"Red May" To Kill: Shanghai Property Market Recovery Hidden Behind Worries

Shanghai property market to fire?

"The end of last year is a good time to buy and sell." Recently, Chen You, who is now building a new house, has just sold the house on the outer ring of Shanghai and replaced a larger house by the end of 2019.

Chen you originally planned to replace it when he was in 2016. He had no choice but to meet the "Shanghai six item". When he bought two apartments and accepted the loan, many people were stuck on the down payment, and the demand for the house was shrinking. The house had not been sold. She was glad that at the end of last year, someone was willing to buy her house and sold it on a decisive basis.

This year, the red market of Shanghai property market is coming to an agreement in May. From March to May, the property market in Shanghai was fully recovered from a straight line: 5000 transactions in April, 9000 in May, and 15 thousand and 200 more in March, 24 thousand and 600 in April, and 29 thousand in March.

The volume of 9000 sets of Shanghai Yishoufang in May was the highest in 45 months since September 2016. Moreover, in May, the average price of new commercial housing in Shanghai was 63717 yuan / square meter, up 6%, up 15% compared with the same period last year, and the house price rose obviously. The 29 thousand set in May has hit a new 44 month high in Shanghai since October 2016. In 2016, it was the hottest year in the history of Shanghai property market.

After the introduction of "Shanghai six", the property market in Shanghai has entered the consolidation period. This year finally ushering in a round of eruption, coupled with the changes in the land market, the government has actively promoted the industry. Insiders believe that the Shanghai property market has entered the repair and recovery cycle.

Looking at the country, compared to Shanghai, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, the property market is also hot, second-hand housing prices have risen significantly, and the western part of Shenzhen has soared. And the price of new houses is relaxed because of the price limit.

Yan Yuejin, director of research center of the think-tank of Yi Ju Research Institute, pointed out that in fact, the hot property market in Shanghai is actually three elements, including supply, demand and loans. From the perspective of supply itself, the pace of supply of Shanghai real estate began to accelerate in April, and Housing enterprises actively launched projects at this time to carry out sales and accelerate the pace of marketing. And from the demand side, it is also because the demand for housing is very strong, improving, buying school districts and so on, it also shows that Shanghai is not short of demand for housing, once the property market is open, the transaction will rise. From the perspective of loans, the recent mortgage policy is relatively loose, the cost of housing is significantly reduced, and the contract has also accelerated.

Restorative warming

The new house in Shanghai's front beach was set at a price limit of 85 thousand yuan per square meter per square meter last year, and the average price of the East Hui Li sold out on the opening day of May this year was 92 thousand yuan / square meter. The average price of the Xiang Tan Xiang Xiang, which has just begun to recognize the chips, has reached 121 thousand and 800 yuan / square meter. According to Kerri's data, the total number of new premises opened in April, and 28 of them were concentrated in the second half of the year. The same situation happened in May, and the end of the month showed 21 new markets opened.

In fact, consumers' demand for purchase is different. In 4 and May, replacement was the main form, and in June, there were more transactions just needed. Most of the high-end market launched in April, Eastern Hui Li, Hai Hui Delhi, Bi Yun Zun Di, Jingan Fu West District, Binjiang Triumphal Arch, etc., the average recognition rate is more than 100%, and even several projects recognition rate is close to 200%.

The property market reflects liquidity. In June 18th, the people's Bank of China launched a 120 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with interest rate bidding. Industry interpretation for policy continues to maintain directional easing. Zhang Hongwei, chief analyst of the comprehensive policy research institute, and other people's views, under the direction of adhering to the principle of "housing instead of speculation", the possibility of opening the door of real estate regulation is not large. The key to buying or not buying a house is to see how big the two windows of "credit + talent" are. Global credit easing, the standard of identifying talents will be lower and lower. These two policies are expected to be the mainstream policy of the market in 2020.

Zhang Dawei, principal analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, thinks that the hot property market in every region will continue to maintain for a few months. If the 5 year LPR remains unchanged, turnover will fall to normal in 7-8 months.

