The Traditional Off-Season Of Textile Industry Is Coming, And The Downstream Demand Is Recovering Slowly. The External Environment Is Deteriorating, And The Trend Of Zheng Cotton Is Weak.

The first part is the summary of basic data of domestic and foreign cotton market.

First, weekly data overview

Prices of major commodities and cotton

　　 This week, the CRB commodity price index fell 4.66 from last Friday and closed at 134.32 on Friday. According to the varieties, the performance of agricultural products and crude oil was weak, and there were different ranges of decline. In the agricultural products, the bean decreased the largest, falling 3.8 cents / bushels, and the US corn fell 2.2 cents / bushels. ICE cotton fell 2.01 cents / pound compared with last week; crude oil also fell this week, down 2.41 US dollars / barrel. The gold medal for hedge varieties this week was stronger, with a sharp rise of $48.7 / ounce during the week, closing at $1737.3 / ounce on Friday. The mainstream cotton resources remained stable except for stable cotton printing last Friday, while the rest declined slightly. Domestic cotton yarn price index remained stable.

On the spot side, as of June 13th, Xinjiang processed 5 million 184 thousand and 100 tons and accumulated a total of 5 million 127 thousand and 900 tons of public inspection. After the rise in cotton spot prices this week, the spot trading fell slightly, and spot trading improved slightly. The new cotton processing stage is approaching, and some of the recent cotton ginning plants are gradually dropping. However, the remaining cotton quality of the ginning plant is not good enough, mostly for high, low, long and strong resources.

Downstream market, this week downstream cotton yarn ends local distribution needs and net sales demand of low spin yarn is better, but the overall goods are slowly weakening state, and goods delivery situation is worse than the end of May. At present, there are many deficiencies in the order of textile enterprises, and production and marketing are difficult to achieve. And the starting point, the current textile enterprises start more stable, if the market is further light, the subsequent textile enterprises to reduce production phenomenon or increase. The fabric end is weaker, and there are more holidays in the northern textile mill. The load on the grey fabric ends 1.2 percentage points lower than that on last Friday. Downstream enterprises are more worried about the order.

Zhengzhou cotton market, Zhou zhengmian main 09 contract performance this week weak, the weekly price fell 130 yuan / ton, closing on Friday closed 11855 yuan / ton, positions sharply reduced 33 thousand hand to 378 thousand hands, volume increased 735 thousand hands, to 2 million 137 thousand hands, active trading.

The second part is the basic situation of the domestic market.

1, textile main raw material trend

　　 In terms of raw material prices, the price of polyester fiber increased slightly by 20 yuan / ton last week, and the price of viscose and cotton yarn remained stable. The spot price index of cotton continued to rise, rising by 161 yuan / ton, and the 09 contract of Zheng cotton fell 130 yuan / ton compared with that of last Friday. The price of cotton and cotton yarn rose steadily by 161 yuan per ton.

2, cotton yarn price trend

　　 In June 12th, the market price of pure cotton yarn remained unchanged from last Friday, and the price of polyester yarn continued to increase slightly by 50 yuan / ton compared with last Friday.

　　 In June 12th, the dollar price of imported yarn stabilized basically unchanged from last Friday.

　　 In June 12th, the price of external yarn denominated in Renminbi declined collectively than that of last Friday because of the appreciation of the renminbi.

　　 The price difference between June 12th and June 12th was 415 yuan / ton. Last Friday, the spread price difference was 282 yuan / ton, and the spread was small.

3. Comparison between domestic cotton futures price and international cotton price index (including tax).

　　 In June 12th, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 reported 12083 yuan / ton; FC IndexM reported 68.02 cents / pound, the price was 1% yuan, the price was 11914 yuan / ton, and the discount tax was 13712 yuan / ton. The spot price index and the cotton price ratio under sliding tax are -1629 yuan / ton, last Friday was -1823 yuan / ton. Compared with the 1% tariff, the price is 169 yuan / ton. The difference between spot price index and sliding tax is further narrowed.

