Ethylene Glycol: First Quarter Slump Ended, Rebound Started In The Two Quarter

In the first quarter, the domestic ethylene glycol market has repeatedly refreshed its history, and how the market will be interpreted in the two quarter. We look back on the history and look forward to every aspect of the two quarter's market factors.

First, the price is refreshed.

The overall trend of the glycol market in the first quarter is ahead of the rest. In January, based on the slowing down of the cumulative accumulation of dock stocks on the basic level, the support prices rebounded before the start of the lower season, and the price rebounded strongly, up to 5470 yuan / ton. After entering the February, affected by domestic public health events, the double resistance of crude oil slump and downstream demand was raised. Ethylene glycol prices fell rapidly, and the lowest level fell to 2880 yuan / ton in late March. This price has broken down the historical low of 08 years' economic crisis, and the market price dropped by 47.34% in the first quarter.
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Secondly, the process of different profit differential amplification.

Domestic ethylene glycol process route diversification, the current domestic ethylene glycol total capacity of 13 million 981 thousand tons, of which the integrated process route accounted for 64.45%, crude oil fell profits - crude oil slump, closely downstream products naphtha, ethylene ethylene, ethylene glycol integration line to run smoothly.

At present, the domestic coal syngas production line accounts for 35.5% of the capacity. Looking back on the whole market in the first quarter, as the price of main raw materials is stable, the decline is mild, and the price of ethylene glycol has been cut down, which has reduced the cost advantage of the original coal processing technology and made a significant loss in the first quarter.

Third: terminal inventory accumulated upward.

In the first quarter, stocks rose straight from 365 thousand tons in the beginning to 1 million 50 thousand at the end of March, an increase of 187.67%. In the first quarter, the total import volume was 1 million 690 thousand tons in 1-2 months, and the total import remained stable. In March, the volume of cargo arriving at the terminal was concentrated. The monthly import volume is expected to increase to 900 thousand tons. The stable supply and the shrinking demand are the main reasons for the stock being exhausted all the time.

Fourth the potential for low start-up and high inventories in the downstream polyester industry continues.

The polyester industry started less than the same period in previous years. This year, the downstream polyester reemployment time is extended and the reemployment rate is slow. At present, the operating rate of the industry is 81% lower than that of 90% in the same period last year. Terminal demand is sluggish and production and marketing sluggish. Stock of polyester products has accumulated significantly, and the current weighted stock days are in 23-24 days. According to the product, polyester filament is about 35 days, staple fiber is 16 days, slicing is 8-9 days.

Fifth: imbalance between supply and demand in the first quarter.

Domestic supply has maintained steady growth in the first quarter, adding 2 million 950 thousand tons, and the new production capacity is mainly based on integrated refining and chemical plant, with an increase of 19-20 tons at the end of the month. The growth rate of polyester in the lower reaches has slowed down, and 2 sets of devices have been added in the first quarter - 850 thousand tons (equivalent to 24 thousand tons of ethylene glycol demand). From the perspective of supply and demand balance, 1-3 months, domestic ethylene glycol has maintained 250 thousand of the above.

For the coming April supply and demand, the supply side has no new release, and recently, affected by the device and profit, the load of domestic non integrated plant has been greatly reduced. At present, the overall operation of the domestic coal syngas route has moved to near 39%. The overhaul plan of some integrated devices is expected to overhaul and reduce load losses in April near 200 thousand tons.

And demand side, polyester has gone through the Qingming holiday price hike, the current polyester factory stock transfer pressure down, the mainstream stock of filament mill has dropped to 15 days near, short fiber factory inventory pressure has also eased significantly, superimposed the current crude oil production agreement help, the market overall mentality slightly better, based on the absolute value of the low price of ultra-low purchase again. As a result, the market rebounded at the beginning of the two quarter, but due to the fact that the order in the terminal weaving section has not been effectively improved, the market's rebound path remains high and time remains to be observed.