Everbright Securities: Epidemic Situation Catalyzes Textile And Garment Development Opportunity, Non Woven Industry Is Available For A Long Time.

abstract

Global demand for nonwovens continues to grow, and capacity is gradually shifting to Asia.

In 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic prompted a significant increase in demand for protective products, driving the rapid growth of upstream nonwovens demand and attracting market attention. Nonwovens, which belong to industrial textiles, have been widely used in the fields of medical and health, geotechnical engineering, personal care, decoration, decoration and other fields in recent years, including the spunlace, needling, spunbond and so on.

The nonwovens industry originated in the United States in the 1950s, and technological innovation promoted the technology improvement, variety, application and consumption growth. It is estimated that the global output will be 13 million 600 thousand tons in 2022 and the market scale will be 57 billion 400 million US dollars. Since 2000, global nonwoven production capacity has gradually shifted to Asia, especially China. China has become the world's largest producer, consumer and exporter of nonwovens. In the competition pattern, Europe and the United States occupy the leading position in the industrial chain, and the degree of concentration is improved through mergers and acquisitions. The global CR10 is 27% in 16 years and the fourteenth in China.

Domestic nonwovens are fiercely competitive, upgrading consumption and promoting structural optimization.

China's nonwovens industry started late and developed rapidly. In recent years, the growth rate was slowed down by downstream demand. The production of nonwoven fabrics in the above 19 scale enterprises increased by 5 million 30 thousand tons and increased by 9.9% over the same period. In terms of structure, the spunlace and high-end spunbond fabrics with higher consumption promotion performance and technology have a higher growth rate, accounting for a continuous improvement.

The low entry threshold led to a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises to enter, concentrating on the low-end market for homogenization competition, high-end production capacity is insufficient, mainly rely on imports, industry concentration and capacity utilization rate is not high. The demand for spunbonded, spunlace and melt blown nonwovens increased significantly in the past 20 years, of which melt blown nonwovens were subject to significant increases in capacity and prices.

Domestic demand for nonwovens is gradually opening up and future development opportunities.

At present, the proportion of per capita consumption and fiber processing volume of industrial textiles in China (18 years, 27% in China and over 40% in Japan and the United States) is significantly lower than that in developed countries. As one of the upgrading directions of the industry, the development of industrial textiles can be expected. In recent years, the growth rate of industrial added value has been higher than that of the whole and the proportion has continued to improve. The technological breakthroughs and high-end of nonwovens are the future trend.

Future growth in demand for downstream medical and personal health care products will bring about continuous growth momentum for nonwovens: 1) non-woven fabrics have higher penetration of medical textiles in developed countries, 16 years of disposable medical nonwovens permeability in China is less than 5%, 70% and 40% in North America and Japan, demand for protective products increases, and demand for medical nonwovens is expected to continue to grow. Long. 2) in the 18 year, the scale of China's disposable personal hygiene care products market is 76 billion 700 million yuan, of which women's hygiene products are relatively high. The demand for baby diapers and adult incontinence products is expected to be released, and the consumption of nonwoven fabrics such as spunlace and spunbond will increase.

The epidemic catalyzes short-term performance, leading to long-term development.

In the near future, the demand for nonwoven products is increased. In the future, with the continuous release of the consumption of nonwoven products in China, the nonwovens industry is expected to usher in opportunities for development.

At present, the domestic nonwovens listed companies are ranked the top 10 in China's nonwovens industry and the leading spunlaced nonwovens industry in China. Yanjiang shares are the leading materials of disposable sanitary products in China, and investment meltblown fabrics in February of 20 years. All of them benefit from the demand growth of nonwoven fabrics caused by the short term epidemic, and the long-term downstream demand is released to open up the growth space.

Risk analysis: the impact of the epidemic is lower than expected, raw material prices fluctuate, competition intensifies, customer orders transfer.