In June 12th, the main contract 2009 closed at 11855 yuan / ton, and the price difference with FC Index M (sliding tax) -1857 yuan / ton, last Friday was -1760 yuan / ton, and its FC Index M price difference -59 1% yuan / ton under the tariff. The price difference between Zheng cotton and sliding tax has widened slightly.

　　 As of June 12th, the main contract of ICE was closed at 59.4 cents / pound in December, 9246 yuan / ton on the disk price, and 2608 yuan / ton in the 2009 contract with zhengmian 2009. The trade price of 10 cents was calculated to be RMB 12093 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Zheng cotton 2009 contract (zhengmian -ICE cotton) was RMB yuan / ton.

The third part is Zheng cotton market analysis.

1, Zheng cotton warehouse receipt and effective forecast situation

　　 As of June 12th, the registered warehouse receipt of Zheng cotton was 23006 (989 thousand tons), effective forecasts were 2890 (124 thousand tons), warehouse receipts and effective forecasts were 1 million 113 thousand tons, last Friday reduced 1 million 140 thousand tons, 27 thousand tons, the total amount of warehouse receipts continued to decrease, the disk pressure has been released.

2, Zheng cotton current price difference analysis

　　 As of June 12th, the price difference between Zheng cotton futures and the CCI3128B index was -228 yuan / ton, which was 63 yuan / ton last Friday, and the current price spreads widened sharply.

3, Zheng cotton price analysis

On the macro side, with the expansion of anti racism in the United States, the epidemic in 18 states has rebounded since last month. The fear of the second round of attacks in the United States has caused panic among investors. The three major indexes of the New York stock market fell sharply on the 11 day local time. The Dow Jones index, which reflects the overall level of industrial and commercial stock prices in the United States, plunged more than 1800 points, or nearly 7%. The biggest one-day drop since mid March. Even if the US Treasury secretary says, the US will not take any restrictive measures to stop the economy. But investors are also aware that the impact of the epidemic may be longer. The sharp rise in gold prices confirms this concern. After rising to $1700 / ounce in recent weeks, gold prices have reached a new high of 9 years. In addition, this week, the Central Bank of China carried out a total of 420 billion yuan reverse repurchase operations. At the same time, it issued a notice that it would continue to do the medium term loan convenience (MLF) on the month of June 15th (next Monday) to boost market confidence.

From the perspective of the global cotton pattern, according to the latest global cotton supply and demand forecast released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) in June, the global cotton output in 2019/20 increased slightly by 65 thousand tons compared with May, and the consumption volume dropped by another 515 thousand tons. The global end of term inventory was 21 million 894 thousand tons, a sharp increase of 739 thousand tons. In 2020/21, the total output of the world's cotton is expected to be 25 million 852 thousand tons, down by 47 thousand tons, the global consumption is expected to be 24 million 910 thousand tons, the reduction of the ring is 446 thousand tons, and the end of the world will be 22 million 789 thousand tons, a 1 million 140 thousand ton increase from last time. Overall, this month's supply and demand report is empty. At present, terminal consumption is still a difficult problem. High inventories make cotton prices under pressure. Although the consumption volume continues to decrease in the new year, the overall expected consumption is better than last year. Of course, there is uncertainty at present.

Domestically, the total cotton business inventory in the end of May was about 3 million 773 thousand and 800 tons, a decrease of 523 thousand and 700 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 12.2%. Cotton business inventories are still at historically high levels, but the monthly consumption of cotton has increased somewhat from last month, or even higher than the same period last year, indicating a gradual improvement in the downstream consumption side. In terms of industrial inventories, as at the end of May, the inventory of textile enterprises in the warehouse industry was 679 thousand and 500 tons. Compared with the increase of 6 thousand and 100 tons, the stock of disposable cotton, yarn and grey fabric all increased in different ranges. From the increase of total industrial inventory, we can see that the demand for lower demand for goods in the downstream enterprises has increased, but at this stage, the market is not improving as a whole.

