Shenzhen'S Second-Hand House Transaction Hit A Four-Year High In June

Shenzhen's property market, which recovered the fastest from the epidemic, came out of a wave of independent market in the first half of the year. In the past June, there were 10000 second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen, with a total of 44000 units in the first half of the year, which was close to the "bull market" volume in 2015 and reached a new high since 2016.

After the epidemic situation entered the normalization prevention and control, the monetary policy was loose, and part of the funds flowed to the real estate market, especially in Shenzhen, where the purchase restriction threshold was relatively low, which became a "sweet cake" in the eyes of buyers all over the country.

In the eyes of some people in the industry, it seems that the law of supply and demand in Shenzhen is false. Recently, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development sent people to Shenzhen to investigate and discuss the trend of the property market with a number of Shenzhen insiders.

A new regulatory policy may be brewing. Shenzhen property market urgently needs a "visible hand" to smooth the heat and return to the track of long-term and stable development.

The heat keeps going up

The sun is scorching in July, and Shenzhen's property market is hotter than the temperature.

Since March, the popularity of new housing market in Shenzhen has not decreased.

Second hand housing also entered the fast lane of recovery. According to the National Bureau of statistics, from March to may, Shenzhen led the country in terms of price increase of second-hand housing, with a month on month increase of about 1.6%, and a year-on-year increase from 9.7% to 12.0%, ranking in the top 5 of 70 cities.

The heat of Shenzhen property market continued in June. According to the data of Zhongyuan Research Center, 3343 new housing units were sold in Shenzhen in June, up 6.4% month on month; the transaction area was 336000 square meters, up 11.5% month on month.

After four years, the number of second-hand houses has broken through ten thousand units again. In June, a total of 10594 units were sold, up 23.9% month on month, returning to the level of March 2016. The average price of second-hand houses has also reached a new high. According to the data of China Real Estate Association, the average price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen broke through the 70000 mark in June, reaching 74929 yuan / square meter. The average price was far more than 20% higher than that of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, up 14.37% compared with the end of last year, the second highest in China.

According to the data of Shenzhen leyoujia Research Center, in the first half of the year, 16727 new housing units were sold in the new housing market, and the inventory on sale dropped to 6-7 months; the second-hand house transaction hit a six-year high in four years, reaching 44000 units, up 41% year-on-year.

And all this happened in the environment of normalization of epidemic prevention and control. In the first half of the year, Shenzhen's per capita income has deviated from the macro-economy?

Li Yujia, the chief researcher of Guangdong Province's housing policy research center, believes that the rise in housing policy in the first half of the year is mainly attributed to the optimistic housing policy of Shenzhen province. Most buyers believe that monetary policy will continue to be loose in the future, while houses will maintain their value.

"Shenzhen is the first tier city with the most relaxed restrictions on purchase. At the same time, under the loose liquidity, there are a large number of buyers for tens of millions of houses. If the above channels are closed, even if the supply does not increase, the Shenzhen property market will be much quieter. " A senior Shenzhen industry personage pointed out that Shenzhen's relaxed purchase restriction policy makes it easy to obtain tickets for investment in Shenzhen's real estate. In Shenzhen, undergraduate students can settle down and buy a house. In the first half of this year, many people specially settled in Shenzhen to buy a house.

In other words, it is not entirely the real demand for self occupied housing that is supporting the property market. The houses in Shenzhen have been "investment oriented". According to the data of Zhongyuan in Shenzhen, since March, the proportion of investment demand in the market has approached 40%, which is almost the level in the bull market from 2015 to 2016.

Regulatory expectations are emerging

In such a hot market of national attention, the voice of "seeking stability" in Shenzhen property market is getting higher and higher.

"Recently, I have participated in several seminars and symposiums on Shenzhen's real estate and real estate market. The theme is almost the same: how to stabilize the property market in Shenzhen." Song Ding, director of the tourism and real estate research center of China Academy of comprehensive development, said.

On July 4, Ni Hong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, went to Shenzhen for investigation and held a forum with developers and intermediary agencies such as Vanke, China Resources and shell.

All participants mentioned the shortage of supply. Jiang Muchuan, general manager of South China region of China Resources Land, said that the small supply of residential land in Shenzhen is an important reason for the shortage of commercial housing in Shenzhen and the pressure of rising house prices.

Vanke Group partner Tan Huajie pointed out that Shenzhen's land development rate is not high enough. He said that the current land development rate of Shenzhen is 40%, and that of Tokyo, Japan, is 70%.

In addition, the participants also pointed out that there was a surplus of office buildings in Shenzhen, and they proposed to speed up the implementation of the "business to housing" policy in Shenzhen.

But these proposals and measures can not work on the current hot property market, there are still strong expectations of administrative regulation and control in the market.

Although the Ministry of housing and urban rural development did not release the information to strengthen regulation and control, the market overreacted, rumors spread everywhere, and even spread the "hearsay news" that a new regulation and control policy would be issued immediately.

The second-hand housing market rose sharply in the short-term, and the data was 7.0% in the short-term. On July 7, the Shenzhen real estate intermediary Association refuted the rumor and denied the above rumors.

How does Shenzhen property market go next? Will regulation be introduced? Zhongyuan Real Estate believes that recently, with the obvious rise in housing prices in many cities, tightening regulatory policies have begun to appear. Hangzhou, Ningbo, Dongguan and other places have recently tightened the regulation of the property market.

Liu Liqin, vice president of leyoujia marketing, and other industry insiders predict that there is a great possibility of the introduction of Shenzhen's regulatory policies.

However, Li Yujia believes that the real demand for real estate market is not due to the deep demand of real estate market. In the short term, the regulatory authorities need to innovate regulatory means and refine policies. It is suggested that the financial and housing sectors should cooperate to make substantive moves.

Song Ding pointed out that the core problem of Shenzhen's property market is the serious shortage of long-term land supply. The limited supply has become the subject of speculation by investment speculators, which leads to the rise of false fire and high house prices.

He said that policies guide public opinion to play a role in stabilizing expectations, which is of course necessary for the volatile Shenzhen property market. In the long run, we should start from the supply side and effectively improve the imbalance between supply and demand, which is the root cause.

According to the Shenzhen Bureau of housing and urban rural development, 69350 commercial housing units are planned to enter the market in 2020, including 50618 residential units. In the first half of the year, less than 10000 units were sold in advance. In other words, in the second half of the year, there are still 40000 commercial housing units to enter the market.

However, this is still a short-term measure, which can only alleviate the supply-demand relationship this year.

Li Yujia believes that in order to resolve the "high housing prices" in Shenzhen, it is necessary to jump out of Shenzhen, let the large Shenzhen comprehensive cooperation demonstration zone be implemented as soon as possible, take the provincial overall planning right and incremental dividend (GDP and tax) sharing as the incentive mechanism and starting point, and implement the overall planning of land use, rail transit, public supporting, industrial layout and cross-border planning in the cooperation demonstration area, In order to solve the problem of insufficient land supply.

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