In March, China'S Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Was 52%.

National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center

China Federation of logistics and purchasing

In March, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China continued to improve, and the production and living order was steadily restored. China's purchasing managers' index fell sharply last month, with the manufacturing industry PMI rising 52%, up 16.3 percentage points from last month. The non manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, up 22.7 percentage points from last month; the composite PMI output index was 53%, up 24.1 percentage points from last month. In March, the purchasing managers' index rose to a critical point above the rebound after the sharp decline in February. More reflecting that more than half of the survey enterprises have resumed their work and resumed production, which has improved since last month, and can not mean that China's economic operation has returned to normal level. As of March 25th, the rate of resumption of large and medium-sized enterprises was 96.6% in the national purchasing managers survey enterprises, up 17.7 percentage points from the February survey results.

1. Operation of purchasing managers index of China's manufacturing industry

In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 52%, up 16.3 percentage points from last month.

From the scale of enterprises, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises is 52.6%, 51.5% and 50.9%, respectively, up 16.3, 16 and 16.8 percentage points from last month.

According to the classification index, the production index, the new order index and the employee index all rise to the critical point in the 5 sub indices of manufacturing PMI. Raw material inventory index and supplier delivery time index are below the critical point.

The production index is 54.1%, up 26.3 percentage points from last month, which indicates that manufacturing output is increasing.

The new order index was 52%, up 22.7 percentage points from last month, indicating that the demand for manufacturing industry has been warmer.

The stock index of raw materials was 49%, up 15.1 percentage points from last month, indicating that the main raw material inventory in manufacturing industry has narrowed down.

The index of employees was 50.9%, up 19.1 percentage points from last month, indicating that the number of remanufacturing enterprises increased.

The supplier delivery time index was 48.2%, up 16.1 percentage points from last month, indicating that the supply of raw material suppliers of manufacturing industry is still slow.

Two. Operation of China's non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

In March, the index of non manufacturing business activity was 52.3%, up 22.7 percentage points from last month.

According to the industry, the business activity index of the service sector was 51.8%, up 21.7 percentage points from last month. In terms of industry category, except for capital market services, business activities index of other industries has picked up in varying degrees. The construction business activity index was 55.1%, up 28.5 percentage points from last month.

The new orders index was 49.2%, up 22.7 percentage points from last month, indicating a decline in demand for non manufacturing industries. According to the industry, the new order index of the service sector was 49.3%, up 22.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the construction industry new orders index was 48.4%, up 24.6 percentage points from last month.

The price index of the input goods was 49.4%, although it rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points from last month, but it is still below the critical point, which indicates that the overall price level of the non manufacturing enterprises for the business activities has declined. According to the industry, the price index of the service industry input is 48.9%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry input price index is 52.5%, down 1.5 percentage points from last month.

The sales price index was 46.1%, up 2.2 percentage points from last month, indicating that the overall level of non manufacturing sales prices had narrowed. According to the industry, the sales price index of the service sector was 44.9%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the construction industry sales price index was 52.5%, up 1.6 percentage points from last month.

The employment index was 47.7%, up 9.8 percentage points from last month. According to the industry, the index of service industry employees was 46.7%, up 7.8 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry employment index was 53.1%, up 20.8 percentage points from last month.

Business activity expectations index was 57.3%, up 17.3 percentage points from last month, indicating that the confidence of non manufacturing enterprises in the recent market development has been restored. According to the industry, the service sector business activity index is 56.8%, up 17.1 percentage points from last month, and the construction industry activity activity index is 59.9%, up 18.1 percentage points from last month.

Three. Operation of China's comprehensive PMI output index

In March, the composite PMI output index was 53%, up 24.1 percentage points from last month, indicating that China's enterprises' production and business activities generally recovered faster.

Note appended

1. main indicators explanation

The purchasing managers index (PMI) is an index compiled by the monthly survey results of enterprise purchasing managers. It covers all aspects of enterprise procurement, production and circulation, including manufacturing and non manufacturing industries. It is one of the international leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends. It has strong prediction and early warning effect. The comprehensive PMI output index is a comprehensive index reflecting the output changes of the whole industry (manufacturing and non manufacturing industries) in the PMI index system. When PMI is above 50%, it reflects the overall expansion of the economy from the previous month; below 50% reflects the overall contraction of the economy from the previous month.

2. scope of investigation

It involves 31 industry categories, 3000 survey samples, 37 industry categories and 4000 survey samples in the manufacturing industry classification of the national economy (GB/T4754-2017).

3. survey methodology

Purchasing managers investigate the adoption of PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, with manufacturing or non manufacturing industries as the main category, and the sample size of the industry is allocated to the proportion of all manufacturing or non manufacturing added value according to their added value, and the probability of sampling is proportional to the proportion of the main business income in the sample.

The survey was carried out by the investigation team directly under the National Bureau of statistics.

4. calculation method

(1) calculation method of classification index. The purchasing management survey index system of manufacturing industry includes production, new orders, new export orders, in hand orders, finished goods inventory, purchase quantity, import, main raw material purchase price, ex factory price, raw material inventory, employees, supplier delivery time, production and operation activity expectations 13 classification index. Non Manufacturing Purchasing Managers survey index system includes business activity, new orders, new export orders, in hand orders, inventory, input price, sales price, employees, supplier delivery time, business activity expectations and so on 10 sub index. The index of classification is calculated by diffusion index, that is, the percentage of enterprises answered positively and half of the percentage of respondents who answered the same. Because there is no composite index in the non manufacturing sector, the general business activity index is generally used to reflect the overall change of the economic development of the non manufacturing industry.

(2) the calculation method of PMI index in manufacturing industry. Manufacturing PMI is calculated by weighting the 5 diffusion indices (classification index). The 5 classification index and its weights are determined according to their antecedent impact on the economy. Including: the new order index, the weight is 30%, the production index, the weight is 25%, the employee index, the weight is 20%, the supplier delivery time index, the weight is 15%, the raw material inventory index, the weight is 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, and the reverse operation is made in the synthetic manufacturing PMI index.

(3) comprehensive PMI output index calculation method. The composite PMI output index is weighted by the manufacturing production index and the non manufacturing business activity index. The weights are the proportion of manufacturing and non manufacturing industries to GDP.

5. seasonal adjustment

Purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey, which is affected by seasonal factors and fluctuates greatly. The indices now are all seasonally adjusted.