Inventory Pressure Remains In July PTA Price Center Will Move Downward.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the price of domestic PTA spot market showed a "M" shock upward trend in June. With the support of cost, the high level of inventory and the weakness of terminal's traditional off-season demand were narrowed compared with the increase in May. The average market price in June 28th ended at 3661 yuan / ton, up 3.02% from the beginning of the month, down 42.48% from the same period last year.

As can be seen from the above chart, the recent cost increase will boost the PTA market. Crude oil is still in the production cycle, prices continue to rise, in June 24th, the US WTI crude oil futures contract settlement price of 38.01 U.S. dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil futures contract settlement price of 40.31 U.S. dollars / barrel. The international oil price oscillation is strong, overlaying the routine and planned maintenance and production reduction events of Asian PX installations. The PX has been hit by the bottom rebound. As of June 24th, the closing price in Asia reached 556 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 576 US dollars / ton CFR China, and domestic PX price was 4300 yuan / ton, up 4.88% compared with the beginning of the month, down 38.57%.

　　 Recent changes in PX installations in Asia

PTA supply side, Han Bang Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons of accidents and Fuhai 4 million 500 thousand tons of short-term drop in negative, early June PTA operating rate dropped to 83% near. However, with the failure of Sichuan's 1 million tons PTA plant to restart at the beginning of the month, the 400 thousand tons of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical and 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hon Bang Petrochemical Company were launched at the end of the month. The 350 thousand tons of Yangzi Petrochemical Plant started to regenerate and the current PTA load increased to more than 92%. In early July, Ningbo Yisheng 2 million 200 thousand tonnes planned to stop short. In addition, Jialong petrochemical, Peng Wei petrochemical, Liwan polyester, Tianjin petrochemical and Hon Bang petrochemical 1# were still in the parking phase, and the restart time was to be determined.

　　 Recent changes in domestic PTA installations

In terms of inventory, in June, affected by the parking of two major factories, the PTA market was in a state of 3 million 750 thousand tons, leaving a slight decrease from last month, but increased by nearly 2 million 500 thousand tons compared with the same period last year. It is still at a high level, which is not enough to reverse the industry pattern of PTA supply and demand in the medium and long term.

Production and marketing of downstream polyester market is flat, with the current operating rate of 85% near, Tianjin Petrochemical 200 thousand ton polyester plant, new Feng Ming 250 thousand ton polyester plant plan to restart, Anhui Jinzhai new Lun 120 thousand ton short fiber plan is negative, and Yizheng chemical fiber 200 thousand tons new short fiber plan is put into operation, so it is expected that polyester starting will be improved in July. However, the textile market of the terminal textile industry has gradually deepened in the off-season. It is even more difficult at the time of the special year's low season. Most of the weaving enterprises have begun to sharply reduce the starting rate. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped slightly to below 61%. In terms of price, the market of polyester filament market has dropped to varying degrees after mid market, of which polyester staple fiber has dropped by 9.91% in the month.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, thinks that although the cost support is enhanced, PTA's own supply side has the expectation that Hengli Petrochemical's new capacity will be put into operation. It will overlay many devices at the end of the month to restart. At the same time, the demand for the off-season terminal will be reduced, and the weaving enterprises will take a negative vacation plan. The demand is also expected to be difficult to form a larger boost. Once again, the PTA market price will be weakened to the warehouse, and the price of PTA will be shifted downward in July.