added value of above scale industries dropped by 26.63% compared with last month. Among them, the textile industry dropped by 27.2%, and chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry dropped by 12.3%. From the data point of view, the decline of textile industry data is nearly two times the data of chemical raw materials, which is at a low point in recent years.

With the lack of cost support, polyester has fallen into continuous decline. At this time, many weaving factories have expressed their losses. "Now it is equivalent to producing low price grey fabrics with high priced raw materials. Customers have been lowering prices. Our twill peach skin has fallen by 1!" A factory that specializes in peach skin.

Coincidentally, another manufacturer of memory cloth also has deep understanding: "now many manufacturers around us have reduced the start-up rate. It's not because of the workers. The workers are basically there. Besides Hubei, the main reason is that the raw materials are not clear now. Our gray fabric has been devalued, and we can not afford cheap raw materials recently. The salesperson who worked with us actually didn't sell it. I think polyester dropped too hard. I want to see if it will go up later. " "Polyester now has a bad price. If the polyester drops 500, the grey cloth will be reduced by at least 1 wool, the polyester will increase by 500, but the grey cloth will not go up. So now the price of grey cloth is really low, T400 last year to more than 5 yuan, only 4 yuan this year, no money to earn. A cloth boss said.

The silk weaving enterprises also fought a "price war".

Under the condition of high inventory and low demand, the textile bosses will generally be faced with the pressure of inventory and capital. The grey cloth in the warehouse has already occupied a lot of money. Wages, water and electricity, rents and so on must be paid in cash. In this case, if the gray cloth is not realized, unless the big family is big enough, there will be no pressure on the funds, otherwise the enterprises will not be able to sustain enough cash. In order to ensure the healthy operation of enterprises.

With the suppression of these two mountains, the phenomenon of selling on the market has come one after another, and even the best silk imitated in the near future is hard to escape. A person specializing in the production of silk imitation enterprises said that by the end of 2019, the price of 100D Chiffon was 2 yuan / meter, and now it has dropped to 1.8 yuan / meter. In March, the price of grey cloth was rising and queuing up for goods in March.

In the market downturn, many manufacturers will consider reducing production and holiday. In last year 7 and August, many factories and dyeing factories set up high temperature leave, but this year this situation is likely to be ahead of schedule. If the next order is difficult to continue, many manufacturers will consider reducing production or even having a holiday. In the short term, it is suggested that the larger stocks should be allowed to go on the market, and the transaction can be allowed to make profits; the lower inventory prices can be temporarily stable, and insist on the principle of production according to single production, along with production and strict control of stock.