When The Property Market Resumed, The Sales Office Was Cautious To Welcome The Site.

In April 9th, Wang Wei, a real estate buyer, finally entered the scene of a real estate project in Shijingshan District, Beijing after measuring his body temperature, producing "green code", completing personal data and virus killing, and so on.

Since opening to the outside world, the project has received very limited customers every day. On the one hand, according to the requirements of epidemic prevention work, project implementation is limited, buyers need to make an appointment in advance to see the house. On the other hand, as the most stringent area outside Hubei Province, the enthusiasm of Beijing buyers has not yet fully recovered.

The recovery of the property market in the south is generally faster than that in the north. As early as mid March of this year, there was a phenomenon of robbing the housing market in Suzhou. Local housing prices to the twenty-first Century economic report said that on the basis of doing a good job in epidemic prevention, Suzhou property market turnover has basically returned to its usual level.

At the beginning of the year, a sudden outbreak of the new crown pneumonia caused the real estate market to stagnate. It is an unbearable burden for real estate companies that are heavily dependent on cash flow and are in the market downturn. With the epidemic gradually being controlled, from mid March, the resumption of the national property market has opened. In addition to the sales office, some construction sites run day and night, even disturbing the phenomenon.

Developers can imagine the urgent mentality, but they can not unilaterally control the pace of work. On the one hand, the construction process of many construction sites has been affected by the fact that workers are not yet fully on duty. On the other hand, the degree of release of market demand needs further observation.

So how much effort can these efforts make up for the shortfall caused by the epidemic? There seems to be some doubt at the moment.

From resumption to "nuisance"

With the epidemic gradually being controlled, by the end of 3, sales offices in various cities across the country were mostly open. In April 8th, with the release of Wuhan, the first sales offices in Wuhan were also open.

From a national perspective, the southern city sales offices are generally more heat than the north. A Liuzhou housing company official told the twenty-first Century economic report that the major sales offices in Liuzhou were all open in March. By the beginning of April, the passenger flow of the company's project has been "very close to" normal level.

In some northern cities such as Beijing, because the requirements for epidemic prevention and control are stricter, sales offices have generally failed to return to normal levels. Market participants said that at present there are more new housing projects in Beijing, but the situation and volume of transactions have not recovered.

To compensate for the impact of the epidemic, many housing enterprises continue to implement online sales, and at the same time, with the help of online live broadcast, VR and other means to strengthen publicity and promotion, so as to achieve storage customers.

Wuhan, once an epidemic center, is also slowly returning to the market after the "start button" is re pressed. According to the twenty-first Century economic report, it is necessary to make an appointment in advance to see the premises at the sales office. Buyers must enter the sales offices for strict elimination. Some projects also require that the sales department at the same time maintain up to two groups of customers.

Also beginning in late March, with the gradual return of migrant workers, real estate project sites have gradually resumed work. Among them, in order to catch up with the construction period, part of the construction site "travel day and night", and even to the extent of "nuisance".

In early April, Ms. Zhai, who lives in Aviation Road in Xiangyang, Hubei, began to be harassed by site noise. Since the resumption of work, a construction site near her house has been working day and night, seriously affecting her work and rest. To this end, she had to complain to law enforcement agencies.

Ms. Zhai's Xiangyang, Hubei, was the "worst hit area" of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. In two months, business and production activities almost stagnate until the end of 3. The site of the "civil FA Xing Yue Li" project near the home of Ms. Zhai has been working day by night, which has caused great distress to the surrounding residents' life.

Mr. Liu, Xuwen County, Zhanjiang, Guangdong, is also facing the same trouble. A real estate site near Mr. Xu's home has been working late every day since resuming work. The situation did not improve until complaints were made to the local housing authority.

Supply rhythm may be blocked

The rush to work on the site reflects a sense of urgency among developers. "If the construction period is shortened by two months, it will affect the supply of 20%-30% at least for the whole year." Beijing Housing enterprises said.

