Negative Factors Remain PTA Or Enter The Callback Finishing Stage.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of domestic PTA market first increased and then fell. As of May 22nd, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market was 3560 yuan / ton, up 3.62% from the beginning of the week, down 40.9% from the same period last year. Crude oil continued to strengthen, its own device overhaul increased, superimposed suppliers repurchase spot, in this drive, PTA prices continue to shift the focus of gravity, but the 22 day price adjustment fell, a single day decline of 1.99%.

On the device side, Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical 400 thousand ton PTA device was overhauled in the morning in May 18th, and planned to be overhauled for 28 days. Han Bang Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons PTA plant 19 days from the beginning of the car maintenance, planned maintenance for 1-2 weeks. Domestic PTA load fell from 92% to 87%. In June, the main maintenance plan of PTA was Hainan Yisheng, Xinjiang Zhongtai and Yizheng chemical fiber. The expansion of profit level made PTA factory overhaul decline, and did not rule out the possibility of postponing maintenance. In terms of inventory, production capacity at the beginning of the year is superimposed on the high rate of opening up, and now the social stock is above 3 million 500 thousand tons. In terms of processing fees, since May, the PTA processing fee has fluctuated between 700-800 yuan / ton. This level of processing fees is undoubtedly high in the current stage of excess capacity, mainly due to the weakness of the upstream PX link and the result of continuous letting profits.

In the upstream oil market, with the support of supply exceeding expectations and demand for better support, prices are showing a trend of increasing volatility. However, the PX performance is not satisfactory, and the price is still weak. Despite the partial maintenance in May, the supply of PX is still abundant. As of May 21st, the closing price in Asia was 488 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 508 US dollars / ton CFR China.

　　 Polyester filament market average price rise and fall, unit: yuan / ton

Downstream polyester market rebounded slightly, of which the most obvious increase is polyester FDY, weekly gain of 5.41%, followed by polyester POY, polyester DTY, polyester staple fiber, respectively, increased by 3.37%, 2.93%, 2.30%. The trend of the cost side is strong, which boosted the price of polyester market, but the downstream replenishment performance is weak, and the mood of caution is more intense. From the perspective of the terminal textile market, the domestic and foreign trade market has recovered to a certain extent since May, and domestic demand has gradually recovered. The order in the weaving market has improved slightly, and the goods are better than before. The manufacturers' enthusiasm has increased, and the loom operating rate has increased by more than 62%. Some overseas countries have announced their release and export sales are quietly starting. It is reported that orders for Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia have been issued recently.

In terms of textile exports, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in April 2020, the export volume of textiles and clothing was 21 billion 361 million US dollars, an increase of 38.43%, an increase of 9.77% over the same period last year. Among them, exports of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and articles) amounted to US $14 billion 620 million 700 thousand, an increase of 49.36% over the same period last year. Exports of garments (including garments and accessories) were US $6 billion 739 million 900 thousand, an increase of 30.31% over the same period last year. In 1-4 months, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 66 billion 626 million US dollars, down 12.06% from the same period last year. The total export volume of textiles was 37 billion 311 million 500 thousand US dollars, up 2.90% over the same period last year. The total export volume of garments was 29 billion 308 million 900 thousand US dollars, down 22.33% from the same period last year.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the current PTA market remains stable and uptrend driven by the good cost side. But it is worth noting that PTA's "high inventory, high processing fee and Gao Kaigong rate" problem has not been fundamentally solved. At the same time, the downstream terminal's foreign trade resumed slowly, and the order performance was not stable. At present, the main demand for raw material procurement remained rigid. If the subsequent orders could not be followed up in time, the possibility of loom load reduction could not be eliminated in the late June, and the real warming needs to be observed. Overall, the negative factors remain, PTA prices continue to rise, or enter the callback finishing stage.