But Yang Yulei, a chain analyst at Shanghai, believes that the market is in a state of repair, and that when the market is adjusted, it will return to normal. Yi Ju Research Institute data show that on June 1st -18, Shanghai Yishoufang transactions 3905 sets. This is still far from the scale of over 9000 sets in May.

Lu Wenxi, an analyst at Zhongyuan market in Shanghai, also pointed out that since June, the number of new houses has been about 350 thousand square meters. In June, the total volume of 700 thousand square meters is estimated to be less than 1 million square meters in May. About 25 thousand sets of second-hand housing, compared with a slight reduction in May.

However, the demand for Shanghai increased in 4 and May, and the supply gap in the country suddenly exposed. According to data from the research center, as of May 2020, Shanghai's new housing (residential + Villa) inventory number was only 57707 sets, a new low in the past year. Inventory in Shanghai's new housing market shows a trend of shortage.

Supply of faults leads to faults in demand. In May, Qingpu, Songjiang, Nanhui and other regions became the main trading areas, with a turnover of more than 4 million -500 yuan, and the supply of Shanghai's Yishoufang mainly concentrated outside the outer ring area in the second half of the year.

It is worth mentioning that in recent years, there are also low recognition rates for individual properties in the center of Shanghai. According to people familiar with the matter, the first recognition rate of a project in central was only 10%, and the housing market continued to be volatile in the second half of the year.

One hand room inventory urgent

How big is Shanghai's new housing gap?

More than 50 thousand sets of Yishoufang, if calculated in accordance with the speed of 4 and May turnover, Shanghai's Yishoufang is only enough to support 8.2 months; according to the past year (May last year to May this year, excluding the affected by the 2, March) the average monthly rate of 6000 sets, but only enough to support 9.6 months. Shanghai's Yishoufang market is in short supply.

Data from the Central Plains of Shanghai showed that the supply of new commercial housing in Shanghai exceeded 900 thousand square meters in April, but fell to 600 thousand square meters in May, while the turnover area jumped from 600 thousand square meters to more than 1 million square meters.

The industry pointed out that the recent housing companies take the initiative to cope with the supply gap. Taking Jindi as an example, recent movements have taken place frequently. Although the Suzhou block has not been successful, it has successively arranged Nanjing and Shanghai. In June, Jindi took 4 plots of Nanjing Jiangbei new district for 2 billion 500 million yuan, with a total area of 138 thousand and 900 square meters, and 2 billion 902 million received a homestead in Qingpu, Shanghai.

Insiders pointed out that there was a demand for land vacancy. The company's revenue scale declined in eastern China in 2019, accounting for 10.68% of the group's revenue. Officials explained that the settlement area of the real estate project in the region was reduced.

According to the monitoring data of the middle finger hospital, from June 1st to 18, a total of 11 land transactions were completed in Shanghai, and the land transfer fee was about 8 billion 720 million yuan. In this 1-5 month, Shanghai sold about 104 billion 752 million yuan of land transfer fees, with an average premium rate of 0.8%.

From the housing enterprises actively see that the land supply volume trend is also more obvious, especially in some two or three line cities in Zhejiang, inventory sales ratio has dropped to less than 10, such as Wenzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo. In recent years, Jiaxing and Ningbo have a great fever. Central Plains real estate research center statistics show that as of June 19th, the national land market continued to heat up, especially in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing and other cities continued to appear at a high price. Last year, Beijing's soil patting was still restricted to the housing market, and this year many land prices are not restricted.

In the past two months, the turnover of second-hand housing in Shanghai and the volume of land have led to a large increase in market confidence for most of the housing companies. Many other cities sell land very positively, and land market turnover continues to rise. Zhongyuan Real Estate Research in the 50 major cities in the first time there were 3 hundred billion land sales cities, namely Beijing, Hangzhou and Shanghai. Among them, Hangzhou 148 billion 200 million, Beijing 114 billion 300 million, Shanghai 125 billion 800 million.

This year, the 50 largest cities in the country sell 2 trillion, up 14% over the same period. 33 cities sell more than 20 billion. More than ten billion cities in 52 cities have set a new record.

Zhang Dawei believes that housing prices began to actively take place, mainly for the pursuit of market size, especially in recent years, a lot of companies rarely take place, but also began to actively take.

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