International Cotton Prices Rose Sharply, Vietnam'S Clothing Giant Plans To Let 50 Thousand Employees Take Leave.

I. market quotation

　　 1 domestic cotton keeps rising steadily

Last week, the historic "negative oil price" repeatedly disturbed the international commodity market, and domestic and foreign cotton futures rebounded after the fluctuations caused by negative oil prices. Near the May 1 holiday, enterprises in the lower reaches are not enthusiastic about buying and selling, and the price changes are not great in the domestic market. The national cotton price B index, representing mainland standard grade lint sales, was 11503, up 40 yuan / ton compared with April 17th, or 0.35%. The settlement price of Zhengzhou cotton futures contract was 11520 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with April 17th, or 0.88%.

2 international cotton prices rose sharply

Last week, the US Department of agriculture data showed that last week's net contract volume of US cotton exports shifted from negative to better than expected. News that China will increase imports of American cotton, ICE futures prices rose sharply. The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is 68.40 cents / pound. The price of RMB converted to RMB 1% yuan is 11875 yuan / ton, representing an increase of 700 yuan / ton, or 6.26%, compared with April 17th.

3 polyester staple prices have dropped sharply.

Last week, the US WTI crude oil futures fell historically below zero after the May contract delivery. The first "negative oil price" triggered a panic selling of chemical products, and the price of PET staple fell sharply. 1.4D part of the quotation is about 5800-6100 yuan / ton, real single negotiation or about 5600-5800 yuan / ton, a single talk. The market of Fujian polyester staple fiber is strong, and 1.4D talks about 5500-5550 yuan / ton. In April 24th, the polyester staple price index closed at 5700 yuan / ton, down 600 yuan / ton compared with April 17th, or 9.52%.

4 viscose staple prices are stable.

Last week, viscose staple fiber prices remained calm, downstream demand remained unchanged, replenishment in general, viscose manufacturers shipped mainly. At present, the price of medium and low viscose staple fiber is 8600-8800 yuan / ton, and the price of high-end viscose staple fiber is 9500-9800 yuan / ton. Viscose staple fiber price index for April 17th was 8600 yuan / ton, unchanged from April 10th price.

5 domestic and foreign yarns remain weak

Last week, the domestic downstream market remained depressed. With the May Day holiday approaching, some enterprises have cut down production phenomenon, the price of yarn is weak, and the fabric market is weak. The price of combed 32S pure cotton yarn is 19100~19200 yuan / ton, down 190 yuan / ton compared with last week, 30S cotton yarn 13000 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton last week, 32S polyester yarn price of 10100~10200 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of international cotton yarn has been slightly adjusted. The import cost of India and Vietnam 32S cotton yarn has dropped by 80 yuan / ton, and the conventional yarn is 816 yuan / ton higher than the domestic yarn.

Two, the operation of the industry

1 in the first quarter, the output of gauze fell by 20% over the same period last year.

China Cotton Textile Industry Association tracking enterprise data showed that yarn and cloth output increased by 113.27% and 90.57% respectively in March. In the first quarter, the yarn production and textile production decreased by 23.91% and 20.20% respectively. In March, the upstream and downstream industries of the industrial chain gradually recovered, and the enterprises resumed their work and resumed production. In addition, the output base was low in February, resulting in a significant increase in the production chain, but it did not return to the same period last year.

By the end of March, the utilization ratio of textile and weaving equipment was around 88%, which was 10 and 14 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. Among them, 77% of the enterprise spinning equipment utilization rate of more than 80%, accounting for 12 percentage points higher than last month; 80% of enterprises weaving equipment utilization rate of more than 80%, accounting for 2 percentage points higher than last month. It is understood that the production of masks increased gradually.

