In June, The Performance Of Leading Housing Enterprises Is Still Expected To Remain Hidden In The Second Half Of The Year.

The expected recovery of the property market has extended to the stock market. July 1-2, real estate stocks rose for two consecutive days, sending the market's optimism about real estate.

5, June, the property market fever greatly exceeded the previous expectations, Biguiyuan, Hengda, Vanke, Greentown and other leading companies still achieved good results, all of which, with the announcement of the final in the end of 6 and the announcement of the performance of Hengda and other companies, reflected the stock market.

In the first half of the year, the property market ended optimistically. But in the second half of the year, housing prices are still facing great pressure. Under the complex environment such as epidemic situation and macro-economy, it is difficult for the housing enterprises to go to difficulties, the cash flow is under pressure, plus debt repayment peak year, many small and medium-sized Housing enterprises are hovering on the edge of bankruptcy.

At the Vanke shareholders' meeting in June 30th, Yu Liang, President of Vanke and chairman of the board of directors, emphasized that in the face of the uncertain market, Vanke's financial principle was "cash is king, and there is surplus grain for the hand" to cope with the possible crisis or to find opportunities for mergers and acquisitions.

In June, the total sales of top 100 housing enterprises reached 1 trillion and 451 billion 720 million yuan, an increase of 13.8% over the same period last year. Map Vision China

The market is suddenly optimistic.

In the second half of the year, the real estate stocks burst for a long time. In July 1st, the A share real estate sector rose by 5.13%. In July 2nd, the real estate sector continued to grow strongly, up to 3.57%, of which, Taihe, greenbelt and Jinke three housing companies were two consecutive trading days.

Song Ding, the tourism and real estate research center of China comprehensive research institute, believes that the reason for the rise of real estate stocks is that in addition to the July 1st central bank's downward adjustment in refinancing and discount interest rates, the first half sales performance of several housing companies has exceeded the industry's expectations and has greatly boosted market confidence.

Everbright Securities pointed out that the current macro liquidity is abundant, and the marginal improvement of capital margins has benefited from the path dependence of banks' mortgage delivery, the concentrated release of the demand for overhang of the epidemic, the push of the housing enterprises to push the market, and the short-term warming of the home ownership sentiment.

In the first half of the year, especially in the first quarter, the housing market suddenly fell into the winter due to the outbreak of the black swan. Real estate stocks are also in the doldrums. The overall growth of A share real estate sector is only 0.32%, and most investors are pessimistic.

But the magic is that the market gradually stabilized and recovered rapidly in 3-5 months. After entering June, the market accelerated to pick up and speed up. In June, the total sales of top 100 housing enterprises reached 1 trillion and 451 billion 720 million yuan, an increase of 13.8% over the same period last year.

In the first half of 2020, the report cards of the first half of the housing sector turned out to be "reversed", which surprised the investors.

In the first half of this year, Hengda achieved sales of 348 billion 840 million yuan, sales area of 38 million 632 thousand square meters, and sales refunds of 312 billion yuan, up 23.8%, 47.5%, 66.5%, respectively. Among them, contract sales and sales return data have reached the highest level in Hengda history.

And the country garden is still crowning champion. According to Kerri data, the sales volume of country garden in the first half of the year was 372 billion 310 million yuan, a slight decrease compared with that of last year (389 billion 540 million yuan), but it still leads its peers. As the impact of the epidemic subsided gradually, the performance of the country garden was quickly repaired. Just over the long holiday of the Dragon Boat Festival, the subscription amount of Biguiyuan rights reached 10 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 50% over the same period last year.

Vanke's sales ranking declined, but still ranked third at 318 billion yuan. The president of Vanke expressed his determination to win the championship at the shareholders' meeting in June 30th.

In 2019, the amount of sales entered Jinmao for the first time in TOP20, rising rapidly during the epidemic period, ranking 12 in 102 billion 870 million yuan, and 51% in the annual performance target completion rate.

