Comb The PTA Market "Three High" Status To See The Future Of The Market

In 2020, a rare 20 dollar / barrel crude oil really appeared, the impact of short-term economic lockout caused by superimposed event shocks, commodity prices down all the way, the price of some varieties fell to a historical low, and even more, PTA prices fell to a new low since the listing.

Market believes in cycle theory, and believes that extremes must be reversed. "Two yuan argument" tells us that in a price cycle and economic cycle, "optimism" and "pessimism" two psychological states must coexist. And transactions need to be judged at the same time in three dimensions: "time", "space" or even "emotion". Standing at the present time, it is difficult for everyone to judge whether the market is at the most pessimistic moment or the beginning of emotional catharsis. It seems that all persistence has lost its foundation in a moment. So what can we catch? Where is the opportunity?

At present, all countries are trying to fight against events, but before a viable vaccine appears, we can not tell when the incident is facing an inflection point. What we can grasp is the real situation of commodities. As one of the commodities, PTA is no exception. At present, the PTA market is facing high start-up, high inventory and high processing area. We can probably see some traces of the market in the future by combing such "three high".

Affected by the incident, global demand has shrunk sharply, crude oil has fallen to 20 US dollars / barrel, and has fallen the cost side of PTA. Especially since April, the processing area has been expanding, and with the end of many sets of device maintenance, the overall load of domestic PTA has increased by about 10 basis points. As of April 14th, the total domestic load is 90.46%. It is expected that 5-6 months will remain high.

From the end of 2019, with the decreasing seasonal demand of polyester, and the high PTA load, the PTA social inventory began to accumulate. After the festival, the demand for the stock decreased again and the social inventory continued to increase with the spread of domestic and international events. By the end of the deadline, the domestic stock of 3 million 238 thousand and 100 tons was nearly six years high, and the scissors difference between supply and demand remained at more than 10000 tonnes per day. In 5-6, social inventories increased to a high probability.

Beginning in the second half of 2019, the new PTA production cycle will start again. In 2020, there will be more than 10 million tons of new capacity, and the new production capacity of downstream polyester will not be enough. With the recent decline in the cost side, the PTA processing area has expanded to a relatively high level of nearly eight hundred yuan, which is somewhat unreasonable for the current market. It needs the market to suppress part of the processing area. When the industry begins to lose one end of the time, forcing some of the higher cost factories to stop will help the PTA market stabilize and rebound.

In view of the "three high" market, the spot market market has fallen again, and there is no support for supply and demand. From the perspective of the market, the market of chemical products has been rebounded at the beginning of this week. Combined with the current "three high" PTA, the market continues to see the bottom of the shock. It is recommended to insist on the right trading principle. During the period, the market will continue to rebound, and the TA09 contract will be around 3700 yuan, and TA05 will be in the first place. The new air bills near $3600 continue to hold (if there is a chance to continue to be effective until the end of April). The target is low and arbitrage, the basis is weakening. The spot traders are watching. The shipper is on a reasonable basis, and the amount of shipments is reasonable. The speculative arbitrage continues to pay close attention to the TA9-1 counter match opportunities (-100 is relatively safe and the target is near -200).