The Spread Of The Epidemic: Most Of The Foreign Trade Orders Such As Textiles And Garments Have Been Cancelled. How To Deal With The Challenges?

Author: Chen Xingjie

The fall of Europe and America is not a good thing.

These two days, more than 10 thousand restaurants in Wuhan resumed takeaway business, which is a good sign.

The normal production and living order of Wu Han people gradually recovered. Outside Wuhan, the epidemic level of Hubei has been reduced to intermediate level. Enterprises have received permission to start work and their employees have gone to the whole country. From a broader perspective, by the end of three, the rate of resumption of production in the national production enterprises has exceeded 80%. I believe we can basically restore our normal life order without waiting for summer.

Looking at adjacent Japan and South Korea, the early epidemic is also very serious. Over the past month, the epidemic has been suppressed. The world's most devastated economic sector, East Asia, is the first to get out of the haze. In contrast, Europe and the United States are in the outbreak stage.

As of 17:56 Beijing time 31, the total number of confirmed cases in Europe exceeded 330 thousand, and the number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeded 160 thousand.

From the epidemic curve, Europe and the United States still have more than a month or even longer to usher in a stable epidemic situation. This huge contrast makes many people feel carefree and pleasant, especially when it comes to the fact that China's early shock epidemic prevention measures have been criticized and misunderstood by European and American countries, but now they have learned it.

　　 It is hard to avoid gloating over the bad news.

　　 1, take advantage of the epidemic curve overtaking? This is not realistic.

A lot of people gloat over the budget. They believe that the current epidemic situation in Europe and America is serious, and that China is alone. This is a good opportunity to overtake corners. China's production stagnation in the first two months. Now it's the turn of the US and Europe, China is just coming back.

The bigger hope is that the rise of Chinese enterprises will replace the position of European and American enterprises in the international division of labor and upgrade the industrial chain.

This kind of wild hope is, of course, only an imagination.

Industrial substitution is not completed in just a few months. In the global economic system, the European and American countries occupy relatively high-end links, which is the result of long-term institutional safeguards and intellectual accumulation.

China, of course, is a good student in the developed countries, and it has learned for decades to have a small success. How can it have short-term subversion capability? Just as China's epidemic is serious, it can affect the stability of the supply chain, and all countries can only do it. Everyone knows that masks will be the most urgent.

Materials can only wait for China's capacity recovery to solve the problem.

The production of respirators is so simple that they do not want to overturn or subversion, let alone other complex industries. Therefore, holding the idea of "overtaking the epidemic industry" is totally unrealistic.

China's industry needs to go beyond the rest of the world by relying on the Long March, the long-term and unremitting efforts, and the short-term impact of the epidemic.

It's very limited.

　　 2, the European and American cities are on fire, and China will suffer.

Taking advantage of the fact that the epidemic can not account for long term cost is profitable in the short term, such as China's massive production of respirators, protective clothing and ventilators, which are exported to the world. This is the truth.

And be not so.

In the face of humanitarian disasters, half a half of the total amount of money needed for the epidemic is not up to scratch. In the months to come, even if the export of medical protective materials is increasing in the coming months, it will be nothing at all in the face of severe export contraction.

What is the impact of the epidemic on China's economy? Recently, the magazine published a report on the difficult situation of China's garment foreign trade enterprises in the past three months.

Three months, the difficult situation of China's clothing foreign trade enterprises.

In the first two months of this year, domestic garment factories were unable to return to work due to the Spring Festival holidays and epidemic situation. The overseas market is eager to stock up, and the order is pressing. Manufacturers are rich and unearned, but also suffer from cost pressures and anxieties. It is hard to ease the domestic epidemic and rush to resume work.

From March to June, most of the garment trade orders in the European and American markets were cancelled, and the market after June was also hard to be optimistic. A reporter visited Zhejiang's famous "China Textile City", where more than 80% of the business people have been opened for business, but business has plummeted.