From the perspective of demand, export orders have been slow to recover, textile enterprises have insufficient overall orders, shipping mentality is the main, production and marketing are difficult to achieve, and the overall inventory level of textile enterprises has increased slightly. And the starting point, the current textile enterprises start more stable, if the market is further light, the subsequent textile enterprises to reduce production phenomenon or increase. There were many downgrades in the weaving factory, and the phenomenon of holiday increased. Last week, only a few large factories still maintained high load operation. However, the follow-up orders for pure cotton fabrics are still weak.

This week, the CRB international commodity price index closed 134.32 cents / pound on Friday, down 4.66 during the week. The domestic Wenhua index continued to oscillate during the week, closing 140.36 on Friday and rising 0.39 in the week, further paying attention to the 146 front line pressure. The ICE cotton main 12 contract closed at 59.03 cents / pound on Friday, rising 0.21 cents / pound during the week. The 09 contract of Zheng cotton main force on Friday closed at 11855 yuan / ton, and the weekly price dropped 130 yuan / ton.

On the whole, at the present stage, the textile industry has been in the traditional off-season, and the downstream consumption side has become more and more deserted. Superimposed Beijing's recent case of local diagnosis, and the rapid rise in the number of confirmed, epidemic prevention and control measures increased, triggering market fears of the two outbreak, and has a certain adverse impact on the recovery of the capital market. However, due to locust and drought weather, the market is expected to reduce the supply side of new cotton in the new year. From the demand side, despite the recent escalation of the Sino US dispute, China is still signing a large number of US cotton, supporting the US cotton prices and looking at the short-term trend of cotton prices. At present, the locusts have not reached the peak period, and there is still room for speculation. Besides, the current cotton is in the undervalued range, and the risk of short selling is too large. It is suggested that long term traders should buy more.

　　 This week zhengmian main 09 contract Week price week continued weak trend of shocks, Friday closed at 11855 yuan / ton, the weekly price fell 130 yuan / ton, positions sharply reduced 33 thousand hand to 378 thousand hands, volume increased 735 thousand hands, to 2 million 137 thousand hands, from the technical perspective, MACD, red column continued shrinkage. DIFF and DEA showed signs of dead crossing. KDJ index fitted the dead fork and had a downward divergence trend, and technical indicators showed signs of weakening. The highest price this week is 12155 yuan / ton, a record high of nearly three months, but the index is not high and deviated.

The fourth part is international market analysis.

1, US cotton export dynamics

　　 05.29-06.04 this week, the United States signed 90633 tons of cotton sales in the 2019/20 year, a significant increase in the average contract volume compared with the previous week and nearly four weeks. The shipment of 66752 tons of upland cotton increased by 24% compared with the previous week, and the average load increased by 18% over the past four weeks. Overall, the performance of the contract data was strong this week, and the shipment data remained stable.

　　 As of June 2nd, CFTC holdings data showed that the fund's net multi position was -3297, after a week's data was -6917 hand; the fund's net long positions increased sharply, an increase of 3620 compared with last week, and the market's pessimism in the future has been improving.

2, ICE cotton analysis

　　 This week, ICE cotton main force 12 contract, week trend is weak, the weekly price has fallen 2.01 cents / pound, Friday closed at 59.03 cents / pound. From the technical point of view, MACD red column shrinkage. DIFF and DEA showed signs of dead crossing. KDJ index fitted the dead fork and had the trend of downward divergence. The technical indicators showed signs of weakening. After the US cotton rebounded, the US cotton company was alert to the possibility of a callback.

The fifth part is operation suggestion.

It is suggested that the upper reaches of the cotton store should be closed according to the progress of sales.

It is recommended that cotton trade enterprises set up virtual stocks near the low price area of history.

Textile enterprises already have (virtual stock) positions can be left on the right amount, at the same time, according to the order situation, just need to replenishment.

The current companies are going to have a strong base to speed up the sale of spot prices.

It is suggested that the long term bottom line funds that have already been admitted in the early stage will be controlled at 10-15%, and those who have not entered the market will be placed in a low position and the positions will be controlled within 10%.