Polyester End Accumulation Obvious, Ethylene Glycol Continued To Bear Pressure

Driven by the strong performance of international crude oil, the recent commodity pattern continues to be stronger. However, the terminal orders are not optimistic, and there is an expectation that weaving will reduce the negative in summer. In the near future, the promotion of polyester end is not good. In the face of rising inventory pressure, the polyester end has strong negative reduction expectation, and ethylene glycol may continue to be under pressure under the condition of poor demand.

Poor order situation, polyester end accumulation again

Figure 1 polyester finished product inventory comparison trend chart

Source: Longzhong information

In summer, due to the weather and public health events, the domestic demand and foreign trade orders are not ideal. In addition, due to the previous bottom reading behavior, the stock of weaving raw materials is on the high side. Under the constraints of multiple factors, the purchasing enthusiasm of weaving end is not good recently. Recently, the end of the month promotion effect of polyester end is not ideal, the factory's finished product inventory is rising. Among them, the weighted inventory of filament has reached 22.8 days, which is relatively high. Although the stock of staple fiber and chip is neutral, there are also different degrees of accumulation. Once again, the negative pressure on the pet market will be reflected by the weak load.

The phenomenon of serious detention in Hong Kong, ethylene glycol inventory inflection point is difficult to appear

Figure 2 Comparison trend of ethylene glycol inventory in East China

Source: Longzhong information

As a result of public health events, poor foreign demand and the release of new production in the United States, domestic imports have been greatly increased in 2020. However, the domestic polyester load dropped sharply from February to March, resulting in a large amount of ethylene glycol accumulated in the reservoir area. After a large amount of ethylene glycol was accumulated in China from February to March, the accumulation rate slowed down. As of July 2, the domestic ethylene glycol inventory had reached 1350400 tons, a new record. At present, the storage capacity of the port is limited, and there are a lot of detention phenomena in the main port, and the detention time of the main port is generally about 7 days. Combined with the current delivery rhythm, it is difficult to realize the inflection point of port inventory in the short term.

The strong performance of international crude oil has driven up the price of naphtha and ethylene. At present, the gross profit of each process market of ethylene glycol is in a state of total loss. The market valuation of ethylene glycol is on the low side. In the medium and long term, it is optimistic about ethylene glycol. However, the industrial perspective is not optimistic. Although the domestic production return is not as expected, the pessimism of the demand side and the suppression of high inventory will still put pressure on the short-term ethylene glycol.