The Internal And External Price Spreads From Negative To Positive. The Foreign Trade Market Is Breaking The Ice (11-15 May 2020).

First, the spot price of cotton yarn narrowed, narrowing the price of futures and increasing the price.

This week, domestic yarn spot prices continued to down and refresh the new low in the year. The national cotton market monitoring system yarn index CNCotton C32S average price 18771 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 91 yuan / ton, yarn cotton price difference of 7338 yuan / ton, compared with last week reduced 122 yuan / ton; cotton yarn futures clearing average price 18899 yuan / ton, compared with last week rose 237 yuan / ton, higher than spot 128 yuan / ton, the price difference increased last week 328 yuan / ton.

Data show that more representative cotton fabric 63 "40*40 133*72 average price" stabilized in early May, a week after the week, the average price fell 0.02 yuan / m to 8.16 yuan / m, refresh 2020 new low in the year.

Two, the price of international cotton yarn has dropped sharply, narrowed the price inside and outside, or even changed.

(1) 32 cotton yarn

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 18900 yuan / ton, down 773 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price difference between China and India [1] [1] expanded 683 yuan / ton to -129 yuan / ton compared with last week; the average price of Vietnam port delivery was 18740 yuan / ton, which was 667 yuan / ton lower than last week, and the price difference between China and Vietnam changed from negative to positive, expanding 576 yuan / ton to 31 yuan / ton last week.

(two) 21 cotton yarn

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 17900 yuan / ton, down 970 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price difference between China and India increased by 647 yuan / ton to -30 yuan / ton last week. The average delivery price of Pakistan port was 17590 yuan / ton, down 820 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference between China and Pakistan changed from negative to positive, expanding 497 yuan / ton to 280 yuan / ton last week.

(three) 10 rotor spinning

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 12406 yuan / ton, down 97 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference between China and India increased by 68 yuan / ton to -517 yuan / ton last week.

In recent weeks, yarn prices continued to drop in India. This year, cotton consumption in India is expected to decrease by 15%, while cotton production will increase. The price of cotton and yarn will continue to fall under pressure in the later stage. The yarn production of Pakistan's domestic cotton mill has resumed after resuming work, but the yarn turnover is very low, and the seller's pressure to reduce the quoted price is very great.

Three, prices of chemical fibers are rising and falling.

This week, the national cotton market monitoring system chemical fiber index, CNCotton PS (1.4D direct spinning polyester short) average price of 5630 yuan / ton, compared with last week rose 37 yuan / ton, cotton polyester price difference narrowed 6 yuan / ton to 5803 yuan / ton last week; CNCotton VS (mainstream viscose staple fiber) average price 8500 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 33 yuan / ton, cotton sticky price difference increased last week 64 yuan / ton to 2933 yuan / ton.

Four, outlook for the future

1, yarn and cloth production and sales rate increased, product inventory reduced.

It is understood that at present, most of the textile enterprises are small orders, and they are still mainly going to stock. The export of cotton yarn is improving, though the volume is not large, but the overall improvement is better than that in the early stage. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, in early May, the yarn production and sales rate of the enterprises surveyed was 85.2%, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous month, the inventory was 30 days, and the sales volume was reduced by 3.8 days; the production and sales rate of the cloth was 83.4%, up 1.4 percentage points, and the inventory was 48.8 days sales, reducing 5.4 days.

2, foreign trade market "ice breaking" knitting enterprises "warming up"

Many orders have been cancelled or delayed this year due to the outbreak of the epidemic. However, at present, 34 countries around the world have been unsealed. As more and more countries open up and open ports, many of the original goods that have been transported by the sea have arrived at the port of destination successfully, and some foreign trade enterprises have received orders for autumn and winter clothing, and the foreign trade market seems to be improving.

At the same time, knitted products manufacturers have begun to bustle about. With the export mode changed from air to sea, the orders for the earlier part of the shipment have been shipped. Meanwhile, some enterprises have begun to "share" orders, and the group has been heating up to jointly complete the export list.

3, the risk of uncertainty is still new crown virus or never disappear.

Although at present, with the effective prevention and control of domestic epidemic and the gradual recovery of the economy, the risk of epidemic uncertainty still exists. According to statistics released by Johns Hopkins University, there are more than 4 million 700 thousand confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world. WHO's emergency project leader said the new crown virus may become a long-term problem, and it is hard to predict when the virus will be defeated. It may become an epidemic virus that will never disappear.

4, cotton textile industry purchasing managers index (PMI) sub index good.

Comparing the data of purchasing managers' index (PMI) for 1-4 years in cotton textile industry in recent 3 years, although the market in 2020 was not as good as that in 2018, some of the sub items were better than those in the same period in 2019. Data show that in 2020 1-4, cotton spinning industry PMI new order, boot rate and cotton inventory three average is higher than the same period last year, production and cotton yarn inventory average are lower than the same period last year (see below).

　　 5, "six stability" and "six guarantees" need to be vigilant against the impact of high inventory on the market next year.

The global epidemic is spreading, and the demand for the international market has dropped dramatically. China's foreign trade faces unprecedented challenges this year. The Ministry of Commerce said it would do its best to stabilize foreign trade in accordance with the requirements of the Central Committee's "six guarantees" and "six guarantees". First, to help enterprises tide over difficulties; second, to optimize the layout of the international market; and third, to cultivate a new mode of trade.

With the recovery of economic activities, the downstream market shows some warmth. However, the market of "double cold days" in textile market is short or difficult to change. On the one hand, the epidemic of domestic products and exports of epidemic prevention products; on the other hand, the "frozen time" of traditional products manufacturers. In the case of insufficient market demand at home and abroad, the existing textile mills declared bankruptcy. In the later stage, we should be vigilant against the weakness of textile and clothing consumption and the high inventory caused by the epidemic, and the impact on the spinning enterprises.

The price difference in [1] is the difference between domestic yarn price and foreign yarn price.