The Contradiction Between Supply And Demand Is Still Grim. It Is Hard To Change The PTA Price In May.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic PTA spot market in April showed a trend of "N". As of April 29th, the market average price was 3268 yuan / ton, up 2.54% from the beginning of the month, down 50.71% from the same period last year. In the beginning of the month, the oil price dropped sharply, and the international oil price rose sharply. PTA was in the mood of bottom hunting. The spot market was trading at a big volume. The price rebounded obviously, and the 10 day increased by 8.33%. With the pressure of crude oil storage and its continuous high maintenance, the price dropped, and the average price of the 22 day was 3068 yuan / ton, which has reached a low level in the past ten years. At the end of the month, the price of the lower reaches of the holiday is appropriately replenishing, and polyester production and marketing are warming up. PTA prices have risen slightly.

In March, due to the weakening of domestic demand, the pressure of PTA factory inventory was large, and domestic PTA production enterprises were overhauling and shutting down production. In the 3 half of the month, the PTA operating rate dropped to 69%. With the end of the inspection period and the weakening of crude oil, the higher the chemical products near the upper reaches, the higher the PTA processing fee to 805 yuan / ton under the profit of naphtha and PX. At such a high level of processing fees, the PTA factory's production enthusiasm is very high, which has led to the recent PTA operating rate has been above 90% level, significantly higher than the same period in previous years. At the same time, demand side has not been significantly improved, so the whole PTA in April is still obviously in the storehouse. As of April 26th, the social inventory of PTA in April is as high as 3 million 484 thousand and 900 tons. It is also necessary to note that with the commissioning of new devices, the domestic PTA capacity has reached 52 million 255 thousand tons, and the PTA capacity in 2020 is significantly higher than the capacity base in previous years, so the overall market supply pressure is very large.

　　 Recent changes in PTA device statistics

Raw materials terminal, crude oil production in early April, and the bottom PTA, April 20th crude oil market witnessed the epic crash, the United States WTI crude oil prices in May for the first time in the history of the contract fell to a negative value, closed at $-37.63 per barrel, or 306%, hitting a record low of 40.32 dollars per barrel. The collapse of the crude oil market has frustrated the mood of the market and reduced the global demand for crude oil. The supply side is still increasing. Under the pressure of storage capacity, the market fundamentals remain weak. PX domestic PX ex factory price trend temporarily stabilized at 4300 yuan / ton, down 43.51% compared to the same period.

　　 Polyester market average price rise and fall, unit: yuan / ton

The price trend of downstream polyester market is basically consistent with that of PTA. At present, the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are reporting polyester POY150D/48F at 4900-5050 yuan / ton, polyester DTY150D/48F low bombs at 6400-6900 yuan / ton, and polyester FDY150D/96F at 5500-5650 yuan / ton. In the beginning of the month, affected by the news of crude oil cooperation and production reduction, the raw materials market was strongly supported, and the market speculative speculative replenishment market appeared. Polyester filament products sold volume and prices rebounded slightly, but with the weakening of raw materials and weak demand, the market turnover atmosphere cooled down. In the near future, the downstream prices are appropriately replenishing, and some conventional fabrics such as terminal polyester polyester taffeta, spring sub spinning and so on are very hot due to the demand for protection, which will drive the demand for polyester filament to a certain extent, so the price of polyester filament is slightly warmer. The polyester staple market started a rapid rise in April, but the market remained weak for a long time, and the market declined rapidly along with the sharp cooling of the non-woven products and the continued weakness of the traditional spinning industry.

From the perspective of terminal textile industry, the overall industry is in a slump. At present, the volume of light textile city is obviously lower than the same level in recent years, and the market is light. From the start up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, as of April 28th, the overall starting rate was 51%. In the face of the upcoming May 1 holiday, the intention of the May day suspension was gradually increasing. At the same time, affected by this public health event, the export orders for weaving were cancelled or postponed in large quantities. In the first quarter of 2020, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China amounted to US $45 billion 260 million, down 17.7% from the same period last year, of which 22 billion 690 million US dollars in textile exports, 14.6% in the same period last year, and 22 billion 570 million US dollars in clothing exports, down 20.6% over the same period last year.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, thinks that there are not many devices to repair the PTA in May. At present, the PTA load remains high, the supply pressure is still maintained, and the downstream polyester load continues to increase. The pressure of PTA continues to accumulate, and PTA has not seen the turning point. It is estimated that the PTA social inventory will remain at a high level in the latter part of the society. In the 5-6 month, PTA social inventory will not exclude a high value of 4 million tons. Lack of foreign trade orders in downstream weaving enterprises, domestic demand has not yet fully recovered, and near the May 1 holiday, some weaving enterprises have planned to suspend work and leave early. The contradiction between supply and demand is still grim. It is estimated that the PTA price will not change to the disadvantage in May.