Global Stock Market Is Still Warm And Cold, Optimistic About A Share Market In The Second Half

"Investors believe that the darkest hour is over, thus driving up the risk assets at the moment. But the more worrying news is that global economic activity is far from being restored to pre epidemic levels.

After overnight US stock continued to jubilant, in June 9th, the Asia Pacific market's main stock index rose. Australia's S & P 200 index closed 2.44% higher, the Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.62% higher, Shenzhen reached 0.61% higher, the Korea composite index closed 0.21% higher, Hongkong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.13%, stood at 25000 points, and hit a new high of nearly three months. In addition, only a few markets fell, such as the New Zealand Standard & Poor's 50 index fell 1.96%, and the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.38%.

Local time June 8th, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose and rose by more than 1% on the whole, and the three largest indexes have rebounded over 40% over the March low point. Of them, the NASDAQ has completely recovered land lost in the year, and has reached a new historical high of 9927.13 points, up 10% from the beginning of the year.

The global market risk appetite seems to be returning after the US stock market started its "start" in June. The US dollar, which remained strong in the current epidemic, continued to decline. In the past 10 months, the US dollar index of trading days has fallen below the 97 pass from nearly 100 positions, dropping more than 2.7%. On the other hand, non US currencies began to rebound.

The traditional hedge assets gold also showed signs of rising energy weakness in the near future, hovering around 1700 U.S. dollars / ounce. The largest global gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust holdings, which measured investor sentiment, decreased by 2.63 tons, or 0.23%, and the current position was 1125.48 tons, which is the ETF's reduction in gold for third consecutive trading days since April. In June 8th, for the first time in three months, international oil prices broke above the 40 dollar / barrel integer pass.

But European stock market and US stock futures data show optimism in the market. In June 9th, Europe's major indexes opened lower and then expanded. As of press release, the European Stoxx 50 index fell 1.73%, the French CAC 40 index fell 1.48%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 1.74%, and the German DAX index fell 1.60%. In the US stock market, in June 9th, the three major indexes opened down, and the Dow index opened lower 1.28%, the first time since the 7 trading day. The S & P 500 index opened 1.1%, and the NASDAQ opened 0.48%.

In June 9th, the main index of Asia Pacific market rose. Visual China

The market seems to be too happy.

Although the global new crown is still grim, some economic activities are still closed, but many major economies have begun to restart. Optimism in the financial markets is soaring, betting on a rapid economic recovery.

The market is very excited, but there is no lack of prudent voice.

"Investors believe that the darkest hour is over, thus driving up the risk assets at the moment. But the more worrying news is that global economic activity is far from being restored to pre epidemic levels. Morgan Asia chief strategist Tai Hui released a comment in June 9th.

A strong report released last Friday triggered a strong rebound in US stocks. According to the non farm employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in June 5th, 2 million 500 thousand jobs were added in the United States in May, while the market forecast was reduced by 8 million. In May, the unemployment rate dropped from 14.7% to 13.3%, although the Ministry of labor later said that the data were in error, the actual unemployment rate was at least 16.3%, but still higher than the 19.5% expected by the market.

"We see that even the revised non-agricultural employment data have improved significantly over the expected and previous values. It seems that the US economy does have strong resilience. But the sustainability of one month's data needs to be verified, reflecting a relatively good momentum. However, as the US data often adjust the preliminary data, whether the rebound trend is obvious remains to be seen. Zhou Wenqun, chief executive and fund manager of China International Stock Exchange, told the twenty-first Century economic report.

She also said that the main winners of the US stock rally were apple, Amazon and other major technology giants.

In Europe, the euro area composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 31.9 in May, which improved significantly compared with 13.6 in April. Manufacturing and service industries are also beginning to recover. The European Central Bank announced last week that it had added 600 billion euros to the purchase of debt, and Germany has just launched a fiscal stimulus of 130 billion euros, which has driven European stocks to a certain extent.

