Tourism "Climbing": Short Term Hard To Retaliate Rebound

Sister sun Xiaolan, who is a farmer at home, is very fond of the scene of tourists' full house last year.

As a restaurant and Hostel, which relies on the scenic spots of South Lishui, a famous tourist attraction in Lishui, Zhejiang, she has witnessed the changes in the scenic spots before and after the outbreak. "The Dragon Boat Festival these days tourists are gradually increased, but not bustling before, to the surrounding cities self driving, individual customers." She told the twenty-first Century business news reporter that when the scenic spots were busiest, the tourists had already lined up to the gate of a kilometre mountain road.

According to statistics released recently by the Ministry of culture and tourism, the three day holiday of the Dragon Boat Festival has received 48 million 809 thousand visitors from all over the country, up 50.9% compared to the same period last year, and realized tourism revenue of 12 billion 280 million yuan, up 31.2% from the same period last year. Although this group of data shows that the domestic tourism industry is gradually recovering, but the industry has been looking forward to the "retaliatory rebound" is still difficult to come.

"The trend of tourism economy to rebound and stabilize is continuing." The latest analysis of China Tourism Research Institute points out that considering the macroeconomic and market factors, the tourism economy in the second half of 2020 will be relatively optimistic.

However, some analysts told the twenty-first Century business news reporter that fluctuations in the epidemic situation, limited group travel and the transformation of tourism consumption demand will continue to be the uncertainties affecting the tourism industry.

Industrial recovery is volatile

It is undeniable that data show that domestic tourism consumer confidence is continuing to recover.

According to the "Dragon Boat Festival tourism market big data report" issued by Ctrip (hereinafter referred to as the "report"), the "Dragon Boat Festival" tourism data is obviously better than "Qingming". According to the report, two days before the long holiday of Dragon Boat Festival, the total number of domestic tourists was 37 million 77 thousand. The total domestic tourism revenue was 9 billion 660 million yuan, and the domestic tourism revenue exceeded the total sum of three days of Qingming small holiday.

Traffic travel data is also growing rapidly. In terms of air tickets, Dragon Boat passengers' domestic travel demand and demand for air tickets have been restored to 70% in the same period last year. In terms of railways, in June 25th, the national railway sent 7 million 530 thousand passengers, creating a new high volume of single passenger traffic after the Spring Festival.

The latest analysis from China Tourism Research Institute also pointed out that this year's "Dragon Boat Festival" tourism confidence recovery has been greatly improved compared with the "Qingming". Data show that compared with the Qingming holidays, the resumption of the "national total domestic tourist arrivals" and "tourism revenue" data in the Dragon Boat Festival holidays increased by 12.3 percentage points and 11.9 percentage points respectively, with a significant increase in tourism consumption per person per capita. Regarding this, the China Tourism Research Institute said, "the confidence of tourism consumption is recovering, the kinetic energy of industrial revitalization is beginning to accumulate, and the trend of tourism economy bottoming out and stabilizing steadily is continuing."

But compared with the May Day, the progress of the "Dragon Boat Festival" tourism market recovery has slowed down. Among them, the recovery rate of "national total domestic tourist arrivals" and "tourism revenue" data respectively dropped 2.7 percentage points and 5.5 percentage points respectively. In addition, according to the information released by the China Tourism Research Institute in June 28th, the travel radius of the domestic tourists and the length of their outing are different from that of May 1 holidays this year.

Liu Simin, vice president of China Tourism Research Association and China Tourism Research Association, said in an interview with the economic news reporters in twenty-first Century that the difference in the number of holidays is the objective reason for the difference in the progress of the two data recovery. But before the long holiday this year, the occurrence of the epidemic in Beijing affected tourism confidence to a certain extent.

"During the May 1 holiday, Beijing has contributed a lot as a hot city in China. But this year's Dragon Boat Festival is limited by whether it's going to Beijing or Beijing. Liu Simin said that as a source of tourism in previous years, Beijing's "long absence" in the Dragon Boat Festival has affected the industry both in terms of psychology and data.