According to the introduction, due to climate conditions, environmental protection requirements, major festivals and other effects, the construction period of the northern cities is usually between 6 months and 8 months. The southern city will be extended for 1-2 months due to the warm climate.

The person said that the epidemic occurred at the beginning of the end of the year, although it coincided with the seasonal mitigation period of winter construction activities, the actual impact lasted for about two months. In areas where the epidemic is serious and the prevention and control requirements are relatively high, the impact will be longer.

Some people said that some cities encouraged real estate construction sites to resume work, while reducing pre-sale conditions, which helped to speed up the supply. But in the short term, the construction site has not yet reached the daily construction rhythm. Because a reality is that many workers are not yet fully relocated due to the fact that workers have not yet been fully employed.

He said that the phenomenon of disturbing the people's work day and night is still a case. Therefore, this year's market supply will still have a gap.

In twenty-first Century, the economic report learned that in order to make up for the supply gap, many housing enterprises emphasized speeding up the pace of construction and taking measures such as price reduction, so as to quickly withdraw funds.

Earlier, because of the sharp reduction in sales, coupled with the tight financing environment, the cash flow of housing companies is generally tightening. In the first quarter of this year, some housing enterprises were expecting debt.

In addition to sales and cash flow, due to the shortening of the construction period, the delivery of the project will be delayed and will directly affect revenue. A recent report released by the S & P pointed out that the construction of the new building in 2020 was suspended for about two months, which could lead to some of the projects originally planned for this year to be postponed to 2021, making the recognition of 2020 revenue likely to face a further decline. Meanwhile, this year's construction moratorium may trigger a rise in the leverage ratio of housing companies.

Rebound dynamics?

At the sales side, after the stagnation in February, the market is moving out of the bottom of the "V" type, showing a fast recovery trend.

Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute pointed out that by March this year, the sales of top 100 housing companies had recovered to 80% of the same period last year. Among them, the leading housing enterprises take the lead in recovery, and the sales of the top ten Housing enterprises have recovered to about 90% of the same period last year. Housing prices generally believe that by the second quarter of this year, the market is expected to return to normal levels.

Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute, told the twenty-first Century economic report that the opening of the sales office meant that the epidemic situation was relieved, and the barriers to house purchase and housing purchase were gradually eliminated. As for the fundamental reasons for market recovery, it includes the gradual release of earlier overdue demand and the sale of developers.

According to the first quarter sales data released by the housing enterprises, sales decline has become the mainstream, and the phenomenon of "price change" is very common. Taking two leading housing companies as an example, the average selling price for the first quarter was 13620 yuan / square meter, down 7.4% compared to the same period last year. The average price of Hengda was 8887 yuan / square meter, a drop of 18%.

Yan Yuejin believes that from the second half of last year, the real estate market has entered the downward channel. In the absence of a fundamental loosening of the housing market regulation policy, the market is likely to have a moderate recovery rather than a retaliatory rebound. In this process, due to the impact of capital chain tension, price promotions will continue to appear.

S & P also believes that the rebound in sales may be fragile. "Demand is still highly dependent on the confidence of consumers (and investment type buyers), and in the light of the downward trend of the global economy, consumer confidence is not certain." The agency expects that the national real estate sales volume will drop by 5%-10% in 2020.

The sale of developers may be affected. In March 10th, Xu Huafang, President of Baolong real estate, admitted at the performance meeting that "our sales target will be a little 'discount" under the influence of the epidemic. Other analysts believe that this year's housing enterprises to achieve sales targets will be difficult.

Many companies have already lowered their performance expectations this year. According to Ping An Securities statistics, the average sales growth rate of 30 Housing enterprises in 2020 was 14%. Compared with the 30% increase in 2019, it dropped by 16 percentage points.

S & P also pointed out that the gross profit margin of the industry has declined before the outbreak due to rising land costs, price fixing policies and sharp price cuts. In terms of various conditions, this trend is expected to continue this year.

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