In the past, 100 thousand people came in and out every day, but now only 10%. The reason is that European and American orders have been cancelled.

The upstream industries of garment industry, yarn factories and fabric factories are also affected.

Spread. Recently, a video conference on the "international economic situation outlook" held by the China Development Research Foundation revealed that the recovery rate in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is as high as 90%, and only about 30% of those actually live.

The sharp drop in orders has put pressure on foreign trade enterprises. Many factories in Bangladesh, Kampuchea, Burma and Vietnam have to lay off on a large scale or temporarily shut down.

In addition to clothing, shoes, toys and other foreign trade dependence is very high.

Industries and other industries have not been spared. In March 21st, the "precision watch industry" issued a notice in Dongguan, announcing that the factory was on holiday for 3 months, and advised employees to find another job.

"Precision watch industry" is one of the most famous tabulation enterprises in China. It can produce millions of meters per year, basically exported to Europe and the United States, with an annual output value of over 1 billion. There are many generations of factories in similar situations. Once the epidemic exceeds half a year, they will be faced with the fate of bankruptcy.

Since March, a sentence has been widely circulated in the foreign trade circle. In the face of the epidemic, "half the domestic market and half the rest of the world."

Market, foreign trade people play the whole game. This image illustrates the current situation of Chinese foreign trade people.

Nearly 60 million people directly engaged in foreign trade activities in China, plus related industries, totaled more than 160 million practitioners. If we take into account the real estate, automobile and other industries affected by the foreign trade downturn, the whole economy will be greatly affected.

Not only the consumer market depends on Europe and America, but also in the industrial chain.

Chinese people and producers all over the world have also formed close cooperation. The relationship between them is both prosperous and bad.

Zhengzhou Foxconn factory shut down, Apple Mobile shipment will be affected; Hubei serious epidemic, French and German automobile companies once faced with a halt.

Two months ago, many people saw that China is very important to the world. Entering the March, we also found that the world is as important as China.

In late March, more than 70 car factories in Europe stopped working, and more than half of these manufacturing plants were supplied by Chinese manufacturers. The European and American epidemic is puzzled for a day. I do not know how many Chinese enterprises will be faced with a crisis of suspension.

　　 3, China helps foreign countries and helps itself.

In today's world, enterprises in Europe and the United States are generally at the highland of the world production chain. Many of their knowledge level and technological capability are worth learning by Chinese enterprises.

The prosperity of Europe and the United States will bring prosperity to China. The declining Europe and the United States will not bring real benefits in addition to meeting the psychological needs of some Chinese "surpassing Britain and catching up with the United States" and "the rise of great powers". China's rise should be based on its own development.

It is not the decline of other countries.

This is also the reason why China needs foreign aid in this epidemic. Chinese people export knowledge and experience of epidemic prevention, help other countries out of crisis, and help others in helping themselves.

Today, with such close international exchanges and cooperation, no country has been left alone -- and China has already had enormous influence and hopes to expand this influential power.

How should China help the countries with serious epidemics? There are different ways based on different national conditions. It is very important to send a competent medical expert team to pass the right anti epidemic experience. In addition, actively developing China's productive capacity and exporting goods to the world also contribute to the fight against disease.

At present, the daily output of Chinese masks is over 100 million. With the ease of domestic epidemic and the decrease of demand, a large number of respirators can be exported abroad. In the late stage of epidemic prevention and control, whether the respirator is sufficient will directly affect the resumption of production.

At the recent G20 summit of state leaders, Chinese leaders said that China will intensify its efforts to supply raw materials, daily necessities and epidemic prevention materials to the international market. It will implement a proactive fiscal policy and a stable monetary policy, unswervingly expand reform and opening up, relax market entry and optimize the business environment.

We should actively expand exports and foreign investment and contribute to the stability of the world economy. Give this statement a compliment.

China is a big country. If we are generous, we must continue to do the right things and win respect.