How Long Is The Global Economy From Recovery?

Previously, the new crown pneumonia epidemic continued to spread rapidly in the world. In order to contain the epidemic, multinational governments continued to upgrade epidemic prevention and control through measures such as "outage", "holiday", "banned" or even "sealing the country". However, with the mitigation of the new crown disease, many countries began to "unseal" gradually and orderly. In this post epidemic period, countries will reopen the economy devastated by the outbreak in addition to easing control and orderly resuming production and living order, and the global economy is expected to usher in a new recovery.

Us: plan to withdraw restrictions from May 15th

Since the outbreak of the outbreak in the United States, the US government has asked the public to increase their social distance, and the state has promulgated the "home ownership order". Most enterprises stop production and stop production. Affected by this, consumer demand has slumped, investment spending has been sluggish, and the US economy has shrunk. Data released by the US Commerce Department showed that the US economy fell by 4.8% in the first quarter of this year, the biggest decline since the financial crisis.

At the same time, the labor market in the United States has also been seriously affected. According to the data released by the US labor department in April 30th, the number of initial jobless claims reached 3 million 839 thousand in the week ending April 25th, higher than the 3 million 500 thousand expected by the market. Trump has been increasingly frustrated by the economic recession triggered by the outbreak, which has led to over 30 million Americans' unemployment and threatening their re-election prospects. The United States is the world's largest new crown epidemic center. Up to now, more than 1 million 220 thousand people have been infected and more than 70 thousand people have died.

In response, President Trump is eager to promote the lifting of the economy. He said on Tuesday that Americans should start returning to normal life as soon as possible, even though more Americans are infected with the new crown virus or even die. It is understood that some parts of the United States plan to withdraw the epidemic restrictions starting in May 15th. The first stage will start construction industry, manufacturing industry and retail industry, and will finally restart the school and entertainment industry.

Italy: officially entered the second stage of epidemic prevention in May 4th

According to the latest data released by the Civil Protection Department of Italy, 1389 new confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia were found in Italy, 174 new deaths, 213013 cumulative cases and 29315 cumulative deaths. Italy's civil protection department said it was the least death day since March 10th, and the number of new cases increased from 1900 in May 2nd to 1389 in a single day.

Since May 4th, about 4 million 400 thousand people in Italy have been allowed to resume work, marking the second stage of Italy's entry into the epidemic and the resumption of economic parallel. The resumption of work in various industries will start gradually at two weeks intervals, but schools of all kinds will remain closed. This means that the national "closed city" measures will end on the evening of May 3rd. The Italy government reminded people to pay more attention to maintaining social distance and to maximize personal hygiene protection.

In addition, Francesco Boca, Minister of regional and regional affairs of Italy on 6 may, said that the reopening time that originally planned to reopen in June 1st (restaurants, coffee bars and barber shops, etc.) may be ahead of schedule. According to the original plan, retail shops and museums can start business on 18, and restaurants, coffee bars and barber shops will have to wait for June 1st to resume business.

Russia: intends to gradually lift restrictions on epidemic situation

On the 6 day of the local time, Russian President Putin held a video conference with the heads of relevant departments of the Russian government and the local governor. Russia will gradually lift the restrictive measures in three stages.

At present, the number of newly diagnosed cases in Russia has been increased for more than 10 thousand consecutive days in four days. Russian Prime Minister Mi Shug J Gin, who had previously confirmed the infection of the new crown virus, did not attend the video conference that day. Putin said that his condition is improving.

South Korea gradually open public facilities from 6

Local time, 3, South Korean Prime Minister Ding Shijun said that in view of the low incidence of the Korean epidemic and the epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, the South Korean government decided to change the Korean epidemic prevention strategy from 6 to "life epidemic prevention". The various facilities that had been suspended before the executive order of the government had been gradually opened up, and the primary and secondary schools will gradually resume normal teaching as the case progressively.

Iran's low risk zone will open mosques and schools.

According to Iran media 3 reported that Iran President Rouhani said on the same day that in the past 24 hours, 300 people in Iran were hospitalized for new crown pneumonia. There are altogether 132 white cities (low risk areas) in Iran. Rouhani announced that the mosques in these cities will be reopened on 4, and the school will start on 16.

Portugal enters "disaster state"

Portuguese Prime Minister Costa recently announced the end of the state emergency, 3 days into the "disaster state", and three steps to restart economic and social activities.

• On the 4 day, all shops and street shops within 200 square meters, including bookstores, barber shops, shoe shops and clothing stores, were reopened, and the public service system was resumed, except for the city hall which concentrates on business.
• On the 18 day, after resuming classes in high schools, shops, cafes and restaurants within 400 square meters were reopened.
• Since June 1st, all shops and shopping centers have been opened, but the number of visitors has been reduced by half, and the public must maintain a social distance of 2 meters.

Some federal states relax restrictions on epidemic prevention in Germany

4 days from the local time, some federal states in Germany will take the lead in relaxing a series of epidemic prevention prohibitions. Among them, Isaacson - Ann Halter became Germany's first area to relax contact restrictions. According to the German federal government, it is forbidden to gather more than two members of non family members in public places, and the Isaacson - harhart state now relaxes this restriction to 5. At the same time, the state of Sarah also announced that the largest number of two people could be allowed to Party and visit friends.

Serbia lifted state of emergency

On the evening of 6 local time, the Serbia National Assembly voted to lift the state of emergency, that is, no curfew was imposed from 7, but the relevant epidemic prevention and control measures were still retained.

The sustainability of the global economy is facing difficulties and challenges, and there are still multiple obstacles to recovery.

Despite the fact that a large wave of countries has come to "unseal" and entered the parallel stage of epidemic prevention and economic recovery, there are still a large number of enterprises in the territory being ordered to close. During the epidemic prevention and control period, the vast majority of enterprises were hit hard, and all walks of life were affected.

Some experts have predicted that the impact of the outbreak on the economic contraction will be 3 times the global financial crisis in 2008. According to the latest global economic survey released in April 2020 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), due to the new crown virus pandemic, the global economy is expected to shrink by 3% in 2020, which is much more serious than the financial crisis from 2008 to 2009.

According to statistics, the US GDP growth rate was negative in the 1 quarter. In April, the PMI index of manufacturing and non manufacturing industries in the US, EU, Japan and South Korea was still downward. As of April 28th, the United States has accumulated more than 30 million unemployed people, and the future consumption of the United States will be in recession. The industry said that the developed countries are mainly consumption driven production, in the state of declining consumption, production is difficult to pick up, global orders will be reduced, and the world is already in recession.