In March, sales of yarn and cloth increased by 143.56% and 108.55% respectively, and the monthly average price of all kinds of gauze products decreased in varying degrees. Judging from the decline, polyester yarn price is larger than pure cotton yarn and viscose yarn. By the end of March, the deficit of enterprises was 45.30%. In the first quarter, track business revenue decreased by 20.45% compared with the same period last year, of which 88% declined compared with the same period last year, and total profit decreased by 48.11% compared with the same period last year, of which 77% of the enterprises decreased year by year. As of the end of March, yarn inventory increased by 1.74%, and cloth inventory increased by 2.96%. Since late March, production has begun to show signs of slowing down. In order to maintain operation, enterprises have to increase the production of regular products, and the pressure of inventory has intensified.

23 months imported 200 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 33.3% over the same period, 190 thousand tons of imported cotton yarn.

According to statistics, China imported 190 thousand tons of cotton yarn in March 2020, unchanged from the same period last year. Since 2019/20 (2019.9-2020.3), China has imported 1 million 120 thousand tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 0.9% over the same period last year.

In March 2020, China imported 200 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 33.3% over the same period last year. In 2019 1-3, China imported 610 thousand tons of cotton, a decrease of 7.6% compared with the same period last year. Since 2019/20 (2019.9-2020.3), China has imported 1 million 20 thousand tons of cotton, a decrease of 19% over the same period last year.

3 decline in yarn prices, profits gradually restored

In late April, the epidemic situation in foreign countries is still developing, and the yarn market is still weak. The overall price of pure cotton yarn is still downward trend, but the decline is obviously slower than that in March. As of April 23rd, the domestic C32S average price closed at 19130 yuan / ton, a decrease of 88 yuan / ton compared with last week. Compared to the decline of nearly 1000 yuan in March, the average C32S price in China has dropped by only 392 yuan / ton since April. The slowdown in cotton yarn prices is partly due to a rebound in cotton prices in April. But in terms of starting up, there are already some textile companies that have cut production because of rising inventories. As of April 23rd, China's yarn load index was 50.4%, down 1.2 percentage points from last week. However, the stock of spinning enterprises increased to about 29 days. Because foreign trade orders are basically cancelled, many foreign trade enterprises are turning to domestic sales, and domestic orders appear to be in hot demand. Some enterprises say that textile enterprises are willing to make substantial reductions in order to rush orders. Even so, most spinning enterprises say it is difficult to get orders, and raw materials purchase is also bought with orders, and they dare not hoard goods. After April, the price decline of pure cotton yarn has slowed down, and with the gradual digestion of the high priced cotton in the early stage, the actual profit level of textile enterprises will be gradually restored.

4 the price of India Pakistan cotton yarn has dropped sharply.

At present, some cotton mills in India can resume production, but due to insufficient employment, the start-up rate is relatively low. Yarn prices are still falling due to slump in demand, and cotton and yarn prices will fall further after production is resumed.

Recent surveys show that prices of most yarn varieties in India continue to fall by 2-3 rupees / kg. 30 cotton yarn dropped 1.5%, 40 combed yarn dropped 1.3%.

In recent weeks, the price of cotton yarn has dropped sharply in Pakistan, and business activities have begun to recover slowly. However, the demand for yarn remains unchanged after the lifting of the national ban, and domestic and export prices continue to bear pressure. In the week, 30 of Pakistan's combed yarn dropped by nearly 10%, and the demand of downstream enterprises was very weak, so the start-up rate of the cotton mill decreased significantly. As the demand for downstream weaving and garment enterprises is greatly reduced, the price of yarn may further decline in the future.

5 US cotton export weekly report: Net signing from negative to positive volume continues to decrease.

The US Department of agriculture report shows that on April 2020 10-16, the net contracted volume of US cotton in the 2019/20 year was 3560 tons, a significant increase from the previous week, which was 73% lower than that of the previous four weeks. The new signing came mainly from Vietnam (5897 tons), Pakistan (1542 tons), China (1043 tons), South Korea (884 tons) and Bangladesh (612 tons). The abolition of the contract is mainly in Mexico (3606 tons), Indonesia (2290 tons), Egypt (499 tons) and Taiwan, China (295 tons).

