Continued Rebound Power Is Insufficient, PTA Late Callback Probability Larger

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic PTA spot market in June 17th was 3685 yuan / ton, up 0.76% from the previous day, down 34.49% from the same period last year. Futures market, main futures (2009) rose slightly, to close the main futures closed at 3712, compared with the previous trading day rose 32, or 0.87%.

The price of crude oil market rose. In June 16th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil main contract was quoted at 38.38 US dollars / barrel, or increased by 1.26 US dollars, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil main contract was quoted at 40.96 US dollars, or 1.24 US dollars. US stocks rose, and US retail sales in May rose to a record. The positive factors reflected more signs of recovery in the US economy, and the expected effect of OPEC+ reduction was superimposed. With the help of PX, the closing price of Asia in 16 days is 527 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 547 US dollars / ton CFR China, up 27 US dollars / ton compared with the previous day. The domestic PX price is maintained at 4100 yuan / ton. On the installation side, the 650 thousand tons / year PX installation of Zhenhai Refining and chemical company will be servicing in June 19th, and is expected to last until July 5th.

In terms of PTA installations, the current operating rate is maintained at around 87%, and the 3#65 PTA / PTA device of Yangzi Petrochemical Company is running normally, and is scheduled to be overhauled at the end of the month. Fuhai 4 million 500 thousand tons PTA plant load increase, Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical 400 thousand tons plant plan to restart in June 19th, later Han Bang Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons plant plans to restart in late June, Peng Wei petrochemical PTA plant plans to restart in July, the supply side will be pressurized. In addition, the domestic stock has reached 3 million 550 thousand tons, which is close to 90 thousand tons at the end of May, but is still at a high level. In addition, the Hengli 5# installation is expected to be put into operation in late June, and the situation of short-term PTA storage is difficult to change.

In the downstream polyester market, Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical eighth sets of PET production units were put into operation in June 12th, and the demand for PTA increased. The current start-up load is near 86%. At present, all kinds of polyester products are still differentiated. Besides the staple fiber and bottle profit margins, the main product filament market is still poor. After experiencing two short production and marketing peaks since May, the polyester market has entered the storehouse again. At the same time, in June, as the textile and clothing consumption in the off-season, terminal inventory has not yet been effectively digested, and the enthusiasm of purchasing has been reduced. Compared with the same period last year, with the characteristics of off-season become more apparent, polyester load continues to increase pressure is greater, there is a possibility of reduction in July. The price is stable, among which the mainstream 150D/48F of the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is quoted at 5700-5900 yuan / ton. In addition, the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving was stable at 63.40%, but it was still low.

Business Analyst Xia Ting believes that in the short term, crude oil rebound and PX rise are favorable for PTA market mentality. However, due to the early fall of oil prices, the PTA production link continued to rise, and the growth rate of PTA in the 3 to April was far higher than that in the upstream market. The production profit of PTA was still maintained at a good level of 700 - 800 yuan / ton, and the pre maintenance device would accelerate the resumption of production, making it possible to delay the possibility of a factory with repair plans and further increase the pressure of PTA supply. At the same time, facing the summer textile traditional off-season, the demand for external demand is still variable. There is uncertainty in terminal demand. The purchasing intention of downstream manufacturers is not high, and the market continues to be weak. The overall turnover atmosphere remains light, which is not conducive to the digestion of PTA inventory. Therefore, from a comprehensive perspective, PTA continues to rebound less power, and the probability of late callback is larger.