"Retaliatory Consumption" Has Not Yet Reached The Peak Of The Professional Market In April.

The prosperity monitoring results of China Textile and textile circulation branch show that in April 2020, the national textile and garment professional market managers' prosperity index was 50.59, down 0.65 percentage points from 51.24 in March, and the professional market business climate index was 48.92, down 2.26 percentage points from 51.18 in March.

First, Management boom and business downturn

Data show that in April, the textile and garment professional market managers and business climate index has dropped.

1, the manager's prosperity index has dropped by 0.65 percentage points.

Chart 1 list of managers' indices

Data source: Statistics of China Textile Federation circulation branch

From the manager's prosperity index, in April, the manager's prosperity index was 50.59, down 0.65 percentage points from 51.24 in March, and the operating environment index was 48.71, up 0.65 percentage points from 48.06 in March.

The total operating index of the sub index is 50.97, which is 0.32 percentage points lower than that of 51.29 in March; the logistics delivery volume index is 50.97, which is 0.32 percentage points lower than that of March; the passenger flow index is 51.29, which is equal to March; the opening rate index is 51.94, which is 1.29 percentage points lower than that of March; the rental index is 47.42, which is reduced by 1.29 percentage points over the March's index; and the electricity supplier sales index is 51.29. It was 50.97, down 0.97 percentage points from 51.94 in March.

2, the business climate index has dropped by 2.26 percentage points.

Chart 2 list of merchant indices

Data source: Statistics of China Textile Federation circulation branch

From the business climate index, the business climate index in April is 48.92, down 2.26 percentage points from 51.18 in March, and the operating environment index is 47.55, which is 1.12 percentage points higher than that in March.

In the sub index, the sales volume index was 47.76, down 5.60 percentage points from 53.36 in March; the average selling price index was 46.57, which was 4.55 percentage points lower than that of March; the profit index was 47.69, which was 5.60 percentage points lower than that of March; the composite cost index was 50.07, an increase of 50.07 percentage points over that of March; the stock index was 50.07, up by a percentage point over that of March. The electricity supplier sales index was 50.14, down 0.28 percentage points from 50.42 in March.

Two. Data analysis

1, the professional market has basically been resumed, and retaliatory consumption has not yet reached.

In April, the proportion of total market share was 38.71%, an increase of 9.68 percentage points from 29.03% in March, and the proportion of logistics delivery was 38.71%, an increase of 9.68 percentage points compared with that in March. The proportion of passengers who choose to maintain the same flow rate is 35.48%, which is 6.45 percentage points higher than that in March, and the ratio of choosing business to open rate is 41.94%, which is higher than 16.13 in March. A percentage point.

In March, on the basis of relatively abnormal data in 1-2 months, the economic recovery increased greatly. In April, the market share of total business volume, logistics delivery volume, passenger flow rate and opening rate in March was larger than that in March. In April, the national market basically achieved full recovery. However, the sales situation was not significantly different from that in March. Period.

2, merchant cost index and stock index rise.

In April, the composite cost index of the merchant was 50.07, an increase of 1.40 percentage points from 48.67 in March, an inventory index of 51.26, an increase of 1.05 percentage points over that of March. In March, most of the businesses returned to normal stall operations, and the cost pressure and stock pressure increased and the index declined; in April, merchants gradually adapted to the entity operation mode under the normalization of epidemic prevention work, along with the new installation. With the promotion of listing and various promotional activities, the overall cost and pressure of inventory and inventory pressure have been alleviated.

Three, the forecast index declined, and the market and business confidence recurred.

Data show that managers, the next management boom index is 48.71, down 1.94 percentage points from 50.65 in March; the next operating environment index is 49.03, down 50 percentage points from March's 0.97 percentage points. In terms of business, the next business climate index is 47.69, up 0.28 percentage points from 47.41 in March, and the operating environment index for the next period is 47.69, up 0.28 percentage points from 47.41 in March. In terms of the prediction index, the four prediction indicators of managers and merchants return to below 50. The result shows that after nearly a month's return to work, market managers and merchants are not as optimistic as expected, and the retaliatory consumption boom has not yet reached the level of confidence in the industry.