In the US 2020/21, the net export volume of mainland cotton was 10 thousand and 500 tons, and the buyers were Mexico (3629 tons), Indonesia (2086 tons), Pakistan (1996 tons), Bangladesh (907 tons) and Turkey (748 tons).

The US 2019/20 cotton shipments were 60 thousand and 400 tonnes, 15% less than the previous week, 33% less than that of the previous four weeks, mainly shipped to Vietnam (19 thousand and 700 tons), Pakistan (9185 tons), Turkey (9072 tons), China (6985 tons) and Bangladesh (3810 tons).

Three. Industry policies and trends

1 the United States released the twelfth batches of the $200 billion tax collection list.

In April 22, 2020, the United States Trade Representative Office (USTR) announced the twelfth batch of product exclusionary announcements under the list of $200 billion plus tariff products, adding 108 items to exclude products, and revising 1 historical excluded product descriptions, involving 1 textile products tax numbers.

Up to now, there are 11 batches of textile products in the 12 batch of US $200 billion tax collection, involving 48 textile tax numbers. The products being excluded will no longer be subject to 301 tariff when exported to the United States. Exclusion period can be traced back to the date of entry into force of the 200 billion list - September 24, 2018. The validity of the excluded products listed in this notice is from September 24, 2018 to August 7, 2020.

The textile description and HS code excluded are as follows:

1.6507.00.0000: the hat band of the football helmet, each with a polyvinyl chloride wrapped polyester woven fabric ribbon, a closed foam foam liner and a stainless steel buckle.

2.6507.00.0000: the front and side cushions of the football helmets. The top and bottom of each helmet are covered with vinyl, PVC foam, closed foam foam pad and stainless steel buckle.

2 the Ministry of Commerce and other three departments: further strengthen the supervision of the export quality of epidemic prevention materials.

In the special period of global epidemics, in order to more effectively support the international community in coping with the global public health crisis, the measures to further strengthen the quality control of epidemic prevention materials and standardize export order are announced as follows:

First, strengthen the supervision of the export quality of non medical masks. Since April 26th, the export of non medical masks should be in line with Chinese quality standards or foreign quality standards.

When exporting the non medical masks export enterprises, the exporters and importers shall jointly declare the products in conformity with the Chinese quality standards or the foreign quality standards. The importers shall accept the quality standards of the purchased products and do not use them for medical purposes. The customs shall, according to the list of enterprises provided by the Ministry of Commerce, examine the release of the products, and do not accept the Customs within the list of enterprises provided by the General Administration of market supervision. Declare and check.

Two, further standardize the export order of medical materials. Since April 26th, export products of new coronavirus reagents, medical masks, medical protective clothing, respirators and infrared thermometers which have been certified or registered by foreign countries must be submitted for declaration. They must submit written declarations, which promise products to meet the quality standards and safety requirements of the importing countries (regions). Single check release.

3 Vietnam clothing giant plans to allow 50 thousand employees to take temporary leave.

According to the latest report of Nikkei in April 24th, Vietnam's largest state-owned garment enterprise, Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex), is discussing a maximum of 50 thousand employees taking temporary leave. It is understood that despite the resumption of procurement of Chinese fabrics, the epidemic in Europe and America is serious, resulting in a sharp decline in clothing demand. Many Vietnamese garment enterprises either cancel orders or stop directly. Data show that this year, from 4 to May, the order volume of footwear products will drop by at least 70% compared with the same period last year. According to Vinatex, even if the epidemic subsided before May, the loss of the enterprise was close to 1 trillion dong dong (about 310 million yuan), which was 200% of last year's net profit.

4 Yida textile will close 4 factories one after another.

In April 20, 2020, Yida textile official website issued an important notice. The outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus has created an unprecedented perfect storm for the supply chain of the global textile and garment industry. In order to control the spread of the epidemic, many countries have forced shops to close, and economic activities are close to a standstill, and the retail industry has almost stagnated. These measures also made the Yida group upstream of the textile and garment supply chain suffer unprecedented impact.

The company decided to close the following factories by the end of July this year:

In April 30th of 1.2020, we closed the factories in Fenghua.