In addition, some housing companies such as Shimao, Greentown, Yuzhou and flower calendar also performed well, and the cumulative performance increased year-on-year. Such as Jindi, Shimao and Merchants Shekou in the first half of the year increased by 19%, 10% and 9% respectively, which effectively stimulated market sentiment.

Overall, the sales situation of top 100 housing companies is better than expected. Sales reached 44973 billion yuan in the first half, a slight decrease of 1.1% over the same period last year. Under such an epidemic, it has been beyond expectations.

CEO Ding Zuyu pointed out that in 2020 only half a year ago, the country's 100 billion housing enterprises had reached 13, an increase of 1 over the first half of 2019, an increase of 6 over 2018.

Ding Zuyu lamented that housing sales in the first half of this year exceeded expectations. The forecast for sales in February and March was still conservative. It was thought that the housing sales could not rise and the year-on-year rise last year, but I did not expect some of them to pick up very quickly, even exceeding the same period last year.

Uncertainty remains in the second half of the year

Behind the steady fundamentals of the market, the differentiation of housing prices is also intensifying.

On the one hand, TOP10 housing companies perform well and are far ahead of the big cities. On the other hand, the scale of the tail Housing enterprises has been reduced rapidly, and the concentration of the industry has been continuously strengthened.

Haitong Securities pointed out that compared to 2019 and 2020 1-6 month trading caliber sales threshold, the first half of the housing market 1-10 strong threshold increased 7%, while the 51-100 strong threshold fell by 12.5%. This trend will also spread to the property market in the second half of the year to further enhance the concentration of industries.

At the same time, the second half of the property market still has multiple effects from the industry and macroeconomic environment.

In this regard, CITIC expressed concern: "the new crown epidemic impact is obvious, the global economy as a whole slowed down, affecting part of the residents' income, credit expansion, mortgage repayment and consumer spending; Housing enterprises debt repayment peak, some of the small and medium-sized Housing enterprises credit risk increased; office building rental rates and rent levels decline; the level of consumption expenditure may affect the retail and storage property rentals."

Ding Zuyu added further: "the profit of Housing enterprises is increased from assessment to impairment. Large enterprises with large holding assets should be prepared for impairment. There is one point which I think needs to be reminded. From the perspective of annual profit, the assessment of business and office buildings may be impaired this year. Therefore, large scale housing companies should be prepared for impairment.

In June 30th, Vanke shareholders' meeting, the chief executive of the Vanke Group, said: "the external environment is highly complex and uncertain. In the medium and long term, the industry has entered the era of stock competition. The market has changed from a seller's market to a buyer's market, and the overall strength of enterprises has become more serious. But the huge volume of the industry still provides a lot of opportunities for enterprises to develop.

But housing does not stir the tone unchanged, Ding Zuyu believes that as long as the real estate can be stabilized, the overall economy can be stabilized.

For example, land tax and real estate direct tax directly affect local fiscal revenue. In the first half of the year, the 50 largest cities sold 2 trillion and 290 billion, up 17.3% compared to the same period last year. If the gross sales amount was 10%, roughly 16 trillion of the sales revenue last year was about 1 trillion and 600 billion, which had a huge impact on the revenue.

Therefore, steady and healthy development is the keynote and bottom line of the real estate industry. Based on this understanding, we can make a clear judgement of the industry trend.

Ke Rui pointed out that although the market in the first half of the rapid recovery, but the second half of the market still need a long time to recover, coupled with the uncertainty of the epidemic, the industry as a whole to pressure, the three quarter turnover may fall, it is expected that in 2020 the annual sales scale will be reduced by about 5%, the sales volume will be basically the same as last year.

For the future, leading housing enterprises have been prepared early. For example, Vanke Yu Liang and Zhu Chun Sheng emphasized that the current financial principle of Vanke is "cash is king and hands have surplus grain".

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