Nothing To Do! Weaving Market Has A Large Area Of "Tired Library"! What Is More Important Than The Raw Material Is Guaranteed Cost. Stop Loss!

I thought 2019 was the worst year, but I didn't expect it to be the best year in the next three years.

Some time ago, the textile market focused on "order cancellation", "no single business to do" and "foreign trade suspension". Recently, market participants are most concerned about the "start-up rate" and "inventory".

In the near future, except for melt blown fabrics and non-woven fabrics, the rest of the conventional varieties on the market can be said to have entered a "dead end". The shrinking of terminal demand has led to a serious lack of market order. The decline in foreign trade and domestic demand has seriously depressed the market of weaving.

Drop in rate

In order to stop losses, many weaving factories reduce the cost by reducing the start-up rate or two shifts into three shifts. At present, the opening rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is below 7, compared with 9 in the same period last year, and after last year's Qingming, the market began to go downhill. It did not usher in the traditional sense of "Silver Four".

　　 Control inventory accumulation

If there is no order, the weaving manufacturer will not be able to start work. Otherwise, the inventory of grey fabric will continue to rise, or will be more horrid than the 2019. Up to now, the inventory of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has risen to 42 days, approaching the highest inventory level last year.

　　 Zhang Zhang, who owns 300 looms, said: "at present, we have no orders on hand, and all foreign trade customers are suspended. No order, the most important thing is the inventory problem. Now there is about 300 thousand meters of inventory, no order, inventory accumulation is absolute, so when Qingming when the node closed the 1/3 machine, workers from two shifts to three shifts. The market is really bad. It looks as if it is looking at the top. Next may may be 7 days off. "

At the same time, Zhu Zhu, a master of silk imitation, also said that the market was not good after the year, and the order was very unsatisfactory. The order from the year to the present has decreased by nearly 70% compared with the same period in the past year, which is a relatively conservative estimate. Now looms are full, but they are basically doing inventories. If the market does not improve at the end of the month, it will consider reducing production. After all, raw materials, labor, electricity and water and stock are all money. According to the current situation, there is no big reversal in the market. Stopping the machine is a matter of time.

Besides the order, start-up rate and inventory, the hot topic of textile industry is raw material.

Over the past half year, the raw materials have made the textile market confidence under pressure. The price of raw materials has been constantly exploring the bottom, which is even letting the volume and price of grey fabric fall. As we all know, the price of raw polyester filament has been affected by PTA and MEG, and the price of raw materials will be fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials will fluctuate, and the price of PTA and MEG will be affected by the crude oil market. It can be said that the price of polyester is basically the same as that of crude oil and polyester raw materials.

But in the past two days, the crude oil and polyester market seems to be "parting".

In April 9th, because of Mexico boycott, negotiations on the OPEC+ reduction agreement were fruitless. The international crude oil market has experienced a "huge earthquake night". Brent crude oil futures prices rose more than 10%, closing down 2.73%. The trend of New York crude oil futures is basically the same. It has surged nearly 13% at a time. After the negotiations broke down, the news plunged rapidly and closed down 7.57%.

As a basic raw material, every substantial fluctuation of international oil price will have a significant impact on the whole polyester industry chain. However, the crude oil market plunged, but the polyester market remained quite calm.

In terms of PTA, on the 10 day, the 2009 main contract of PTA of Zhengshang company closed at 3576 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, or 0.28%.

In terms of ethylene glycol, on the 10 day, the 2005 contract of the main business of ethylene glycol in big business was closed at 3451 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, or 1.17%.

Polyester filament, boosted by last week's crude oil pull up, the price of polyester filament products at the beginning of the week was around 200-400 yuan or more. The price of polyester filament products remained stable for nearly two days.

　　 The polyester market runs counter to crude oil. Xiaobian thinks there are 2 possibilities.

01

Crude oil production reduction news overdraft

Since last week, the news of OPEC+'s production reduction has been flying everywhere. In April 2nd, the market suddenly announced that Russia and Saudi Arabia are expected to "shake hands" on the issue of reducing production. Affected by this news, the international oil price intraday suddenly pulled up sharply, WTI crude oil main contract rose 24.67%, Brent crude oil main contract increased 17.8%. The sharp rise in crude oil has driven the upward trend of the futures market. At the same time, the price of polyester products has increased by a large margin.

After that, crude oil fell sharply due to uncertainties in the conference on production cuts. The US Congressmen sent a letter to Saudi Arabia's crown prince, calling for a reduction in production and a surge in crude oil. Crude oil sits on the roller coaster, overproduction is excessive, polyester products are more stable.

02

Polyester products prices have bottomed out

The price of polyester products is no longer fluctuating with the crude oil market. One of the most important reasons is that polyester products prices have basically bottomed out, and there is no room for further reduction. Specifically, the price of PTA is currently around 3340 yuan / ton, and the price of MEG is currently around 3395 yuan / ton. In terms of polyester filament, the price of FDY 150D is about 5750 yuan / ton, the price of POY 150D is around 5225 yuan / ton, and the price of DTY 150D product is around 7000 yuan / ton.

Whether PTA, MEG or polyester filament, the price is almost the lowest level in the past 10 years. Even if the price of crude oil drops again, the space for itself to drop further is very small. In addition, the bull will also provide a price for their price at a certain point.

　　 Whether crude oil, polyester market or weaving Market, the most important factor for downhill is the severe shrinkage of demand at home and abroad, which is difficult to form an effective support for the market. Most textile personages are basically empty in the first half of the year, and the demand for recovery in the second half of the year is unknown. Under the uncertain future of textile industry, the most important thing is preservation. Of course, there is limitless possibility of survival.