Another perspective also shows that this year's "Dragon Boat Festival" popular tourist city's heat is not as strong as may day. In twenty-first Century, the economic report reporters compared this year's small dragon boat holidays and the first three of the tourists in the May 1 holiday. The average daily number of tourists in Hunan, Guangdong and Guizhou was 3 million 842 thousand and 300, 3 million 565 thousand and 300 and 3 million 243 thousand and 300 respectively, while the number of tourists in the top three of the "Dragon Boat Festival" scale was three. In Jiangxi, Guizhou and Hunan, the average daily reception times were 5 million 790 thousand and 800, 4 million 618 thousand and 900 and 3 million 945 thousand and 800 respectively.

Local peripheral tour still ranks "C bit".

A street called "Xuanyuan cultural street" runs through a scenic spot in Lishui, a famous scenic spot at 5A level. Now, after more than 10 years of development, the old street has been completely labeled as "a street in a residential street", providing about 2000000 tourists a year.

But in twenty-first Century, the economic report reporters interviewed on the spot found that this year's Dragon Boat Festival is a small holiday, and the overall occupancy rate of the residential street is less than 30%. A head of the homestay said that in previous years, there were many group tours and many self driving tours, and the rooms were often full. This year, though the situation is improving, it is not before the epidemic.

Fairy capital is not a case. The suspension of team tours, the restriction of inter provincial tourism, and the limited flow and reservation system under the normalization of epidemic prevention and epidemic prevention make the scenic spots unable to restore the normal carrying capacity in the short term.

In twenty-first Century, economic news reporters found that domestic tourism is changing due to the epidemic.

This year's Dragon Boat Festival is a small holiday, and the local tour is still "C". The data provided by Ctrip to the economic report reporters in twenty-first Century showed that the tour around the province and the province were the main tourist trips for the Dragon Boat Festival. The analysis report released by the donkey mother also pointed out that tourists still travel mainly by self driving tour, while the surrounding tourism is still hot. Tourists in the city (province) have been favored by tourists who are very cautious. The market growth is obvious. The order volume of customized travel is 43 times higher than that of Qingming small holiday.

The change of travel mode also forces the enterprises to transform their products. For example, in the first quarter of this year's report, south of the Five Ridges holdings pointed out that it will give play to its original business advantages in the province, further reinventing the profit model of the province's tourism, reinventing the direct selling channels of the province's tourism, reorganizing the strategic resources of the province's tourism, increasing the supply of fragmented services such as free travel, self driving tours and customized tours, and further developing the tourism and holiday destinations of health, food, sports and leisure. Divided into markets.

However, one side is watermelon, the other is sesame. "There is no cross provincial team tour" participation, "domestic tourism is hard to say revenge." Liu Simin told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter that although the second wave of domestic worries has not yet appeared, the "epidemic fluctuations" in some areas will continue to affect the confidence of the tourism industry. For tourists, the consumption rigidity of tourism is relatively weak after all.

In fact, the downturn in the A share market reflects the worries of capital on the industry. In June 28th, the first trading day after the end of the Long Dragon Boat Festival, the share prices of Listed Companies in Wen Lu plate were generally lower. Among them, most of the stock prices of scenic companies dropped - santre ropeway, Qu Jiangwen brigade, Tianmu Lake, Yunnan tourism, Jiuhua tourism fell more than 1%, while on the same day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen index rose by 0.3% and 0.17% respectively.

In the first quarter of this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, A shares tourism business revenue suffered cliff type decline. In particular, represented by scenic listed companies, Mount Emei lost 96 million yuan in the first quarter, Zhangjiajie lost 37 million yuan, and Changbai Mountain lost 29 million yuan.

Everbright Securities recently released an analysis report that, in the future, delayed consumption will help the scenic area to pick up quickly, and the performance will rise simultaneously. But the agency also said that due to the Limited long-distance travel, tourism in the province, especially peripheral tourism has become the main line of the recent tourism, while outbound travel will stagnate for a short time, and the recovery of the industry needs to wait for the end of the global epidemic.

"After this epidemic, it is impossible for us to go back to the past. It is hoped that more tourism enterprises will adapt to the market demand of inter city tourism, peripheral tourism, rural tourism and urban recreational tourism in the province, and develop customized tourism, research tourism, self driving tourism new products, and promote the digital transformation of enterprises. China Tourism Research Institute believes that confidence is more important than gold for the current domestic tourism industry.

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