PTA Device Parking Market Impact Geometry

Yesterday night, Hon Bang petrochemical Two hundred and twenty Ten thousand tons PTA Temporary parking to boost the market. PTA Now the market sentiment is up again, the price is leading the chemical increase, as of noon, the disk. TA09 Contract rise One hundred and six element / Ton or increase 3.01% The spot basis is strong. 30-35 element / Ton, Five Port of destination 09-140 element / Tons, delivery 09 Premium 145-155 , Six Monthly main port source report 09 Premium 120-130 Submit 09 Premium One hundred and forty Some factories continue to buy back cash. 09 Premium One hundred and twenty Morning 09 Premium One hundred and twenty There were more deals, and the atmosphere in the market was good. What is the continuity of good atmosphere? Boost the growth rate? A brief analysis.

High inventory or difficult to mitigate HP Petrochemical total capacity Two hundred and ninety Ten thousand tons / In the early years Seventy Million tons of small capacity has been stopped, night Two hundred and twenty Ten thousand tons / The major installations of the year were stopped, and preliminary parking is expected. Twenty God. PTA Domestic effective capacity base is Five thousand two hundred and thirty-nine 000 tons, the capacity is in proportion. 5.54% 。 At present PTA And polyester load prediction, after the device is stopped, early stage PTA The speed of continuous storage is almost over, and supply and demand are in equilibrium. Estimate Five Month's overall warehouse decline Twenty Near 2000 000 tons, the expected data in the first half of the year were down roughly. Ten Ten thousand tons. Until the deadline, the domestic stock reaches Three hundred and sixty-five point nine six In the vicinity of 10000 tons, Hon Bang's parking effect narrowed to the scissors difference between supply and demand. Zero point one six Ten thousand tons. Later inventory expectations: expected Six Monthly constant force 5#250 Ten thousand tons of capacity will be put into operation. PTA Gao Kaigong ( 90% Nearby, polyester recovery limited (start up) 88% In the vicinity, PTA Ample supply and high inventory will continue.

Profits remain high: As the cost side slipped, PTA The processing area has been keeping good. Four Since October, the highest level has been expanded to nearly eight hundred yuan. Seven hundred and fifty element / Near the tonne, the high processing zone also stimulated production enterprises to start at a high level. PTA Routine maintenance of production enterprises is still relatively small, installation starts to remain high, and domestic overall load will remain high.

Short term crude oil or under pressure With the support of supply exceeding expectations and the demand for better support, oil prices are fast gaining strength, but on the one hand, the global oil storage is still high, so we need to go to the warehouse to drag oil refining profits. In addition, the impact of the epidemic on the demand side does exist, even if it is restored, it is not easy to recover immediately before the outbreak. API Data showed that the US crude oil inventories fell more than market expectations, while oil products storage exceeded expectations, and oil prices were lingering. Data show shale oil. 30-35 There will be corporate profits, technically. Three The gap in the first half of the month is also being tested. In the context of unstable demand, we should pay attention to the repeated shocks of oil prices in the short term. We should pay attention to the test on the upper border and wait for the new supply and demand data to verify. In the long term (quarterly annual cycle), the bottom is clear because supply and demand are improving, bottoms are known and vaccine progress is being made.

Sum up In the short term, the cost and the Hon Bang device will stop and lift. TA09 Breach Three thousand and seven hundred element / Tons of front line pressure, but the current major contradiction, high inventory and high processing fees have not been fundamentally solved, and the continued rise in the market is still under pressure. PTA The contradiction between the industry will be transformed into the contradiction between the expected improvement of demand and the inventory digestion. TA If the processing area is compressed, the industry will turn to a good cycle. Han Bang parking impact, disk pressure upward shift, suggested short cycle concerns 09 contract Three thousand and eight hundred element / Tons of line pressure can be high short selling, long trend to maintain the bottom of the shock uplift thinking, rolling operations during the period, arbitrage, TA9-1 It is still suitable for reverse logic, and it is recommended to wait for margin of safety.