Beware of the second wave impact risk

According to the benchmark scenario forecast made by the office of investment management of UBS, the target of the S & P 500 index and the European Stoxx 50 index will be 3300 and 3250 respectively in June next year, but the current target is only 2% below the target in a year, and the European stock market has exceeded the target by more than 3%.

"When the European and American stock markets move towards our upside scenario (i.e. the target of 3500 and 3400 in June next year), the premise is that the economy will continue to recover from the three quarter, and the social activities in all major areas will be restored to the pre epidemic level in the second half of the year. It also depends on viral testing and tracking methods, drug effects and carrying capacity of intensive care units, and whether vaccines can be produced before the end of the year. The relationship between epidemic prevention and control and economic activities is closely related to the financial market. " UBS Investment Management Director of the office in June 9th released the view.

The current market trend is inseparable from the impact of epidemic development.

"The global recovery will be endless. This will require extensive vaccination and effective viral testing. In particular, the epidemic in Brazil, India and Russia has deteriorated significantly, and the possibility of the second wave of the epidemic still cannot be ruled out. At present, the risk assets are enjoying a strong upward momentum, which may last for weeks. But if the market continues to bet on rapid economic recovery, then the risk of late adjustment will rise, especially those that are very sensitive to the second wave of epidemic and Sino US friction. We continue to recommend a balanced portfolio of equity debt portfolios. Tai Hui analysis said.

Kristina Hooper, chief global marketing strategist, believes that the major economies need to prepare for the second wave of possible outbreaks. The fiscal stimulus should be on standby and can be deployed or increased at any time to deal with another economic lockout.

A shares remain attractive in the second half of the year

China has already removed some stricter measures in March, and the indicators indicate that China is undergoing large-scale recovery. In May, the purchasing managers' index PMI of Caixin's general manufacturing industry was 50.7, up from 49.4 in April. In May, the PMI of non manufacturing industries was 55, up from 44.4 in April. In addition, the figures released in June 8th showed that in May, China's generalized passenger vehicle sales increased by 1 million 639 thousand, up 1.9% over the same period last year, the first increase in the data in 11 months.

In Zhou Wenqun's view, under the condition of loose global liquidity, funds will flow to emerging markets more or less, and China is the most fundamental in emerging markets, and the first progress has been made in the prevention and control of epidemic situation. "In the case of global liquidity, China's A shares should be a good hedge asset. I think the second half of the year A shares are still attractive in the global stock market. Liquidity easing will support the high volatility of the stock index. " She said.

Wan de data show that in June 9th, Hong Kong stocks went northward to the capital to buy a net purchase of 4 billion 629 million yuan a day, while the northern capital continued to maintain a net buying state. Since May 22nd, it has been buying for 12 consecutive days, with a total net inflow of 44 billion 639 million yuan.

"In May, the shareholding ratio of foreign capital in A shares has reached 9% according to the market share of the market value. At the end of last year, the figure was still 7%." Zhou Wenqun said.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, pointed out in June 7th that with the continuous inflow of foreign capital since the beginning of April, foreign capital flowing out of A shares at the beginning of the global market crash has basically returned. This is a very good sign, reflecting that foreign investors are still very optimistic about A shares.

However, Zhou Wenqun pointed out that due to the impact of the epidemic and overseas uncertainties, the A share listed companies in the second half of this year will have more obvious performance declines. Technological innovation is still an important growth point, and the pattern of "strong and strong" will become more prominent.

As far as the plate is concerned, the concentration of all trades and industries is accelerating and the leading edge is obvious. I am more optimistic about building materials, hotels, restaurants and service industries. In view of the acceleration of online penetration during the epidemic, electricity providers, logistics and education sectors will benefit from this. In addition, I am still optimistic about consumption upgrading and consumption reflow related sectors and anti inflation assets. In the short term, it is recommended to circumvent export oriented enterprises, and long-term opportunities to be global enterprises. Zhou Wenqun said.

According to the investment strategy of CITIC Securities issued in the second half of June 9th, the three major factors, including policy driven basic repair, A share attractiveness in the global configuration and loose macro mobility to the stock market, will jointly drive A shares up. A shares will open up a "comfortable cow" in the second half of the year.

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