For A Long Time, The "Closed Disk Sale" Reproduces The Polyester Market. Who Is In The Bottom Of The Sudden Surge Of Prices?

After a period of downturn, international crude oil prices rebounded sharply. Because the market is expected to reach a global crude oil reduction agreement next week, oil producing countries will implement about 10%-15% reduction in global demand. Last week, the US oil retaliatory rebounding was over 30%, and Brent crude oil futures also surged more than 20%, recording the largest single weekly percentage increase.

This week, crude oil rebounded sharply, polyester speculative demand increased significantly, polyester filament inventory significantly reduced. After a round of speculative purchases before and after the Ching Ming holidays, the pressure on polyester factories to reduce production is not there. In addition to a reduction in inventory pressure, a good cash flow recovery has been brought up after the rise in price. 4-5 on the two day, the price of polyester is rising at an estimated price of 400 yuan / ton, which is close to 250 yuan of 3 days. The rise of synthetic polyester has reached 650 yuan, and some of the specifications have increased or even exceeded 1000 yuan. Overall, the increase of POY is close to 15%. In terms of inventory of the polyester factory, compared with the previous POY stock for 31 days, FDY stock for 30.5 days and DTY stock for 33.2 days, polyester stocks dropped sharply to 15-22 days this week.

Raw materials procurement, with the emergence of ultra-low price of crude silk, crude oil production news, downstream speculative demand increased, or even a lot of speculation on the sidelines. In April 2nd, the production and sale of polyester and silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang reached 300%. In April 3rd, production and sales continued to reach 240%. In April 4th, the production and sales of Qingming holidays exceeded 340%. The stock of terminal looms and looms is not uniform. In particular, some factories have weak expectations for absolute demand. There are differences in the operation of the purchase. The stocking is concentrated in 30-60 days and less in stock within 15 days. The estimated stock volume in the comprehensive market is near 25 days. But in addition to downstream weaving, adding bombs and traders' stockings, there are still some speculative buyers in hardware bosses, construction bosses, asphalt bosses and plastic owners.

But on the other hand, due to the drop in external demand, weaving began to fall sharply. Last week, Jiangsu and Zhejiang terminal operation rate was lowered. As of last Friday, the combined load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 66% and loom load was 41%. Affected by the cancellation of 3 months, the general impact of the domestic sale of goods is generally high. The downstream factories often arrange short stops to clear up the stock up speed during Qingming holidays. Friday, weaving, Haining warp knitting due to overhaul of the circuit in advance, the boot dropped to 2 in the vicinity, Changshu warp knitted down to 4-5, Shaoxing round machine dropped to 3 near, Changxin water spray reduced to 5 nearby, Wujiang water spray reduced to 6-7 in the vicinity; add bombs, Changxin dropped to 5 in the vicinity, Cixi to 6-7%, Taicang, Xiaoshao, Changshu reduced to 7-8.

Under the pressure of sharp deterioration of the global demand and overflowing of stocks, the oil producing countries themselves have a very strong demand for price control, and the urgent meeting is imperative. However, two key problems remain. First, Saudi Arabia's leading OPEC will not play alone to shoulder the responsibility of reducing production and heavy responsibility. Even if Russia's leading non OPEC oil producing countries agree to join the negotiations, the share dispute will also be a long discussion process. Second, it is still a question mark whether the oil producers once again join hands to reduce production or not. The current situation of global demand reduction and the accelerated consumption of inventory space means that the reduction of supply has limited effect on the oil market's return to balance. The market generally expects that global oil demand will be reduced by more than 20 million barrels per day. At present, the oil price is uncertain and volatile before the OPEC enlarged meeting.

On the basis of the loss of foreign trade orders and scarce domestic orders, the operation pressure of polyester enterprises has increased dramatically. The mass production operation has increased pressure on production and operation, and the contradiction between production costs and enterprise funds has been highlighted. If a large number of goods are hoarding, short and medium term risks may be faced. Therefore, it is suggested that we should not blindly stock up the stock market in the short term. There is nothing wrong with just stocking up. This "bottom" even if it is "bottom", the grinding time is also a long and repeated process, and there is no need to rush for a while.