In June 12th of 2.2020, Malaysia was closed to two factories in Penang and Kelantan.

In July 31st 3.2020, Mauritius was closed to the factory at flake.

5 Guang'an, Sichuan, hand in hand with Zhejiang to sign the first chemical fiber industry project

In April 21st, Sichuan Guang'an economic development zone and Zhejiang Jixing Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. from Huzhou, Zhejiang, successfully signed an annual production of 600 thousand tons of functional differential fiber new material intelligent production project, which is Guang'an's successful introduction of the first chemical fiber industry project from Zhejiang, also opened the Zhejiang chemical fiber industry to the Guang'an industry transfer prelude.

Annual output of 600 thousand tons of functional differential fiber new intelligent production project total investment of 3 billion 500 million yuan, organized by Zhejiang Jixing Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., Yangzhou Pu Li Technology Development Co., Ltd., Sichuan Renshou golden goose Textile Co., Ltd. invested and constructed, covering an area of about 600 acres, will build an annual output of 600 thousand tons of functional differential fiber new material production line and supporting projects, all projects completed and put into operation. After that, the annual output value will reach more than 6 billion yuan, and the annual tax rate will be more than 300 million yuan. Among them, the first phase of the investment is about 2 billion yuan, covering an area of 300 mu. The construction of new functional material differential fiber production line and supporting project with an annual output of 300 thousand tons is mainly planned. The project is scheduled to start in September 2020. It is expected to be put into operation in March 2022. After the first phase of construction and operation, it is expected to achieve an annual output value of more than 3 billion yuan and an annual tax payment of more than 150 million yuan.

Four, EIA crude oil stocks surged crude oil shocks

　　 At the beginning of the week, the US oil contract in May fell 171.7%, to -13.1 U.S. dollars / barrel, the intraday drop was over 300%. The reason why the US oil fell to the negative is mainly that the available inventory will be filled in the short term. In mid week, EIA crude oil inventories increased by 1502.2 barrels during the week of April 17th to the highest level since May 2017. The increase in the EIA crude oil inventories highlights the tight stock pressure faced by the oil market, and gasoline demand has dropped to a record low, while overall imports have fallen to a new low since 1992.

The API inventory released last week also recorded an increase of 13 million 200 thousand barrels to 500 million barrels. API crude oil inventory data showed that US crude oil inventories recorded an increase for 13 consecutive weeks. The sharp rise in stock prices has brought downward pressure on crude oil prices, while crude oil production is also running at the same time. On the good news, Nouchine, the US Treasury Secretary, said the Trump administration is studying different plans to support us oil producers. It is expected that oil prices will rise to $30 / barrel in August, and will provide direct support to the economy for us $2 trillion and 600 billion and increase US $4 trillion through the Federal Reserve.

On the whole, although oil prices are at a historical low level, they will still be affected by the emotional disturbance and the epidemic situation. They will not rule out the possibility of short-term fluctuations.

Five, risk aversion is pushing up the US dollar's slight depreciation.

　　 Last week, the US dollar index went up slightly, although the new economic data showed poor performance, but compared with the euro area and the UK's economic performance is more weak. This week, the price of crude oil futures has dropped to an unprecedented level, leading to a rise in market risk aversion. The renminbi suffered a slight decline from the US dollar index, which recorded a 7.09055 on Friday. In the short term, the RMB exchange rate volatility is expected to narrow and will oscillate within the 7.04-7.11 range.

The main reasons are: first, the current global new crown pneumonia epidemic is still in the diffusion, there is no signs of relaxation, market risk aversion is easy to repeat; two, in the short term, the RMB will continue to be affected by the trend of US dollar index. Although the Fed continues to inject liquidity into the US dollar index with various monetary policy instruments, the dollar index will remain at a high level, considering that the risk aversion demand caused by the collapse of crude oil futures prices has not yet cooled completely. Three, recently, foreign capital holdings have shown signs of warming RMB assets, giving certain support to the RMB exchange rate.