The "China Core" Under The Epidemic Situation: The Demand Prospect Is Confused And The Production Plan Is Delayed For The Two Quarter Or The Key Moment Of "Changing The Market".

With the rapid spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the semiconductor industry chain, which has been rising sharply in the early stage of the collapse, is expected to decline sharply.

By the end of April 1st, the SW Semiconductor Index has fallen by 21.45% since March. At present, the only chip design leader in the first quarter of 2020 announced that Santa bond shares, despite the Q1 performance forecast or an increase of 70%~100% over the same period, did not resist the panic of investors and fell by 1.8% in April 1st.

According to the latest forecast data of IDC in March, the possibility of shrinking the global semiconductor industry in 2020 is close to 80%, rather than the 2% expected growth.

"In the short term, the impact is not large. Taking the mobile phone industry chain as an example, many customers are still making up for the shortfall in the rate of operation in February, and there is no large-scale slash sale. But looking ahead to the two quarter, demand side pressure will be relatively large. In recent years, mobile phone sales in Europe and India have dropped significantly in overseas markets. We understand that Media Markt, Europe's largest consumer electronics chain, is closed in mid March. If the epidemic persists for a long time, it will definitely affect terminal sales performance. In April 1st, Fang Jing, chief analyst of XinDa's securities and electronics industry, pointed out.

The first quarter is still optimistic.

In recent years, with the outbreak of the global epidemic, investors are generally panic about the semiconductor industry, especially those listed overseas.

According to the data compiled by Guoxin Securities, the semiconductor industry earned 50 billion 200 million yuan in overseas business in 2018, accounting for about 44.48% of the total revenue of the semiconductor industry, accounting for 44.48% of the total. Overseas business revenue of more than 1 billion of about 9, of which, long power technology in 2018, foreign revenue amounted to 19 billion 806 million yuan, Tongfu micro power in 2018 and 2019 external revenue were 6 billion 220 million yuan and 6 billion 663 million yuan.

Of the 50 semiconductor companies, about 19 overseas revenue accounts for over 30%, and about 15 overseas revenues account for more than 50%. Among them, trillion easy innovation in 2018 and 2019 accounted for 86.73% of overseas revenue, respectively, 82.39%, the former in 2018 and 2019 overseas revenue accounted for 86.41%, 81.27%, respectively, the latter, long power technology 2018, overseas revenue accounted for 79.25%.

Among them, Changdian technology is a big increase in overseas business after buying star company. According to Changdian technology, on the interactive platform, the company has 85% domestic and international customers. The world's top 20 semiconductor companies are company customers, and the company has signed a confidentiality agreement with key customers.

In April 1st, the economic report reporters in twenty-first Century, respectively, telephoned Changdian technology and Tongfu micro electric securities department to inquire about the influence of the spread of overseas epidemic on the offshore business of listed companies, and the two connection personnel all indicated that they could not evaluate it, and stressed that "it is mainly about the change of the epidemic situation, whether it can be prevented or controlled". Company ".

However, some market participants believe that manufacturers in the near future will benefit from the crisis.

"Southeast Asia is an important base for the global sealing test industry. Affected by the epidemic, many Southeast Asian countries have blocked the blockade and sealed the production capacity to tighten up. Therefore, the production capacity of many sealing tests will be transferred to domestic production. In the short term, it will be a good thing for Alex Hua Tian, the leader of long distance electric power company. Fang Jing said.

The people of Tongfu micro electric securities department also said: "it is possible that the volume of orders will decrease, but it is possible that some overseas orders will be transferred to China." Now the change is too fast to say clearly. We can only say that there was no significant decrease in the first quarter.

For the chip industry, such as Mega innovation and San Bang shares, the reason why its overseas revenue accounts for a relatively high proportion of its earnings is mostly the problem of performance accounting, which does not mean that its overseas customers are more.

"A lot of semiconductor design companies, such as San bond, their income statistics are based on their customers' registry. There are many dealers registered in Hongkong. But through the terminal market, most of them are still in the mainland of China, and the proportion is not so high. Fang Jing said.

Overall, the twenty-first Century economic report reporter learned that the market performance of the semiconductor industry in 2020 is more optimistic. At present, a semiconductor leading enterprise with a quarterly bulletin, Sheng Bang shares and Tongfu micro power all have a higher year-on-year growth rate. Among them, Sheng Bang shares are expected to earn 26 million 963 thousand and 200 yuan -3172.14 million yuan, an increase of 70%~100% over the same period last year.

"A quarterly report should be good as a whole. On the one hand, the domestic substitution will continue to promote the performance of the relevant companies. On the other hand, it is the trade friction between China and the United States during the same period last year. We are very cautious about the forecast of demand, leading to a very low base in the first quarter." Fang Jing said.

He explained further: "after the demand recovered in the second half of last year, there was a clear shortage of demand. So this year, although there are epidemic impacts, many manufacturers are also increasing efforts to pull goods at this time. Because enterprises are worried that demand will resume after the outbreak, but supply may not be enough, so it is not easy to cut the bill, but this problem must be dialectically observed. If the epidemic continues, it will surely happen, but only in the short term.

Long term depends on the degree of epidemic control.

It is worth mentioning that although a quarterly data market is mostly neutral and optimistic, no one has been able to decide on the long-term changes. From the supply side, most of the domestic semiconductor enterprises have resumed production, and the recovery rate of A semiconductor enterprises such as Zhuo Sheng Wei and Changdian technology is more than 90%. The biggest uncertainty lies mainly in the demand side.

Mega innovation, which has just held an investor exchange conference, has expressed the aspirations of many domestic semiconductor enterprises.

In response to investors' enthusiastic questions, the most frequently used response was "uncertainty". "The development of the new crown pneumonia is beyond expectation, and it looks likely to continue in the second quarter. For a company, the supply chain will produce uncertainty, and uncertainty will also arise at the demand side. At present, the company is actively taking measures to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the performance. At present, due to the uncertainty of the epidemic situation, it is very difficult for the company to give a very specific judgement.

According to Siyi innovation executives, the supply of NOR Flash products has been interfered with at present. The plan of increasing production will be temporarily delayed. The MCU market in the second, third quarter of 2020 has great uncertainty due to the influence of the new crown.

"Affected by the new crown epidemic, the sale of electronic products in the first quarter of 2020 has been seriously affected. Now the epidemic is spreading abroad. It is judged that the sale of electronic products in the two quarter of 2020 will be more impacted, affecting the time and even longer. As the downstream demand is expected to decline sharply, the upstream semiconductor is expected to be more impacted. " New era securities electronic team said.

Fang Jing also pointed out: "the valuation of semiconductor to the market often includes the anticipation of its rapid growth. If the next outbreak has a greater impact on demand, even if domestic substitution can resist a partial decline, it will still have an impact on the enterprise, so this is also an important reason for the early market callback."

However, there are market participants believe that if the epidemic is well controlled, the three quarter is expected to usher in an inflection point.

"The uncertainty in the two quarter is relatively high. Now the most uncertain thing about the epidemic is the two quarter. But now it is generally believed that the most pessimistic epidemic is not likely to last until the three quarter, and it controls or inflection points in April or June. The three quarter is also the traditional peak season. However, my attitude is not optimistic, but as long as the global epidemic can be controlled, the semiconductor industry can be maintained at almost the same level as last year, at least not worse than Q2 in 2018 Q3-2019. A semiconductor brokerage analyst at a medium-sized brokerage firm in Shanghai said. (Editor: Wu Yan Ling)

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