June Sales Good, Listed Pig Enterprises Report "Outbreak" Mixed With Long And Short Factors, Board Valuation Showed Signs Of Fatigue

In recent days, animal husbandry and breeding enterprises in June sales monthly report and forecast have been published.

New hope, Tang Renshen, Zhenghong technology, Dabei agriculture and other companies successively disclosed the pig sales data in June. Prior to this, the sales briefing of muyuan shares, Wenshi shares, aonong biology, Zhengbang technology, Tiankang biology and other enterprises were announced in advance.

Under the influence of new crown pneumonia and other factors, the pig price in the first half of the year has gone out of a "V" curve. Since the second quarter, with the recovery of consumption and the decrease of large pig sales, pork prices have rebounded significantly. In particular, the average sales price and sales income of listed pig enterprises in June have risen sharply, and the overall price fluctuates at a high level.

The 21st century economic report reporter noted that although the volume of major listed pig enterprises decreased year on year due to African swine fever and other factors, many listed pig enterprises expected their revenue and profits to increase significantly in the first half of the year, such as muyuan shares, new hope, Tiankang biology, Tang Renshen and other net profits soared more than 100 times.

"In the first half of the year, there has been a trend that some of the prices will be subsidized by volume. In addition, although the overall price in the second quarter has fallen, the price has gone up since the end of May. Although the overall average price in the second quarter is slightly lower than that in the first quarter, the price is still relatively strong. But the quantity has some companies to put more obvious, which leads to the overall profitability of the second quarter is better than that of the first quarter. " A senior livestock industry observer pointed out on August 8.

Pig price rebounded in June

The rebound in pig prices, which began in late May, has continued.

According to the latest data released by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, as of 14:00 on July 8, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 47.29 yuan, up 0.4% from the previous day. 40 days ago, on May 28, the average price of pork in the wholesale market of agricultural products in China was only 38.55 yuan. In a short period of 40 days, the price of pork rose nearly 9 yuan.

This trend can also be seen from the monthly sales reports of pig enterprises in June.

The average selling price of commercial pigs of muyuan Co., a leading pig breeding company, was 31.41 yuan / kg in June, 19.89% higher than the average price in May. By the end of June 2020, the company's stock of breeding sows was 1911000;

In June, the average selling price of wool pigs of Wenshi shares was 33.35 yuan / kg, with a month on month increase of 12.63%. However, the sales volume of pigs of the company decreased year on year over the same period. Wen's shares said that the main reasons were the decrease of the company's overall vaccination in the previous stage, the increase of breeding pig selection and the increase of pig weight.

The average selling price of commercial pigs of tianbang biology in June was 64.42 yuan / kg (33.36 yuan / kg after excluding the influence of piglet and breeding pig prices), with a month on month increase of 19.09%. From January to June 2020, tianbang biological Co., Ltd. sold 1.1197 million commercial pigs with a sales revenue of 3.787 billion yuan, with an average sales price of 55.60 yuan / kg (32.54 yuan / kg after excluding the impact of piglet and breeding pig prices), with year-on-year changes of - 26.21%, 67.14% and 336.11%, respectively.

Tianbang Bio said that from January to June 2020, the company's pig sales decreased year-on-year, and the sales revenue and average sales price increased significantly year-on-year. Firstly, the output of pig industry decreased due to African swine plague, and the pig market price increased significantly year-on-year; secondly, the proportion of breeding pigs and piglets in the company's sales composition was relatively high.

Overall, the average selling price of commercial pigs of more than ten listed pig enterprises in June was 30-34 yuan / kg, which was 10% - 20% higher than that in May.

"The sharp drop in pig prices in May was mainly due to the lower than expected demand, which led to the selling of farmers. The first reason is that some colleges and universities have opened school, and the basic demand has risen slightly; the second reason is that the price of pork has dropped to a certain extent, but the cost has increased compared with previous years, so farmers are generally reluctant to sell; the third reason is that the wholesale market has been affected by the epidemic situation; and finally, it is difficult to export the pork in the rainy season in June , the weather is also hot, there is a certain demand gap in the market. " On July 8, Li Wenxu, an analyst of the pig industry of the business association, pointed out in an interview.

The Chinese newspaper broke out

The strong rebound of average sales price and income in June also marks a perfect end to the achievement of listed pig enterprises in the first half of 2020.

According to the incomplete statistics of 21st century economic report, up to now, 12 listed pig enterprises have issued interim report forecast in 2020. After removing some stocks facing huge internal control and operation risks, other listed companies have ushered in a big performance explosion.

Among them, muyuan shares, with the largest performance growth, is expected to achieve a net profit of 10.5-11 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 6843.74% - 7164.87%. The company pointed out that "under the influence of African swine plague, the domestic pig production capacity decreased significantly, and the contradiction between supply and demand of pork market was prominent. The sharp rise in pig price in the first half of 2020 compared with the same period of last year was the main reason for turning the net profit into profit in the reporting period.".

Xinwufeng is expected to make a profit of 160 million to 240 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2561.86% - 3892.79%; DaBeiNong also expects to make a profit of about 800 million to 1.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2279.39% - 3171.66%; Tang Renshen is expected to achieve a profit of about 400 million to 450 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 788.58% - 899.66%.

"The industry will not cross the breakeven point until May in 2019. At that time, the cost of the whole industry was generally around 13 yuan to 15 yuan / kg. From January to May of 2019, all of them lost money, and they began to make money in June. Therefore, the growth rate of this year's interim report is quite amazing, mainly because the base number in 2019 is very low." The senior observer said.

However, despite the booming performance of the Zhongbao, the stock price trend of animal husbandry plate is not prominent compared with other plates.

Muyuan shares showed a long negative line the next day after the announcement of the interim report, down 1.11%; after the announcement of Tang Renshen, the stock price only rose slightly by 1.09%. Since the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index has only increased by 14.03%, which is lower than that of the Shanghai Composite Index.

"Mainly compared with last year and the year before last, the stock price has been in a relatively high position, and the rise of pig price has pulled up the plate valuation." Li Wenxu pointed out.

However, looking forward to the second half of the year, pig prices are facing more risk factors, and the breeding industry is intertwined.

A more significant sign is that all leading enterprises will focus on the sales in the second half of 2020. For example, the 2019 annual report of muyuan shares plans to "sell 17.5 million to 20 million pigs in 2020". The company's total sales in the first six months of this year were 6.781 million, which means that more than two-thirds of the company's sales will be concentrated in the second half of the year.

The number of pigs to be produced this year will reach 9 million. Among them, the first half of the market is about 30% and the second half is about 70%.

New hope also pointed out in its investor relations activities that the annual target was 8 million, about 1.2 million in the second quarter, 2 million in the third quarter and about 4 million in the fourth quarter.

"At present, the main factor still depends on the export situation. If the epidemic situation is stable, the export volume will increase, and all major companies will expand production, and the supply of the whole pig market and meat market will increase in the second half of the year. At the end of the year, there was no concentrated consumption demand in Colleges and universities. At present, the recovery of catering industry is not very good, terminal demand is a relatively stable state. " Li Wenxu said.

He further pointed out: "therefore, if there is no external force and force majeure in the future, the pig price will not rise so fast. At most, it will only rise slightly, and then fluctuate slightly around the current level."

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