Rational Response To Current Cotton Price Rebound

Cotton prices rebounded in the near future. This week (April 13-17), the price of Xinjiang upland cotton was raised at 11500-12000 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of April. Although the purchase was not large due to the gradual reduction of orders, the data came into reality, and cotton prices appeared upward when the global epidemic did not recede.

One view is that it is too early to conclude that cotton prices hit bottom. After the Spring Festival, the cotton market has experienced two rounds of large downward prices. The first is the beginning of the nationwide anti epidemic epidemic stoppage. The main reason for its initiative to lower the price is the spontaneous behavior of the enterprises. The second is the outbreak of epidemics in many countries around the world, especially in Europe and America, where large quantities of Chinese textiles have been imported. It should be noted that cotton price adjustment is a normal market performance. People have been surprised by the phenomenon of "roller coaster" for many years.

At present, the epidemic still exists, the trend is very confused, and the future is very complicated. Is the change of cotton price "bottoming out"? It is too early to set the tone. Experts believe that the United States, Britain, France and other countries do have the intention of restoring economic activity at present, but the time is uncertain, the field is unknown, especially the door to open foreign trade has not yet been clearly stated, which is still waiting patiently for China's cotton textile foreign trade business. Obviously, the market consolidation after the outbreak is inevitable, and the conditions for reopening the post epidemic market between countries need to be seen in the market. What's more, any textile can only achieve the end of the whole circulation process only after the tangible consumption is realized. After the epidemic situation is hard to understand and the real consumption is deteriorating, it is obvious that it is too early to place too much hope on the consumer market restarted after the epidemic.

A simple rule of market economy is whether a piece of textile can be bought by consumers at the best price that a businessman thinks, which will have a direct impact on the production and operation of the upper and middle reaches of the textile. Now, quite a lot of analysis is that after the epidemic, the global economic callbacks are unavoidable, and the shrinkage of consumption will become a reality. Coupled with the sharp seasonal consumption characteristics, the quality and the price difference of textile products, the forecast for the next market will not seem to be high.

Another analysis is that after the Spring Festival this year, the two big cotton market prices fell, with the overestimation of the impact of the new crown epidemic on the market. The two cotton price downward, large and irrational, is not the true embodiment of the market price of cotton and the value of textile production and marketing, especially the strong impact of the plunge in the futures market on the market. The current rebound is a reflection of rational return to commodity value.

Some people believe that the new crown has reached the top of the epidemic. When the epidemic is down, it is the time when the market recovers. The uplink of cotton prices is now echoing the recovery of the market. Human existence, life must continue, and consumption naturally concomitant. Even if we do not choose high-end products, the popular goods will eventually have the necessary consumer groups. Therefore, the generation of cotton and product prices is bound to be between rational margins. This is also the bargaining chip of the interest chain shared by all the circulation businesses in the market, and it can embody its objective fairness as much as possible.

In short, the current epidemic situation is complicated. We should not be too pessimistic about the situation, nor can we ignore the essential attributes of nature and market. We should advocate rational, pragmatic and operable way of thinking and principles. The economic downturn and the contraction of consumption under the influence of the epidemic are affirmative, but the degree of judgement and expectation will be needed. Only observing and analyzing with the spirit of science is the magic weapon for precise policy implementation.